Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
26 Capital Corp (ADERU) is a new at-NAV SPAC with world-leading online gambling expertise - worth a bet
EDIT - one week after i posted this, Britain's most successful hedge fund manager Michael Platt has taken a 6.5% stake tl;dr At-NAV new SPAC with world-leading expertise in online gambling. Worth a bet on potential to be next DKNG on the hype train
+++++++ Hi all - have had a lot of great tips from this sub. Hopefully this pays some of you back. I have been watching and researching this since 23 December when it first filed S1, awaiting the units to be listed - they are available today trading as ADERU Positions - 500 units @ 10.42 to start. Will be monitoring and building position below $15, especially if attention starts to build ahead of units and warrants splitting and shares coming available to Robinhood. (My other SPAC positions are OPEN, IPO-E-F, PSTH, FUSE, PIPP, ACTC, CCIV and DMYD, 100 to 1000 shares each mostly around NAV and numerous warrants and options around these.) As ever, this is not investment advice and do your own research +++++++
26 Capital Acquisition Corp or ADER is a 240m SPAC with usual terms - 10$ units, 1/2 warrants. Seeking a merger in "gaming and gaming technology, branded consumer, lodging and entertainment, and Internet commerce sectors". I think this is highly worth a play on the online gambling hype if you can get in at near NAV, based entirely on the management which is unbeatable in its knowledge of the gambling industry
CEO Jason Ader has held director level positions at Las Vegas Sands Corp. ($42bn one of biggest casino groups in world), IGT (£3.72bn multinational gambling firm specialised in software and slot machines) and Playtech (£1.4bn multinational gambling software firm) Before starting his own fund in 2013 he was regularly ranked Wall Street's top analyst on the gambling and leisure sector His fund, Spring Owl Capital, is a small activist fund focused on gambling and leisure. They are probably most famous for ousting the CEO of Viacom in 2016 and a crusade against Yahoo CEO Marissa Meyer in 2015. Ader knows the gambling - and online gambling - industry inside out. He drove bWin to a £1.1bn takeover by gambling giant GVC (now Entain) in 2016, and has been driving similar change and demands for improvement at board level at Playtech The fund mostly manages money for a select group of wealthy families, which could be a positive sign for the SPAC (although I don't know how much skin in the SPAC the fund has, if any) Here is a video of Ader from November talking about how he's excited about SPACs. He talks about how he has been advising certain States about legalising sports betting and how to maximise value and liquidity by linking up with European companies in the space (Playtech e.g.??). Ader is extremely bullish on US legalising online casino and more sports betting options, accelerated by need for revenue because of pandemic
Rafi Ashkenazi One of the most highly respected names in the online gambling world, including COO and CEO positions at major online gambling firms such as Playtech and Stars Group (a world leader in online poker and casino). At Stars he led the $4.7bn takeover of Sky Betting to create the world's largest publicly listed online betting firm in 2018. Most recently he led the £10bn merger between Flutter (biggest gambling company in world by revenue, market cap £26bn), and Stars Group (Ader also involved). Also has connections into the booming Israel tech space which is interesting
Joseph Kaminkow Special Advisor to the Chief Product Officer at Aristocrat, a leading gambling software provider and games publisher, previously Vice President of Game Design at Zynga Inc. This guy is a former video game / pinball designer who is credited with revolutionising the slots industry after moving into gambling software from video games in 1999. Regarded as a "legend" and "hall of famer" in this niche. At Zynga he designed so-called 'social casino games' which don't involve real-money gambling but are otherwise basically gambling apps (revenue from microtransactions etc). 130 patents on gambling/gaming design inventions
Greg Lyss This is a very interesting but extremely low profile person. He was Bill Ackman a.k.a SPACman's right hand man at Gotham Capital. Ackman respected him so much that when Ackman set up a personal hedge fund to invest the Ackman family's money, he put Lyss in charge of it. To repeat - Bill Ackman thinks this guy is such a good investor and trustworthy that he put him in charge of investing his family's money. Don't know anything more about him, but I like this association with Ackman, which suggests to me some integrity around management of this SPAC, especially as the gambling world can be very murky. The other member of the team is the CFO of SpringOwl with 20+ years' hedge fund experience and not notable (although clearly competent)
Thesis / potential targets Based on the above experience and many public comments by Ader over the past year, I would be very surprised if ADER is not looking to merge with an online gambling technology provider / existing online betting website / social casino app / possibly a supporting technology provider They are activist inventors, and specifically say in the IPO prospectus that they could look for businesses that can benefit from turnaround or are not being run well. I speculate that their deep knowledge of the European / global online gambling industry means they have a target in mind that they think would benefit from their expertise and US liberalisation of gambling legislation.
1) Ader believes the listing of UK-listed gambling companies in US is immediately big in terms of market cap because of the premium on online gambling stocks in US. He has pitched DraftKings to takeover Playtech and called on Playtech to spin off non-core business. This makes me wonder if he would spin off some element of Playtech to list in US to cash in on gambling hype. This might be Finalto.com / TradeTech which is an online financial platform owned by Playtech. Playtech has been trying to sell this for 200 - 240m since August so it fits. This company provides liquidity and trading to brokerages and runs markets.com a trading site. I wouldn't be that excited although apparently the business has been booming during COVID and there could be a decent pop just on fintech hype.
2) This could be a 'picks and shovel' type data/B2B betting software play a la DMYD, or something like e.g. Israel based CRM software Optimove which works with some of biggest online gambling cos and has links to Ashkenazi. This would be interesting but probably not a huge pop
3) Possibly - given Ader's links to Sands - an online gambling tie-up with one of the big Vegas casinos who are desperate to get into the online betting space (see MGM's attempt to buy Entain for $8bn last week). Interestingly, Sands' owner Sheldon Adelson, previously a major opponent of online betting, has just died. Ader predicted a few months ago that Sands would be moving in this direction.
“There’s no stopping online gaming,” Ader said [before Adelson's death]. “(Las Vegas Sands’) initiatives to stop online gaming, at this stage, are largely historic. There hasn’t been a lot of spending recently to do that, especially post-pandemic.” “I think the company will see the value created by DraftKings and FanDuel and Penn (National) Gaming and others. They’re not foolish,” Ader added. source
4) Ader is very confident that Macau will legalise online gambling in next year or two. Sands is big in Macau, the biggest gambling market in the world. A SaaS-type product positioned to capitalise on Asian gambling would be MASSIVE - at present however, China's attitude to gambling and local regulations mean this is unlikely
5) I also wonder if they might try to take legitimate one of the offshore bookmakers with big customer databases and brand recognition but which have been grey-area/illegal under US gaming legislation. For example, Five Dimes recently announced a settlement with the FBI to attempt to transition into newly legalised US markets. This might have the most hype potential
Potential upside This is entirely a play on management experience and the meme factor / hype around online gambling in the US. I think if they pick a good target - which given their experience and connections seems likely - and get the right publicity and attention from retail investors looking for the next DKNG this could easily 3x and maybe 5-6x if on DKNG-type hype levels. There is currently little spotlight on this and it is a good time to get in at NAV
Potential Downside
Ader has been vocal that he thinks US online betting is overvalued and in a bubble - why is he starting his own SPAC in the space then? Does he just want to cash in while the hype is at all-time high or does he have a legitimate business goal?
If he just wants to dump a part of Playtech which he does not like onto retail investors, this is a bad deal.
Other targets could be e.g. hotel industry or other leisure sector which would be zero sexiness to retail. Given Ashkenazi and Kaminkow's background this seems unlikely though
Usual SPAC caveats apply about potential difficulty finding a target, locking up your money for unspecified period of time, and the fact I may have completely misread the potential and my above thesis might be totally wrong
The next Detroit: The catastrophic collapse of Atlantic City
With the closure of almost half of Atlantic City's casinos, Newark set to vote on gambling and casinos or racinos in almost every state, it seems as if the reasons for the very existence of Atlantic City are in serious jeopardy. Israel Joffe Atlantic City, once a major vacation spot during the roaring 20s and 1930s, as seen on HBOs Boardwalk Empire, collapsed when cheap air fare became the norm and people had no reason to head to the many beach town resorts on the East Coast. Within a few decades, the city, known for being an ‘oasis of sin’ during the prohibition era, fell into serious decline and dilapidation. New Jersey officials felt the only way to bring Atlantic City back from the brink of disaster would be to legalize gambling. Atlantic City’s first casino, Resorts, first opened its doors in 1978. People stood shoulder to shoulder, packed into the hotel as gambling officially made its way to the East Coast. Folks in the East Coast didn't have to make a special trip all the way to Vegas in order to enjoy some craps, slots, roulette and more. As time wore on, Atlantic City became the premier gambling spots in the country. While detractors felt that the area still remained poor and dilapidated, officials were quick to point out that the casinos didn't bring the mass gentrification to Atlantic City as much as they hoped but the billions of dollars in revenue and thousands of jobs for the surrounding communities was well worth it. Atlantic City developed a reputation as more of a short-stay ‘day-cation’ type of place, yet managed to stand firm against the 'adult playground' and 'entertainment capital of the world' Las Vegas. Through-out the 1980s, Atlantic City would become an integral part of American pop culture as a place for east coast residents to gamble, watch boxing, wrestling, concerts and other sporting events. However in the late 1980s, a landmark ruling considered Native-American reservations to be sovereign entities not bound by state law. It was the first potential threat to the iron grip Atlantic City and Vegas had on the gambling and entertainment industry. Huge 'mega casinos' were built on reservations that rivaled Atlantic City and Vegas. In turn, Vegas built even more impressive casinos. Atlantic City, in an attempt to make the city more appealing to the ‘big whale’ millionaire and billionaire gamblers, and in effort to move away from its ‘seedy’ reputation, built the luxurious Borgata casino in 2003. Harrah’s created a billion dollar extension and other casinos in the area went through serious renovations and re-branded themselves. It seemed as if the bite that the Native American casinos took out of AC and Vegas’ profits was negligible and that the dominance of those two cities in the world of gambling would remain unchallenged. Then Macau, formally a colony of Portugal, was handed back to the Chinese in 1999. The gambling industry there had been operated under a government-issued monopoly license by Stanley Ho's Sociedade de Turismo e Diversões de Macau. The monopoly was ended in 2002 and several casino owners from Las Vegas attempted to enter the market. Under the one country, two systems policy, the territory remained virtually unchanged aside from mega casinos popping up everywhere. All the rich ‘whales’ from the far east had no reason anymore to go to the United States to spend their money. Then came the biggest threat. As revenue from dog and horse racing tracks around the United States dried up, government officials needed a way to bring back jobs and revitalize the surrounding communities. Slot machines in race tracks started in Iowa in 1994 but took off in 2004 when Pennsylvania introduced ‘Racinos’ in an effort to reduce property taxes for the state and to help depressed areas bounce back. As of 2013, racinos were legal in ten states: Delaware, Louisiana, Maine, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia with more expected in 2015. Tracks like Delaware Park and West Virginia's Mountaineer Park, once considered places where local degenerates bet on broken-down nags in claiming races, are now among the wealthiest tracks around, with the best races. The famous Aqueduct race track in Queens, NY, once facing an uncertain future, now possesses the most profitable casino in the United States. From June 2012 to June 2013, Aqueduct matched a quarter of Atlantic City's total gaming revenue from its dozen casinos: $729.2 million compared with A.C.'s $2.9 billion. It has taken an estimated 15 percent hit on New Jersey casino revenue and climbing. And it isn't just Aqueduct that's taking business away from them. Atlantic City's closest major city, Philadelphia, only 35-40 minutes away, and one of the largest cities in America, now has a casino that has contributed heavily to the decline in gamers visiting the area. New Jersey is the third state in the U.S. to have authorized internet gambling. However, these online casinos are owned and controlled by Atlantic City casinos in an effort to boost profits in the face of fierce competition. California, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Texas are hoping to join Delaware, Nevada, New Jersey and the U.S. Virgin Islands in offering online gambling to their residents. With this in mind, it seems the very niche that Atlantic City once offered as a gambling and entertainment hub for east coast residents is heading toward the dustbin of history. Time will tell if this city will end up like Detroit. However, the fact that they are losing their biggest industry to major competition, much like Detroit did, with depressed housing, casinos bankrupting/closing and businesses fleeing , it all makes Atlantic City’s fate seem eerily similar.
The Sands Macau was the first of the new, Western-style casino opened in Macau, so it’s no surprise that it came with a lot of slot machine action. There are over 1,250 slots here, spread out over the length of a huge casino floor that seems to never end. One other cool thing for slots players here is that the Sands Macau has a special VIP area, the Pearl Room, which allows high rollers to play in relative seclusion. This section is notable because it also contains 180 higher-limit slots for big spenders to try their luck on. 고스톱 전략
I'm gonna pop off for a second. ZERO of these cucks care ANYTHING for you or your grandma, how do I know? Because they never complained about the gambling industry.
Gambling addiction has been shown to have the same pharmacological effects as opiates.
Casinos are designed to disorient and confuse patrons, from the lighting and carpeting to the key of machine sounds.
Nevada had the highest suicide rate in the nation from 1990-1994, according to statistics from the CDC.
In Gulfport, Mississippi, suicides increased by 213 percent in the first two years after casinos arrived. In neighboring Biloxi, suicide attempts jumped by 1,000 percent in the first year alone.
The National Council on Problem Gambling, citing various studies, reports that one in five pathological gamblers attempts suicide, a rate higher than for any other addictive disorder.
In the UK more than 2 million households are affected by problem gambling including 50,000 addicted minors. Suicide deaths every day increasingly include young, healthy males with good careers from stable families. This is worth reading.
Asia is even worse, with Macau generating about 8 times the revenue of Las Vegas, but Thailand, Korea, and India are also in very severe condition. Japan began the process of legalizing casino gambling in 2018, with a new agency established in 2020.
1 in 5 habitual gamblers attempts suicide
1 in 5 suicides is related to gambling (usually with no other health or psychological problems)
That's JUST the suicides. Not the drugs, prostitution, organized crime, alcohol, cigarettes, job problems, domestic problems, credit card interest, or whatever else people could be doing with their lives. It's just the suicides. Gambling was illegal in 48 states for over 100 years, but in the last ten years has risen almost perpendicularly. Ask anyone who works at a gas station or convenience store, daily lottery drawings and scratch-off tickets are almost a $100B industry - with some states legalizing lotteries as recently as January of 2020. Sports betting is almost as large, formally estimated at $85B. Casinos, together with strip clubs and the other forms of gambling listed above, are open and operating right now in states that continue to (illegally) force churches and businesses to shut down. By the way.
https://preview.redd.it/0wb3j9p9sa561.jpg?width=990&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d06ce3035344c1fc7af37672915fcda78ff27b3 A casino is generally a place of gaming for particular sorts of gambling games. Casinos can be found close to indoors, or adjacent to popular resorts, tourist hotels, restaurants, cruise ships, retail shops, and a number of other tourist attractions. Cases in Italy include the Casino di Imperia in Triompany, Italy; the Casino delle Acqui e Coin in Acqui; the Casino Perloga at Piacenza, Italy; the Casino Corso Vittorio Emanuele in Anfi; along with the Casino degli Studi in Modena, Italy. The Venetian Casino stands at Pula, Italy. In United States, Las Vegas is frequently included within this category คาสิโน. In the USA, there are roughly 700 licensed casinos, and almost as many unlicensed ones. In total, there are about two hundred accredited casinos, compared to one hundred or so unlicensed ones. Licensed casinos are subject to all applicable laws and regulations regarding gaming and bonded and insured providers and employees. Unlicensed casinos, on the other hand, are generally not subject to applicable laws regarding gambling and might operate almost everywhere. The very best way to get into a casino from the United States or any other nation is to go through a few of the many foreign casinos which are based here. Back in Macau alone, there are just three casinos which are completely or partially open to everybody, including visitors from the mainland United States. The Bellagio Hotel and Casino, the Venetian Resort Hotel Casino, and the Monte Carlo Casino are located near the main section of Macau City. The Beach Resort Casino in Negril, Jamaica, is another casino that is open to people traveling in the USA. These casinos are fully-enclosed and equipped with all of the Most Recent gaming gear, such as Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Sic Bo, Video Poker, Live Betting, Slot Machines, Roulette Tote, Wheel of Fortune, and more. Las Vegas is home to a number of the most lavish gaming establishments on the planet. It has arguably the best set of gambling and entertainment facilities anywhere on earth. Obviously, like anywhere else, there are a number of low excellent gambling establishments too. A lot of people travel to Las Vegas in the United States do not recognize the legitimate casinos till they arrive at their hotel and begin to gamble. The ideal way to avoid being scammed is to make sure that you research any casino that you intend to visit before you leave on your trip. There are a number of good informational sites available to help you to get the info that you want. Atlantic City is another fantastic destination for visitors looking to gamble their way to riches. The highly regarded Venetian Resort Casino is a landmark in Atlantic City. The hotel overlooks one of the most historic and beautiful squares in all of New Jersey. Another casino in Atlantic City is your Venetian Playhouse. This casino includes interactive displays, video games, roulette, slot machines, food courts, billiard tables, and much more. If you're interested in gaming, this is probably the best place in Atlantic City to see. Several other casinos are located across the Atlantic city. In addition to the aforementioned casinos, Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns a number of places in Atlantic City. The company also owns the currently closed Harrah's Lake Bingo Casino. Along with these two possessions, the Atlantic city also has the Bellagio Hotel and the Monte Carlo Resort.
Casino Sieger €5 free bonus no deposit required (Register)
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Casino Sieger Review
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Video poker: 15%
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Casino Sieger’s promotions are primarily focused on sports betting, but there are also a couple of good deals for casino users. There are raffles, tournaments and competitions that last for a certain period of time and bring you free spins, cash prizes and jackpots. This site is giving out €2 million in daily Drops and Wins, as well as free cash prizes in their monthly tournaments. You can maximize your bonuses by using the Build Your Bonus feature - every time you add money on your balance, you get a code for 0.5x multiplier on your last deposit that can add up to €100 bonus. So basically, if you deposit €100, you get a 50% bonus on the next deposit. Those punters who don’t like to do the math can simply use a nifty calculator in their Promotions section to see how much bonus they can get.
Casino Sieger Game Selection
Casino, Live Dealer, Jackpots
Casino Sieger features over one thousand popular games and covers all genres, themes and types of gaming. The platform provides a great overview of all games available; all you have to do is glance over the main menu, and then click the category you are interested in. And if you are on a hunt after a specific title, simply use the search bar - it works impeccably, and the results will be there immediately for you to click and play. This site includes live casino games, classic table games, slots, virtual sports, as well as sportsbooks, bingo, scratchcards and many other games that are not so common at online casinos.
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Live Casino
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Casino Sieger Help and Support
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About
Account
Contact
Bonus
Financial queries
Games
Sportsbooks
In addition to FAQ, there are also game guides that provide basic rules on how to play certain gaming titles.
News Heading into Friday July 24th 2020 NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH. THE TIME STAMPS ON THE FOLLOWING ARTICLES MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB. THE CREATOR OF THIS THREAD COMPILED THE FOLLOWING IN A QUICK MANNER AND DOES NOT ATTEST TO THE VERACITY OF THE INFORMATION BELOW. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING YOUR OWN SOURCES AND DOING YOUR OWN DD.
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WABC Westamerica Bancorporation to buyback 1.75M shares
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What if Thailand still retained Siem Reap (Angkor Wat) now?
What if Mahidol did not die, and Thailand snubbed France, which would have its ass whacked in Vietnam in the very near future and would not be in a shape to think too much about Thailand, had to acquiesce Thailand ceded a lot of territories to French Indochina during the late 19th century, and after Nazis conquered France on 1940, the Thais took some parts of what we now call Cambodia, which Thailand used to rule. However, on 1946, following a bizarre incident when the young king Mahidol died of an unexplained gunshot wound, Thailand entered into a political crisis. Seeing the opportunity, France demanded back the territories Thailand had taken in 1941 and the Thai govt gave them back. Circumstances are rather unclear in this period of Thailand's history. What if Mahidol did not die, and Thailand snubbed France, which would have its ass whacked in Vietnam in the very near future and would not be in a shape to think too much about Thailand, had to acquiesce to Thai having Siem Reap? Then SR would have become a bigger tourist attraction now, since it would never have fallen under communism. SR was only developed in the 1990s; before that it was in the jungle, not many people cared about it. But, more importantly, Cambodia would have been more fucked up than now. The Siem Reap ruins was Cambodia's biggest source of foreign currency, and the covid, which basically ended international travel, has basically put the country in a bad position. Cambodia has opened up its casinos to cater to asian gamblers since Macau is still closed to non-Chinese, but that is a small consolation. Cambodia shorn of its biggest source of foreign currency would have made it as fucked up as Laos, and it would only be remembered as Pol Pot. No one would have had any reason to visit it, like not too many people visiting Laos, while Thailand's tourism industry would have thrived even more. What France did for a symbolic gesture benefited the Cambodians, who were probably not the very people who built the temple (which is Hindu) anyways. Whether that was just or not, I do not know.
As requested, I will provide DD for NAT, DHT Holdings and MGM based on votes from my previous thread. I'll start with the tankers. (Let me note that I do not expect the general market trend to be positive for the next few weeks) Preface: Positive Virus news is generally bad for Tanker company share prices. NAT Current share price: $6.12 EPS Q1 2019: $0.04 EPS Q1 2020 Estimate: $0.26 Earnings: 5/18 (Per NAT website, Thanks u/Nice_Block) NAT operates Suezmax size tankers, the next step down from VLCC, and daily prices for Suezmax's are considerably less than VLCC. Current spot price is up 141% at $3.92 bpd from March of 2019 to March of 2020. I think that this earnings estimate is roughly accurate, but suezmax vessels have more room for positive price movement as more and more storage is filled to capacity. Suezmax ships allow producers more maneuverability and fluidity to store their oil, as such, turnover rates are higher than VLCC vessels. Revenues at current prices indicate an earnings estimate closer to $0.36. This is the high end of earnings estimates. Additionally, demand for oil consumption is not likely to improve soon. If anything, a slow reopening of states without ports will not affect tanker company bottom lines and will extend the operating duration of oil producers in the permian. Keep in mind, if oil consumption does not increase, wells will either shut down, or more likely, prices will go negative again. This may have some effect on spot price for tanker transports. That said, spot prices are not likely to diminish significantly in the near future. As a bonus, NAT recently (like yesterdayish) approved a buyback program to take advantage of increased revenues. This is the best news for NAT holders at this time. Their true intentions will be reflected in the earnings call. Price Target: $8 in the short term. If quarantine continues through June with no oil production cuts, I would expect at $10+ is possible, but unlikely. Historical action levels: https://imgur.com/a/dzsAZop One week chart showing some consolidation for a potential breakout: https://imgur.com/a/10DZWE7 Note - I suggested this as a bullish play last weekend, and as such my $8 price target was hit on Tuesday. This ship may have already sailed. Pun intended. I would find another trade. Recommendation: If you are dead set on an NAT play, shares at a reduced price through earnings, or options with expiry longer than 45 days out purchased next week. DHT Holdings Current share price: 7.10 EPS Q1 2019: $0.13 EPS Q1 2020 Estimate: $0.57 Earnings: 5/5 DHT operates operates exclusively VLCC tankers, of which the majority are on spot price rental. Current spot price for VLCC tankers up to 180k/day, up from an average of 19k/day this time last year. This is an over 9x increase. NAT is also currently operating more tankers on spot price rental, increasing volume under spot price contract over last year. They currently have 23 of 27 operating on spot pricing. Historical action levels: https://imgur.com/a/X3W3kD4 One week chart showing downward channel (Im not sure this trend is completed yet) before potential breakout: https://imgur.com/a/CYCaYcv Recommendation: I think the resistance levels for DHT are more relevant than those of NAT, and are also more realistic to be beaten. Calls mid week for EOW earnings at least 2 weeks out. General market sentiment is important for this trade. MGM Current share price: 15.01 Summary of MGM's plans to reopen casinos: https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/04/30/mgm-plans-reopen-las-vegas-bellagio-new-york-new-york/3061417001/ I would expect the mayor of Las Vegas to attempt to reopen the tourism to the city along with President Trump's guidance. If they are able, they will reopen soon. They likely will not have large scale shows or concert events to draw in customers, but gambling will be open to some extent. I do not expect casinos to see a large influx of patrons, and this will end up being a net negative for them in the coming months as their expenses will increase more than revenues. They may even potentially have to re-close if Covid testing reveals an uptick in cases in the Las Vegas area. That said, their saving grace is Macau, where a significantly large portion of their income is generated. China expects tourism to Macau to increase, but I would take that with a grain of salt. Given MGM's recent meteoric rise to nearly $18 per share, I think they fall into the sentiment of the rest of the market and will suffer in the coming month. I expect the share price will visit mid-april prices of $13, or potentially lower following a general trend with SPY. Luckily, If you see these prices, I consider MGM a very long term and stable play. They have enough cash on hand to last an entire year with no revenue; a situation that is uncommon at this time. In general, event or discretionary based spending, hospitality and travel will be the last to recover, but this is a commonly assessed sentiment. Historical action levels: MGM was not surprisingly rejected by the historical support level of $17.50 this week https://imgur.com/a/aoRNvk8 5 day chart does not provide any major price movement indication. Recommendation: Sell shares, do nothing until share prices revisit mid-April levels. As always, feel free to comment and tell me why I'm wrong. EDIT - I accidentally switched which size tanker each company uses, it has been corrected - Shoutout u/kindlyblacksmith
If you’re new to Coronavirus research, start here…
Feb 19, 2020, updated periodically...Unfortunately there’s not just one link you can use to get an estimate of the real numbers of infected, or of the seriousness of this outbreak, and you will have to do some digging of your own. But here are a few points to consider and research for yourself:
The basics
Name. The names 2019-nCoV, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, and novel coronavirus all basically refer to the same thing, either the new virus or the disease it causes. (The WHO calls the virus SARS-COV-2, and the illness COVID-19.)
Family. It is a type of SARS but is much worse than SARs; experts have also called it "worse than Ebola" in terms of how fast it is spreading.
Re-infection. Getting sick with it more than once is a possibility; "recovered" patients may even be contagious or test positive for the virus after so-called "recovery." Link
Spreading without symptoms. People are able to be asymptomatic or presymptomatic, but still contagious, for weeks. Studies have shown that an infected person may be shedding virus for weeks after "recovery."
Ineffective quarantines. Quarantines are being done for 14 days in many countries, even though it has been documented that 38 days would be more effective. The word quarantine comes from the Italian quarantina giorni, a space of 40 days. We need to get smarter about how long people are quarantined.
When Did It Start? By Nov 2019, officials had briefed the US White House on a virus that was sweeping through Wuhan, China. Link
Fast-spreading. Between 2/19/20 and 5/1/20, cases grew from 1000 to over 3 million. Many countries do not have the capability to adequately test people. For instance it could become very widespread in parts of Africa without ever making the news.
Symptoms and Treatment. There is no cure; treatment focuses on the symptoms like the cough and fever. The symptom list is long and varies from patient to patient but the majority of them have cough and fever and the serious cases develop pneumonia, which is what kills them. Secondary infections are also common, and those patients get antibiotics, but, antibiotics don't do anything against a virus; they are used solely to treat additional complications. The symptom list seems to be ever-changing: a March 7 report showed that 22% of patients had diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and/or abdominal discomfort before respiratory symptoms (another report said it was about 50%). One first-person account said that a rash was her only symptom. CNN aired an interview with US nurses on the frontline who said that in some cases the only symptom prior to death was that the tissue around the eyes turned red (not the eyes, but the face area around the eyes).
No vaccine. Labs around the world are racing to develop a vaccine but that is, at best, months away; some say a vaccine may be impossible due to how the virus tricks the body into making more virus. And keep in mind there was a SARS outbreak nearly 20 years ago and we still don't have a vaccine for that.
Lives on surfaces. Many redditors have asked about whether it is safe to accept packages from China. Studies have shown that the virus can survive on surfaces for at least 9 days under certain conditions, and up to 27 days in other conditions.
"Do I have it?" Many redditors have posted questions saying they feel ill and want to know if they have it. If you think you have it, call a doctor or hospital; reddit is not the place for a diagnosis. The hospital will want you to wear a mask when you come in, and will want you to call ahead so they can isolate you from other patients.
"How do I avoid it?" Many redditors have asked what they can do to avoid catching or spreading the virus. Standard virus protocol applies: avoid close contact with people who are sick; stay home when you are sick; cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue then throw the tissue in the trash; frequently wash your hands (especially after going to the bathroom, before eating, and after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing) using soap and water as hot as you can stand it for at least 30 seconds (the scrubbing under running water is important; a 5-second fingertip wash is inadequate); carry hand sanitizer gel with you for times when you can't wash your hands; avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth especially in public; disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces using a household cleaning spray; etc. The US has recommended against all travel to China [update: against all international travel]. Some redditors started avoiding air travel, public transportation, and large crowds and gatherings at the end of January 2020.
Other reasons why we don't believe the official numbers
Information Warfare. In the earliest days of the revelations about the virus, a deliberate disinformation campaign was started, to get people to believe two major falsehoods: 1) “It’s not as bad as the flu,” and 2) “Everything is under control and will be back to normal soon.” You will see this repeated thousands of times around reddit, other social media, and in mainstream media in the US and elsewhere. Even US doctors are repeating this propaganda, almost verbatim, to any news reporter who asks. Read more about China's 10 million influence agents at Link
Naysayers. Historically unprecedented efforts have been made to downplay the virus - often by focusing on the supposedly low fatality rate, or the supposed recovery rate. It's far too early to know what "recovery" actually means. For instance, scientists from Nanjing Medical University and Suzhou Hospital have said males who "recover" may be infertile. There is also well-founded concern about permanent lung damage, and possible chronic joint/muscle pain which could be debilitating and lifelong.
Pre-determined case rate. In early Feb 2020, someone demonstrated that the rise in cases was very predictable from day to day; the data curve was "beautiful" in that it was flawless and perfect, unlike the real world. He was able to predict, a day in advance, with astonishing accuracy, how many new cases would be announced by China the following day. The implication was that the data only moved like that because it was pre-determined before it happened; in other words the real numbers were released in a slow trickle in order to manage the public's reaction.
Under-reporting. There are indications, including first-hand reports from doctors, that the "official" numbers of confirmed dead are grossly under-reported. Link
Estimates. In Jan. 2020, some people were thinking the infected number was over 150,000 (back when China was saying it was under 10,000). It's hard to get a reliable number, but there are clues pointing to a worrisome amount of cases. Researcher models have shown estimates of a multiplier for a realistic number that range from x4 to x35. In other words if China is announcing 75,000 cases today, some people are concerned that the real number (including those who are undiagnosed) is 528,000 up to an almost inconceivable 4.6 million. [Update: Less than 2 months later, the "official" number worldwide exceeds 3 million; if x35 holds true...I don't like that answer...]
Suspected vs. Confirmed. China also has a data set for "suspected cases," which may include people who have presented to the hospital (or to several hospitals, seeking care) with the symptoms but who were unable to get diagnosed because the hospitals were overwhelmed. Some observers consider "suspected" cases should be considered "confirmed" until there has been a negative diagnosis.
Crematorium Info. Investigative journalism in China has led to recordings of phone conversations with crematorium workers, who are desperately asking for help because they are going 24/7 and are still backed up in Hubei from the amount of dead to incinerate (imagine California and half of Texas not being able to keep up with the bodies). The employee states the number of bodies has been 4 to 5 times the usual, starting ever since Dec. 29.
Portable Crematoriums? Lu Media reported that 40 units officially described as "cabins for the disposal of garbage and animal carcasses" have aided Wuhan in the epidemic area; their capacity is 5 tons per day. Professor Ming Ju of National Taiwan University believes that these cabins are "mobile incinerators" used to process human corpses. (To expand on that: 5 tons is 10,000 pounds or 4,536 kilos. Using a rough average weight of 62 kg per adult, that's 73 adults per day, per machine, so 40 machines are capable of handling 2,920 adults per day. That's in addition to the numerous regular crematoriums which can process a dozen or more people simultaneously.) That is all speculation; it is also likely that a city on lockdown would have an enormous problem getting rid of household refuse and medical waste, in which case those mobile incinerators would come in handy for that, too.
Cell phone Subscriber Decreases. Jennifer Zeng reported a combined net loss of 15 million subscribers to three of the large cell phone companies in China, in Jan and Feb 2020 alone. Link
"Not as bad as the flu" nonsense. From Jan to March 2020, mainstream media (MSM) and social media were chock full of people conducting information warfare; their goal was to perpetuate the “official” myth that coronavirus is not as serious as the flu, and that everything will be back to normal soon. There are several other virus-related subs on reddit which are moderated by people who do not allow any dissenting views, and who only permit people to post things that have already been announced by a government. In March 2020, the US CDC Tweeted that the fatality rate of this virus is at least three times that of the flu.
CNY. Chinese New Year is a major travel holiday when people go home to spend time with their families; it is often the only time of year when migrant workers get to see their loved ones. Millions and millions of Chinese people were on the move when this outbreak began.
Ineffective City Quarantines. China announced each city lockdown up to a day or two in advance, which gave infected people plenty of time to try to flee. After Wuhan was locked down, it was announced that some 5 million people had left before it started. Many of the people trapped in Wuhan were just caught there during their New Year's travels.
Constant number manipulation. China has changed how they count cases, and has advised that if a person has tested positive for the virus but is asymptomatic (has no symptoms) then they should not be added to the list of confirmed cases.
Practically no testing in the US. In the US, the vast majority of citizens (99.99999+%) can't get tested. The CDC policy has changed several times but even now, unless you have symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization or have had close contact with a CDC-confirmed case, testing is not available for most Americans. [Update: As of 5/1/20, the US has tested approximately 2% of its population, and has over 1 million cases.]
"Self-quarantines." The US relies on self-quarantines. On 2/19/20, WSJ reported "Public health officials in the U.S. are striving to keep tabs on thousands of Americans who have quarantined themselves at home after returning from mainland China..."
States hiding data. Some states, notably Florida, were initially claiming that they couldn't legally disclose how many people have been tested. "According to the Tampa Bay Times, “state Surgeon General Scott Rivkees said the Florida Department of Health is not authorized to publish the number of people in the state being tested for the virus out of privacy concerns.” US health privacy laws contain an obvious and necessary exemption for cases that involve public health crises.
Hacked Accounts Spread Reassuring Deception. Redditors are posting that they have been getting bizarre texts from close friends and family members in China saying "situation is under control" and "we're all fine" etc. Others posted screenshots of messages from several business contacts in China who all repeated an official message practically verbatim: "Impact limited to Wuhan...Everything is under control...will be back to normal soon...thank you for your concern."
Body bags. Rumors are circulating that China has ordered 1 million body bags, and shifted factories to body bag production; someone also posted an online industrial buyer order in which someone was looking to purchase 45 million virus masks.
Monitoring. China announced a few days ago that they are "monitoring" close to half a million people who have had "close contact" with infected people. Monitoring efforts involve self-reporting plus tracking of movements based on cell phone geolocation, A.I., facial recognition technology, and mandatory checkpoints.
What leaked videos and social media posts have shown us has happened in China
Dropping Dead. There are a handful of videos that show people seeming to suddenly collapse, notably a police officer walking down the street, in social media posts circulating on Feb 19, 2020. Videos show people dead and dying in hospital waiting rooms. Other videos show dead bodies laying on the sidewalk; a young woman collapsed in a vegetable market, etc. These spread in China in Jan.; in Feb. we saw similar vids from Iran. On 2/20/20, Harry Chen PhD posted a man laying face-down in a Hong Kong mall, the implication being that he collapsed from the virus or virus-related complications.
Unprecedented Censorship Efforts. Videos get deleted almost as fast as they get posted. One leaked video shows uniformed internet police pounding on someone's door, demanding that they delete their social media post, and also that they immediately must post a retraction to apologize for spreading "rumors" or otherwise they will face legal consequences for harming social order.
Voices from Inside Hospitals. Voicemails and texts from Chinese nurses and medical workers urging their loved ones, "Do not go outside" and saying that they are totally overwhelmed with infected patients. Numerous nurses collapsing into hysterics, unable to cope with the requirement to work 22 hours a day, and the inability to leave the hospital; some have been threatened with having their medical license revoked if they walk away.
Dirty masks. Used surgical masks being resold: an old man on the sidewalk selling used surgical masks of various colors from an open box. Another video recorded surreptitiously shows a team of people inside a shop with a big pile of used surgical masks, which are being sorted, flattened, and folded. The video ended with a view of a big stack of boxes; the implication was that used masks were being repackaged for sale as new. The brand name was not legible but it featured a woman's face on the cover, and Chinese writing on the box.
Quarantine Evasions. City quarantines don't work. Videos show people climbing over head-height barricades and fences built across roads and bridges, family members handing their children across the fence, and arguments in the street when someone is discovered to have Hubei province license plates or to be speaking with a Wuhan accent.
Doors welded shut. People are being welded into their apartments in Wuhan. Some apartment buildings have had their entrances sealed, once multiple people inside are believed to have the disease. Videos showed a middle-aged, non-athletic woman attempting to scale the outside of the building by going from balcony to balcony, and she fell to her death. A small town road labeled as the "Road to Lihua" which shows a street full of residential buildings, and every single building is barricaded from the outside, thus trapping the uninfected inside with the infected and the dead.
Mobs. So-called "recovered" patients being attacked and beat up for returning to their village after being released from quarantine.
Sprayers. Numerous videos show fleets of trucks rolling through streets in China, spraying what we suppose to be some sort of disinfectant, as though there was a need to clean the sidewalks or even the air itself. China has used water sprayers for at least five years to combat pollution, but speculation is that these trucks contain some sort of chemical rather than water.
Birds. A highway shot shows hundreds of crows perched on a concrete barrier; the subtitles claim that thousands of crows have been attracted to Wuhan by the stench of death.
Checkpoints. Villages and small towns enforcing quarantines with weapons, punches, slaps, etc. A car stops at a checkpoint, hesitates, then seems to intentionally plow into a medical tent.
Arrests. Patrols of white hazmat suit workers looking for people who went outside without a mask; they get arrested and carried away.
Packed hospitals. Hospital hallways jam-packed with people standing around waiting to get tested; shoulder-to-shoulder crowding conditions, which surely served to spread the virus faster.
Pets Killed. Village patrols beating dogs to death with a stick supposedly in order to "prevent the spread of the virus," and household pets thrown down from tall apartment buildings for the same reason.
Bodies. Multiple body bags in hospital ambulances, on the floors of hospitals, and in the hallway. (Similar videos surfaced from Iran and Brazil in March 2020.)
Transportation issues. That there were enough dead at a given time that no one could respond promptly to carry away the bodies.
Paid by the body. A citizen journalist secretly records an impromptu job interview at a local crematorium, where he is told he will not be paid unless he brings in bodies to cremate. They offer 500 RMB for one body, and 200 RMB for each additional body, up to 1100 RMB a load if he can bring in 4 bodies at a time.
Failures at life-saving efforts. A man's voicemail (identified by name as a doctor, if the accompanying image is to be believed) stating that for patients who are intubated (receiving oxygen via a tube shoved down their throats), extubation (removing the tube) is rarely successful - the patients die when taken off oxygen.
Panic buying. Fights over groceries, and rice flying off the cart before the grocery store can even put it on the shelves.
Refugees. Social media video posted Feb 19, 2020 claims to show hundreds of people with suitcases and baggage fleeing over the Chinese border from Guangxi province into Vietnam. Like most other videos claiming to be about this situation, there are many responses claiming this one is fake.
Fights. A child stabbing an elderly person and another child, during a fight over a small bottle of antiseptic.
Intentional Spreading. There are videos showing various suspects who are going around intentionally spitting on things, in an apparent effort to spread the virus. Tissue boxes are provided on elevators so that a person can use the tissue to press the button, and keep their fingers clean. Videos show a family riding the elevator, and a male takes a tissue and spits on it repeatedly, then smears all of the buttons with his spit. Another video shows an older woman alone in a different elevator; she repeatedly hacks and spits intentionally all over the buttons and the inner doors of the elevator, and then after a younger woman gets on and presses an elevator button, the older woman cackles to herself. Another video shows a young woman going down the street spitting on the door handles of cars. Another video shows a young woman sneaking around an apartment complex at night, spitting on doorknobs. Many Western viewers are unable to make sense of these videos, or conceive of a thought process that would make a person want to do this.
Attacks on medical workers. Patients in hospitals pulling down their virus masks and intentionally spitting into the faces of medical workers and receptionists - multiple incidents in multiple locations.
Arson? I have yet to actually see one of the alleged "arson" videos because they get deleted (for "inappropriate content") shortly after they are shared, but there are rumors of one or more videos showing buildings being intentionally set on fire in China, with people still alive inside the buildings. People are working hard to call these fakes, saying it emerged in early January and there is no proof that it is linked to the virus; however, since the videos immediately get flagged and deleted, discussion and debunking it for yourself is nearly impossible. On that note, if you see a video and believe it will be deleted, there are ways you can archive it (to a different website) so that others can see it later.
Failed donation efforts. Food trucks sent to Wuhan are not allowed past the city's barricades, and the food goes to waste.
Resistance. In Xiaogan, Hubei, the villagers did not want to be sealed up inside their homes, and they fought back. The police fired shots.
What else is happening in China
Pop-up Hospitals. In response to the outbreak, a pop-up hospital was built in China in about 10 days. It leaks.
Non-Hospitals. China has also opened “quarantine shelters” which do not provide medical care; observers are calling these deathatoriums, where people are supposed to just go and wait to die. However, if someone lives with a big family and has nowhere else to go, this may be a humane way to help the person have shelter without risking infecting their loved ones. Once a person goes in, they are not allowed to leave.
H2H and A2H. Human-to-animal-to-human transmission appears possible: It was reported by a UK tabloid on Feb 21, 2020 that hundreds of pets have dropped dead in China; although that source is questionable, the 2002 SARs outbreak led to research that household pets such as cats and ferrets could be infected by SARS-CoV which they caught from a human, and then could spread the disease to other humans (back in 2002).
Historic Firsts. Wartime policies are in place. China has locked down three entire provinces (Hubei, Liaoning, Jiangxi), all four centrally-administered municipalities (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing) and more than 80 other major cities. Some estimate that nearly 800 million Chinese (9.8% of the population of the entire planet) are under some type of quarantine, lockdown, and/or movement restrictions. A bit of logic often repeated on reddit is "You don't do that for the flu."
Cages. People are being dragged kicking and screaming off the street into truck cages, because a spot-check of their forehead temperature revealed they had a fever.
Press Censorship. Reporters are going silent and China revoked the press credentials of 3 WSJ reporters.
Robots. In Wuhan robots (think "gonk droid" not "C3PO") and drones are being used to enforce the quarantine, ordering people not to leave their homes, even for food.
Information Control. Chinese whistleblowers are reportedly disappearing or suddenly being diagnosed as infected, hours after posting revealing information.
Claims of People Being Burned Alive. Taiwan News - and no other sources as far as I can find - is reporting alleged first-hand accounts of people who claim they saw people being burned alive in Wuhan, the alive bound up with corpses and dragged off together.
Doctors Sickened. Chinese medical professionals (around 1800) are getting infected despite safety procedures, and some are dying from the infection (notably the director of a hospital in Wuhan). Usually doctors and nurses aren’t too worried about getting ill from their patients due to their safety measures, which indicates that covid-19 is much more infectious than the usual flu strains.
Irony. A high-level government health official emphatically stressed to reporters that the virus is preventable and controllable, a few days before he himself was diagnosed with the virus.
24/7 Lockdowns. People in Wuhan no longer being let out of their homes once every 7 days, and are on 24/7 lockdown.
Propaganda Videos. In the early days there were quite a few propaganda videos showing happy, smiling shoppers in grocery stores that were fully stocked. There were very light crowds - lighter than usual even - and no shortages of food in these videos, despite the leaked videos showing empty vegetable bins, huge meat bins with only one pack of meat left, and violent fights between shoppers trying to get their hands on a sack of rice.
Positivity Efforts. There have also been propaganda vids showing infected patients dancing and doing exercise; this is all part of the order from on high to keep the message "positive" and ensure that nothing but pure "positivity" covers all virus news.
"Moving Deeds" Efforts. Propaganda efforts have been directed toward promoting the effects of control measures and the “moving deeds” of volunteers, community workers, and the police. They have also posted some 400,000 comments online to counter negative public opinions.
Barring Investigators. China wouldn't let any WHO Americans into the country until recently, but they are still being prevented from going to Hubei and Beijing.
Movement Restrictions. Drones carry QR codes at the entrances to cities; drivers must use their cell phone to scan the QR code, and then the system will analyze the phone's recent movements, then decide whether to allow the person into the city.
Medical situation propaganda. While leaked videos show overwhelmed, crying medical staff in packed hospitals, there are also some propaganda videos showing empty hospital corridors and calm, smiling, laughing, relaxed doctors; one claim being circulated is that some of those were filmed with actors hired to portray doctors.
New medical crime laws. On Feb 8, 2020 China’s National Health Commission announced seven types of "medical-related" crimes, stating that prosecution will be swift and they will not rule out the death penalty for these crimes, which, in plain English, are basically: 1) Don't injure medical workers, 2) Let medical workers go wherever they say they need to go, 3) Don't pull down your mask and spit in the face of medical workers, 4) Cooperate with mandatory health checks and quarantines and don't disrupt anyone trying to burn bodies, 5) Don't stay in a hospital if you've been told to leave, and funerals are banned, 6) Don't carry weapons into a hospital, and 7) Anything else they decide is illegal is also illegal.
Swift cremations. Funerals in Hubei are banned; the deceased are immediately cremated and the family is notified afterwards. If the deceased did not have a coronavirus diagnosis before death, the body will never be tested and the case will never be added to the official numbers.
The Unknowns
Longterm Health Implications. The US government has just announced that "recovered" COVID-19 survivors are permanently disqualified from military service. This speaks volumes about what the government knows about what this virus is and what it does. Link
Death Rate. The fatality rate is still an unknown; many people blindly repeat “2%” although we have not had enough cases outside of China, for long enough, to know the real number. Professor Neil Ferguson of the Imperial College of London has published a paper estimating Hubei province will see an 18% fatality rate. That’s one of five people out of 11 million; which means this professor is projecting roughly 2 million deaths in Hubei province alone. The same professor says that it is not absurd to anticipate we’ll have 400,000 infected in the UK. Early numbers from Italy are over 30% but of course it's still way early to know.
False Negatives. We don't know how many people have it and were tested negative, because there have been experiments where current test kits have failed to detect the virus until the 5th or 6th time tested.
Airborne? Reports from inside China have repeatedly referred to the virus as "airborne." This gets shouted down on social media as soon as it is repeated, with anonymous "experts" trying to convince you and everyone else reading that you simply don't know what "airborne" means, and trying to switch the focus to droplet contamination by sneezes and coughs. People in China, and certain parts of South Korea, Vietnam, and Italy have been warned specifically not to go outside.
Source of virus. The "official" source, which somehow was known and announced since the very early days, was a so-called "wet market" or "seafood market." In reality these markets are infamous for butchering and selling the meat of snakes, bats, rats, cats, dogs, badgers, civets, raccoon dogs, and other exotic mammals for human consumption. CNN reports from years ago documented dogs and cats in cages, waiting for butchering. The propaganda description is that the markets just sell seafood and birds. Sanitary practices in such markets consist of rinsing off surfaces with plain water periodically, and using the same knife to cut multiple species of animals, and the same knife to cut meat and then intestines and then meat again. The possibilities for illness and infection from such meat sources is obvious, and the official story is that this virus somehow jumped from bats (or some say from pangolins) to humans.
Virus Lab. The original source of the virus has been the subject of great debate. It has been reported as starting in Wuhan, which happens to have Asia's only Level 4 Biosafety Laboratory. Some Chinese researchers were indicted for taking virus samples from Canada to China, and, the head of a Canadian virus lab was also indicted for being on the payroll of China and accepting $50,000 a month payment from them. Draw your own conclusions.
HIV Proteins. Some research indicates that the virus shares four proteins with HIV, and bears certain genetic markers only found on genetically modified organisms. Those scientists were quickly silenced with criticism; most seem to believe the criticism. Regardless, numerous articles have claimed it somehow acts like HIV.
What's happening outside of China
Lockdowns. The entire countries of Italy, Spain, and India's entire 1.3 billion people are locked down. The US and UK are on some sort of half-ass "voluntary" thing, told to "stay home if you can" while many people ignore it.
Cruise Ship. The Diamond Princess cruise ship (quarantined near Japan) which some observers on reddit said would be a good test case for a real world model outside of China, has shown an alarming increase in the numbers of infected.
Suppression of Info. Google is believed to be suppressing virus news. Try the search engine that doesn't track you, https://duckduckgo.com
Macau. Macau closed its casinos. This would be like Las Vegas deciding to hang up a "Sorry, we're closed" sign for a few weeks.
Ukraine. Ukraine - civil unrest, riots, road blockades to protest quarantining and transportation of patients into the area.
South Korea. South Korea reported a surge of new cases on Feb 19, 2020, linked to an infected person attending a church service; 31 new cases were diagnosed. The growth in South Korea, in a matter of days, has been mind-blowing (In 13 days, the case count in South Korea has grown from 82 to over 5,300 cases). South Korea may have been a good predictor for what growth in the US will look like, except so far, South Korea is testing 2,000 out of every million of its citizens, while the US is only testing 1 out of a million.
Self-isolation. South Korea, Vietnam, and Iran are asking millions of people to stay at home, to contain the spread. In one city in South Korea the mayor has asked people to wear their viral masks even indoors at home.
Iran. While Iran is officially reporting 3 deaths as of Feb 21, 2020, a social media post says it's 20; that the virus can live on surfaces for 2 weeks, can transfer from animals, can reinfect after initial infection, and testing is 30%-50% accurate, with many false negatives and asymptomatic transmission, plus mutations of the virus. Other "leak" sources say there are 300 positive diagnoses in Iran. Just like we saw happen in China, a government official who urged the public not to overact about coronavirus has now tested positive for the illness himself. Within a couple of weeks of Iran's first case, multiple senior politicians had died (Mar 3, 2020). On Mar 12, satellite imagery revealed mass burial pits in Iran.
Dirty masks. Leaked video shows several women in head coverings who are sitting on the floor sorting through what appears to be thousands of used surgical masks - the implication being that these will be resold; the narration does not sound Chinese; the videographer holds up an example mask very close to the phone, to show that it is definitely used and soiled.
Travel to/from China. The US had up to 200,000 citizens in China at the time of the outbreak. As of mid-March, the US unbelievably still has daily flights from China. Canada still has unrestricted air transportation with China. Meanwhile, other countries have closed their borders to Chinese citizens and to anyone who has been to China recently.
Evacuations. The US has arranged multiple evacuation flights to bring Americans home from China. Some on reddit are concerned that this will only spread the infection faster, and would have preferred that anyone in China be left there. The US has spread these evacuees around at least three states, and enforces a “voluntary” quarantine of 14 days.
Quarantine Stations. For years the US CDC (Centers for Disease Control) has had 19 quarantine stations on military bases ready for just such an outbreak. American evacuees are currently being held at some of those.
Emergency Declarations. The US city of San Diego, California declared a "public health emergency" on Feb 14, 2020. As of March 7 these states have also declared a state of emergency: NY, FL, KY, PN, MD, UT, IN, CA, & WA. On Mar 14, Pres. Trump declared a national emergency and public schools in 12 states announced closures ranging from a few days up to 30 days.
Weak control measures in the US. In the US, hundreds of people are being "monitored" (sent home and told to call if they get a fever or cough) but are not being tested. These people may be contagious. Link
National Guard Mobilization in Tallahassee, Florida, US? A social media post claims to show a small fleet of what appears to be military vehicles, police officers, and ordinary trucks hauling large white trailers; the captions claim the vehicles are Chemical, Biological, and Radiological response units. Two large earth-moving/digging vehicles are in the fleet.
Spitting. US social media indicates Seattle patients are spitting on the clinic walls and floor.
People dropping dead. Social media posts from Iran (Feb 25, 2020) are showing us the same things we saw on social media in Hong Kong and on the leaked videos from China: various, random people just suddenly collapsed / dropped dead in the street. One theory being circulated is that the virus may cause heart failure, particularly during the patient's re-infection (or second time with the virus).
Supply Chain and Economic Impacts
Mask shortages. Chinese buyers are scouring the world to locate companies that can sell them viral masks in bulk. Many redditors have posted that they ordered masks online, but then got notified that their order was canceled or on back-order. In the US, as of mid-February most cities still have masks on the shelves at local stores; though many stores have imposed quantity restrictions such as 10 per customer. In states where the CDC has announced confirmed cases, people are having trouble finding masks anywhere.
Panic buying. Singapore has imposed limits on how much groceries and supplies a person can buy. Hong Kong has had panic-buying of household goods and groceries, with many rumors that ordinary things (such as toilet paper, which Hong Kong gets from mainland China) could go out of stock and stay out of stock for an unknown period of time. In the US we get our toilet paper from US companies; there is no reason to hoard toilet paper in the US! As of Feb 29 and Mar 1, panic buying appears to be happening in Hawaii, Oregon, California, and multiple locations in the US. As of Mar 13, panic buying has spread to many areas of the US. At this point if you failed to prepare, you should consider looking carefully at your own pantry and fridge, rather than going out and risking being in a panic buying crowd.
Global Crash. Economic damage in China and around the world is difficult to contemplate. Billions have already been lost. China produces about 17% of global GDP.
Cars and car parts. Some car makers have shut down plants temporarily and some may have to find alternative sources for components (such as plastics and wires etc.) before they can resume operations, unless this virus magically disappears by the end of February.
International Shipping. Some cargo ships are leaving Asia at 5% capacity (95% empty) and will not be able to continue to operate like that.
"Made in China." Experts are projecting shortages and disruptions in the global supply chain in general, affecting countless products either "made in China" or made with ingredients or parts sourced in China, including but certainly not limited to computers, electronics, auto parts, chemicals, medical equipment, machinery, telecom hardware, apparel and footwear, home goods, batteries, smartphones, and notably, pharmaceuticals (over-the-counter and prescription drugs), just to name a few examples. Even if a product is advertised as being made in your country, there's a good chance it contains Chinese components or ingredients or is at the very least being sold in a plastic container that was made in China. Industries are looking at options for finding other countries to become suppliers, so we can diversify the supply chain and avoid keeping all our eggs in one basket, though such measures could prove to be too little, much too late at this point.
There’s much more that can be posted here, but that's enough topics to get you started on your own research. I really doubt this is going to be disappearing in a month or two. If any readers have a source or video link etc., or additional points they you'd like me to add, just reply to this message, or send me a private message if you prefer. Thanks for reading!
All of Bolsonaro's Men - An Explanation on how Brazil's Current Politics and why a Cabinet Meeting is now on Youtube (Part 3)
This is the final part explaining Bolsonaro's April 22nd cabinet meeting. At the end there are some final remarks, and in the comments my sources. Braga Netto introduces Abraham Weintraub, Minister of Education Note: Weintraub currently is being sued for a racist tweet that implied China created Covid Weintraub: [...] I don't want to be a slave in this country. And end with this crap that is Brasília. This is a cancer of corruption, of privilege. [...] The people here lose perception, empathy, public relations. [...] We are losing the fight for liberty. This is what the people is calling for. They are not calling for more State, for more projects, to have more ... the people are calling for liberty, full stop. Note: This right now is one of the most controversial moments of the meeting, with the Supreme Court taking legal action on what he says right now Weintraub: In my opinion, I'd arrest all those lazy bums. Starting with the Supreme Court. [...] I notice there's many people with a personal agenda. [...] I have a bunch of lawsuits in the ethics committee of the presidency. I'm the only one here that took a lawsuit. [...] I'm really here with an open chest, as you know it, I get shot ... hate ... hate the Communist Party [Redacted] They are trying to turn us into a colony. [...] We need to end this thing of people and privileges. [...] Bolsonaro: Let me complement this. What Weintraub is saying - I'm 65 - we get close to people we shouldn't. I have to police myself in regards to that. It's people here in Brasília, of the three powers, that don't know what's the people. I talk to a few, don't know what's rice and beans, don't know what's a supermarket. Forgot. Think that money falls from the sky. "I have my guaranteed privileges, my 100k per month" on average, 100k per month they earn, right? Legally. And think this will never end. Like some think the liberty "What's the deal with that guy, is he crazy?" I see the oldest one here, General Heleno here. He knows what is six, what was sixty four. Many of the ones here don't know. The people that tried to get into power in sixty four, if they had arrived, we were all fucked here. Cutting ... super happy if we were cutting sugarcane earning twenty USD per month. Can't forget that Note: reference to how it is claimed that the military did the coup in 64 to prevent a socialist revolution Bolsonaro: We can't forget who this people is. I'll invite the ministers to go on Sunday visit Ceilândia and Taguatinga. (Two local neighbourhoods). It's an invitation, not a ... not a mission no. Invitation. To see how the guy in the corner is doing. So that some piece of shit comes up and says, right? Same pieces of shit as always "Ah but the guy broke isolation. You're giving a terrible example" Ok ... Bad example is my dick, fuck! Worst is to starve! You're in shit, fuck! Feel how the people smell, like I said, there. It's an experience for every politician to feel! Go there and see how it is. Or there's people that is, like it was, right, huh? A general in the rear letting the troops get fucked in front. No! The General is, is in the front, the colonel is in the front, the captain is in the front. Our heroes of WW2 had ahead of them a battlefield. If it was needed, I'm sure, our armed forces will do their job, but, right? We have to give an example and show what Brazil isn't - I'm less rude than Weintraub, improved a lot, right? In the language he used - but that's not what people say around. Meeting around midnight, here and there. Informations systems, mine works. Bolsonaro: My particular one works. The ofi ... which have officially, misinform. And back to the theme, I prefer not to have information than to be misinformed by the system of informations that I have. So, people, many will be able to leave Brazil, but I don't want to leave and see my sister form Eldorado, another from Cajati, my poor brother Army captain from ... from ... from ... from Miracatu getting fucked, fuck! It's being pursued all day long! And then the shit Folha de São Paulo, says my brother was kicked from a slaughterhouse, buying meat without a mask. Proved in writing, he was in São Paulo that day. The owner of ... of restaurant of ... of ... of ... of the slaughterhouse said he wasn't there. And that's it. I know it's his problem, right? But the bullshit is the whole time to hit me, messing with my family. I already tried to change the staff of our security in Rio, officially, and wasn't able to! And this ended. I'm not going to wait to fuck my entire family, of bullshit, or friends of mine, because I couldn't switch someone from our frontline security in our structure. It'll switch! If I can't switch, I'll switch his boss! Can't switch his boss? Switch the minister! Full stop! We're not joking here (note): the minister and one of the bosses mentioned here are Ramagem and Moro Bolsonaro: And then some kid shows up, with - all due respect - the one from BNDES, ok? I met him when he wore shorts, and ... Fuck, he came from the United States over here, could very well be there. Came here to try to change Brazil invited by Paulo Guedes, who is a friend of his parents. Coincidence, isn't it Paulo Guedes? Bolsonaro: I don't think so. .. I don't remember your parents, I remember you, fuck! All right? But it's someone I'm investing here. And all of those have to think about this. What these sons of bitches want, huh Weintraub, is our freedom. Look, how it is, how easy it is to impose a dictatorship in Brazil. How easy it is. Everybody is home. This is why I want, the Justice and Defense Ministries, let the people be armed! It's the guarantee that some son of a bitch won't show up to impose a dictatorship here! How easy it is to impose a dictatorship! Ridiculously easy! Some bullshit mayor makes some bullshit decree, handcuffs, keeps everybody home. If they were armed, they would go to the street. If I was dictator, right? I'd want to disarm the population, like they did in the past when they wanted, before imposed their respective dictatorship. Then, what's our demonstration, I ask Fernando (Minister of Defense) and Moro that please, sign in the Executive Order today and I want to give a bitch of a note to these pieces of shit! Because why am I arming the people? Because I don't want a dictatorship! There's no way to hold back! Right? No way to hold back. Yeah, who won't accept my flags Damares: "family, God, Brazil, guns, freedom of speech, free market". Who won't accept this is in the wrong government. Wait until twenty two, right? Your Álvaro Dias. Wait for Alckmin. Wait for Haddad. Or maybe Lula, right? Go be happy with them, fuck? In my government it's wrong! It's make the armament question obvious here. I want everybody armed! The armed people will never be enslaved. And that each one does, does your job. Expose yourself. Here I already said: you'll lose the ministry if you get spoken positively by Folha or by Globo! By Antagonista! Right? So there are some blogs there that only have good news from the ministers. No idea how! The president ... takes a beating, but the minister is congratulated. And then we see around. "Ah, the government is, the ... the ministry is doing well, although the president." Go fuck yourself, fuck! I picked the team, fuck! We switched five. Hope I won't have to switch anybody else! I hope! But we have to, in Weintraub's line, in a more gentle way, right? It's ... caring about this. What the guys want is our hemorrhoid! It's out liberty! This is a truth. What these guys did with the virus, this piece of shit governor of São Paulo (João Dória), this shit from Rio de Janeiro (Wilson Witzel), amongst others is exactly that. Made use of the virus, there's a piece of shit mayor in Manaus now, opening mass graves. A piece of shit. Who doesn't know his history, try to learn, which I met inside the House, with him next to me! Right? And we know the ... his ideology and what he preaches. And what he always was. It's what ... he's making use now, of a climate like this, to bring terror to Brazil. Right? So people, please, care about was important with everybody's life, what is your liberty. An arrested man is worth shit. (note: the mayor of Manaus, Artur Virgílio Neto is the son of Artur Virgílio, a Congressman who was exiled and stripped of his position after the military shutdown the Congress under accusations of being communist) Braga Netto introduces Paulo Guedes Guedes begins by presenting a more moderate stance. Saying that although they are breaking of from the establishment, they need to work together to pass the reforms. He then mentions a conversation that he had with the G20 Ministers of Economy and the BRICS. Also mentions the pension reform and how it passed in contrast to France. "Now, the same thing, I've been saying: we are deepening the reforms, we are continuing, we are following". Followed up by saying how he doesn't believe in dogmas, how Brazil was heading in a strong direction, but suddenly crashed. Brazil was one of the first countries to prepare to alleviate the crisis financially, and in his opinion, it's only worse than the United States because Powell and the Fed put out money to help keep markets afloat. Also of note is that part of the economic recovery plan involves unconventional methods, like allowing taxes to be paid later while moving forward government benefit payouts, as they were limited by the constitution. It's been planned to cost around three hundred and something billion, last deficit under Temer was around one hundred sixty. These plans reach seventy million Brazilians. "We made a banking committee, we are there with Montezano now doing exactly the restructuring. There won't be easy work for airlines, none of this. We are putting in money, and it's going to work using the best financial technology available. We are putting in money, and it's going to work and we are going to turn a profit. We are going to turn a profit using public resources to save large companies. Now, we are going to lose money saving small companies. Guedes insists the necessity to continue with the reforms mid pandemic, using the bailouts to reform the economy. "A Marshall Plan per year". Insists on lowering interest rates, and blocking government raises for two years. In his own words, you can't impeach if you're going by the book. "And the president is in the future, because the president said the following: ok, there's the first wave, which is health, but there's the second one that's the economy, and one follows the other. We are still trying to leave the first ... and the second is trying to arrive. I still think we are preserving the vitals of the Brazilian economy". He mentions how the economy will likely be held by the expected large soy production and new logistic projects. A mention of China is also present, as for every USD exported to the US, Brazil exports three to China. Mourão and Guedes talk about this, but it is redacted. In Guedes' words, "We are going to sell our soy to them This we can sell as much as we want. They have to eat, they have to eat. India also needs to eat, they'll need water. They'll say it's the best water trade. Strangely, it's also suggested to have a mobilization of the Young Apprentices Program working with the military, as they could be paid with government spending. He criticizes Damares for being against casinos, mentioning Macau. In his own words "the president speaks about liberty. Let everybody get fucked the way they wan't. Especially if he's overage, vaccinated, and a billionaire. Let him get fucked, fuck!" Also mentioned is a meeting with the US Ambassador, who says there is a few hundred billion dollars earmarked for investments in Brazil, but dependent on a good business environment. "Simplified taxation, juridical safety". He also recommends signing the General Purchase Agreement, and joining into the OECD to allow for more government transparency, allowing for improved trade. Bolsonaro then says he has Trump's support. Guedes disagrees "we can't lose the opportunity of having the president being this friendly with Trump". Tereza Cristina (Agriculture) speaks briefly about how countries are shifting to have government stocks of food post COVID. Currently Brazil is not self sufficient in wheat production, most of it is imported from neighbouring Argentina. Of course, funding is an issue, but there is two million acres set aside in the Matopiba region ready to invest in. 9% interest rates are an issue according to her. Bolsonaro asks if the Banco do Brasil (another one of Brazilian Government Banks) can help Guedes intervenes "Banco do Brasil is neither an armadillo or a snake. It's neither private or public. If you pressure Rubem (head of the bank), poor him. He's super liberal, but if you pressure him and he says "lower the rates", he goes "I can't or else the team, the private, my minoritaires, pressure me". Then if you say "put interest rates high", he goes "I can't or else the government pressures me". Banco do Brasil is a ready case to privatize. It's a ready case and we aren't doing this step. Have you sir noticed that the BNDE and the ... the ... the Caixa which are our, public, we do what we want. Banco de Brasil we can't do anything and we have a liberal there. So we need to sell this shit fast. Bolsonaro makes a quip about Rubem not being invited to the next meeting. Rubem explains how even in the changing situation Banco do Brasil has expanded loans, and the bank doesn't have liquidity issues. At the same time, the bank handles the payments for public companies and the military, which are more stable than private companies. Guedes makes a joke about him to "confess his dream". In Rubem's own words "In regard to privatizing, it's clear that with BNDES taking care of development and Caixa with the social needs, Banco do Brasil would be ready for a privatization program, right?" It is then highlighted that Banco do Brasil has some clear advantages, which would have to be sorted out by the public status. Judicial deposits and government payments would usually be handled by either Banco do Brasil or Caixa, now it's a public competition. The bank is no longer competitive in these sectors. "Then you only keep the bad sides of being a government company. We don't have the same ease in hiring, we don't have the same ease in firing bad employees and ... and ... and ... so forth". He follows with a few closing statements, about how he has to present all documents to the government comptrollers, and Covid perspectives. Braga Netto closes off the meeting. A few takeaways While the meeting was to debate the Pró-Brasil recovery plan, it ended up being more focused on Bolsonaro's gripes with his ministers. Bolsonaro has strengthened himself in this, as it shows he's still going strong in his position. This is both in the campaign promises and the way he has been underplaying Covid. What he says in the video is suspect, but is nothing that can be used as clearcut evidence in an impeachment trial. The Supreme Court has also subpoenaed his phone, but still has not reported on anything. Moro is likely the biggest loser in this. While there is evidence Bolsonaro changed command of the Federal Police for political reasons, there is still a degree of reasonable doubt. This meeting was not the silver bullet he expected. Within the Brazilian right wing, he's now seen as a traitor to a degree. Populism is a hell of a drug. Salles is one of the losers. Supporting the using the Covid news cycle to roll back environmental regulations is not a good look, especially when you're the first one to talk. There is now a movement to impeach him. Damares is another loser with this. Threatening to arrest governors due to human right violations was a bad move. Luckily, her ministry has little to no legal strength, and thus, is mostly an empty threat. Guedes on the other hand, has returned confidence to investors. While Brazil may have no clear plan to deal with Covid medically, it has a plan to deal with it economically. At the same time, there's the favorite word of a Brazilian investors - privatizing. The BOVESPA index has shot up from around 82000 points on Friday to 85400 by Tuesday's close. Weintraub now has a bad look. From having to deal with a racism case, he know is having to explain his threats against the Supreme Court. Outside of Bolsonaro's circle there is now pressure for him to resign or be sacked. Another loser, out from left field has been Bolsonaro's head of security, General Heleno. After reading the news of Bolsonaro's phone subpoena, he has stated there will be "severe implications for Brazil's democratic institutions" if Bolsonaro's phone is analyzed. Many have considered this to be an overt coup threat. He is now facing possible impeachment. Teich, which resigned after the meeting has gone through relatively unscathed. With a simple, stump speech on how Brazil can only leave the distancing after it has the virus under control and how testing must be expanded. Of note is mentioning how a plan to ease restrictions is being created. Given how there has been an expanded focus on creating medical capacity instead of waiting for the virus, it is likely that restrictions would be modified to a looser system, closer to that of Sweden.
Macau may be open for business, but casino revenue still nonexistent . By Erik Gibbs. 1 September 2020. Tags: Macau, revenue. Macau, once a popular destination for international gamblers looking Casinos in Macau, the world's biggest gambling hub, reopen on Thursday after being closed for two weeks because of the coronavirus epidemic, but all punters and croupiers will have to wear a mask Macau, the world’s gambling capital, will permit casinos to reopen Thursday following a 15-day suspension to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Macau’s government has reported 41 cases of coronavirus but no deaths. VEGAS CLOSED. In the United States, Nevada forced all casinos to close in mid-March, prompting mass layoffs. Casino-Macau.de ist eine Seite Rund um das Thema Unterhaltung in Macau. Wir informieren euch über die besten Casinos in dieser faszinierenden Glücksspielmetropole, unsere Insider Tipps zu Attraktionen und Shows in Macau sowie praktische Touristen-Informationen werden euren Besuch in Macau einmalig gestalten. Casinos in Macau, the world’s biggest gambling hub, recently reopened. However the experience is certainly not business as usual. Some 33 of Macau's 39 casinos have re-opened following the coronavirus shutdown but no one expects it to be business as usual for several months at least. Macau casinos were back in action on Thursday, though gaming floors were eerily quiet and largely empty, with the few gamblers on hand sitting far apart under strict new measures to guard against the spread of the coronavirus.After a 15-day mandatory shutdown, 29 establishments opened their doors again at the stroke of midnight on Wednesday, with a raft of regulations covering those who wished
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