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Angélica Gorodischer - Three Stories [Translated by Lorraine Elena Roses and Marian Womack]
The Resurrection of the Flesh [Tr by Roses]
These first two tales published in Secret Weavers: Stories of the Fantastic by Women Writers of Argentina and Chile, edited by Marjorie Agosin (White Pine Press, 1992):
She was thirty-two, her name was Aurelia, and she had been married eleven years. One Saturday afternoon, she looked through the kitchen window at the garden and saw the four horsemen of the Apocalypse. Men of the world, those four horsemen of the Apocalypse. And good-looking. The first from the left was riding a sorrel horse with a dark mane. He was wearing white breeches, black boots, a crimson jacket, and a yellow fez with black pompoms. The second one had a sleeveless tunic overlaid with gold and violet and was barefoot. He was riding on the back of a plump dolphin. The third one had a respectable, black beard, trimmed at right angles. He had donned a gray Prince of Wales suit, white shirt, blue tie and carried a black leather portfolio. He was seated on a folding chair belted to the back of white-haired dromedary. The fourth one made Aurelia smile and realize that they were smiling at her. He was riding a black and gold Harley-Davidson 1200 and was wearing a white helmet and dark goggles and had long, straight, blond hair flying in the wind behind him. The four were riding in the garden without moving from the spot. They rode and smiled at her and she watched them through the kitchen window. In that manner, she finished washing the two teacups, took off her apron, arranged her hair and went to the living room. "I saw the four horsemen of the Apocalypse in the garden," she told her husband. "I'll bet," he said without raising his eyes from his paper. "What are you reading?" Aurelia asked. "Hmmm?" "I said they were given a crown and a sword and a balance and power." "Oh, right," said her husband. And after that a week went by as all weeks do--very slowly at first and very quickly toward the end--and on Sunday morning, while she made the coffee, she again saw the four horsemen of the Apocalypse in the garden, but when she went back to the bedroom she didn't say anything to her husband. The third time she saw them, one Wednesday, alone, in the afternoon, she stood looking at them for a half hour and finally, since she had always wanted to fly in a yellow and red dirigible; and since she had dreamed about being an opera singer, an emperor's lover, a co-pilot to Icarus; since she would have liked to scale black cliffs, laugh at cannibals, traverse the jungles on elephants with purple trappings, seize with her hands the diamonds that lay hidden in mines, preside in the nude over a parade of nocturnal monsters, live under water, domesticate spiders, torture the powerful of the earth, rob trains in the tunnels of the Alps, set palaces on fire, lie in the dark with beggars, climb on the bridges of all the ships in the world; finally--since it was sadly sterile to be a rational and healthy adult--finally, that Wednesday afternoon alone, she put on the long dress she had worn at the last New Year's party given by the company where her husband was assistant sales manager and went out to the garden. The four horsemen of the Apocalypse called her, the blond one on the Harley-Davidson gave her his hand and helped her up onto the seat behind him, and there they went, all five, raging into the storm and singing. Two days later her husband gave in to family pressure and reported the disappearance of his wife. "Moral: madness is a flower aflame," said the narrator. Or in other words, it's impossible to inflame the dead, cold, viscous, useless, and sinful ashes of common sense.
The Perfect Married Woman
If you meet her on the street, cross quickly to the other side and quicken your pace. She’s a dangerous lady. She’s about forty or forty-five, has one married daughter and a son working in San Nicolas; her husband’s a sheet-metal worker. She rises very early, sweeps the sidewalk, sees her husband off, cleans, does the wash, shops, cooks. After lunch she watches television, sews or knits, irons twice a week, and at night goes to bed late. On Saturdays she does a general cleaning and washes windows and waxes the floors. On Sunday mornings she washes the clothes her son brings home—his name is Nestor Eduardo—she kneads dough for noodles or ravioli, and in the afternoon either her sister-inlaw comes to visit or she goes to her daughter’s house. It’s been a long time since she’s been to the movies, but she reads TV Guide and the police report in the newspaper. Her eyes are dark and her hands are rough and her hair is starting to go gray. She catches cold frequently and keeps a photo album in a dresser drawer along with a black crepe dress with lace collar and cuffs. Her mother never hit her. But when she was six, she got a spanking for coloring on a door, and she had to wash it off with a wet rag. While she was doing it, she thought about doors, all doors, and decided that they were very dumb because they always led to the same places. And the one she was cleaning was definitely the dumbest of all, the one that led to her parents’ bedroom. She opened the door and then it didn’t go to her parents’ bedroom but to the Gobi desert. She wasn’t surprised that she knew it was the Gobi desert even though they hadn’t even taught her in school where Mongolia was and neither she nor her mother nor her grandmother had ever heard of Nan Shan or Khangai Nuru. She stepped through the door, bent over to scratch the yellowish grit and saw that there was no one, nothing, and the hot wind tousled her hair, so she went back through the open door, closed it and kept on cleaning. And when she finished, her mother grumbled a little more and told her to wash the rag and take the broom to sweep up that sand and clean her shoes. That day she modified her hasty judgment about doors, though not completely, at least not until she understood what was going on. What had been going on all her life and up until today was that from time to time doors behaved satisfactorily, though in general they were still acting dumb and leading to dining rooms, kitchens, laundry rooms, bedrooms and offices even in the best of circumstances. But two months after the desert, for example, the door that every day led to the bath opened onto the workshop of a bearded man dressed in a long uniform, pointed shoes, and a cap that tilted on one side of his head. The old man’s back was turned as he took something out of a highboy with many small drawers behind a very strange, large wooden machine with a giant steering wheel and screw, in the midst of cold air and an acrid smell. When he turned around and saw her he began to shout at her in a language she didn’t understand. She stuck out her tongue, dashed out the door, closed it, opened it again, went into the bathroom and washed her hands for lunch. Again, after lunch, many years later, she opened the door of her room and walked into a battlefield. She dipped her hands in the blood of the wounded and dead and pulled from the neck of a cadaver a crucifix that she wore for a long time under high-necked blouses or dresses without plunging necklines. She now keeps it in a tin box underneath the nightgowns with a brooch, a pair of earrings and a broken wristwatch that used to belong to her mother-in-law. In the same way, involuntarily and by chance, she visited three monasteries, seven libraries, and the highest mountains in the world, and who knows how many theaters, cathedrals, jungles, refrigeration plants, dens of vice, universities, brothels, forests, stores, submarines, hotels, trenches, islands, factories, palaces, hovels, towers and hell. She’s lost count and doesn’t care; any door could lead anywhere and that has the same value as the thickness of the ravioli dough, her mother’s death, and the life crises that she sees on TV and reads about in TV Guide. Not long ago she took her daughter to the doctor, and seeing the closed door of a bathroom in the clinic, she smiled. She wasn’t sure because she can never be sure, but she got up and went to the bathroom. However, it was a bathroom; at least there was a nude man in a bathtub full of water. It was all very large, with a high ceiling, marble floor and decorations hanging from the closed windows. The man seemed to be asleep in his white bathtub, short but deep, and she saw a razor on a wrought iron table with feet decorated with iron flowers and leaves and ending in lion’s paws, a razor, a mirror, a curling iron, towels, a box of talcum powder and an earthen bowl with water. She approached on tiptoe, retrieved the razor, tiptoed over to the sleeping man in the tub and beheaded him. She threw the razor on the floor and rinsed her hands in the lukewarm bathtub water. She turned around when she reached the clinic corridor and spied a girl going into the bathroom through the other door. Her daughter looked at her. “That was quick.” “The toilet was broken,” she answered. A few days afterward, she beheaded another man in a blue tent at night. That man and a woman were sleeping mostly uncovered by the blankets of a low, king-size bed, and the wind beat around the tent and slanted the flames of the oil lamps. Beyond it there would be another camp, soldiers, animals, sweat, manure, orders and weapons. But inside there was a sword by the leather and metal uniforms, and with it she cut off the head of the bearded man. The woman stirred and opened her eyes as she went out the door on her way back to the patio that she had been mopping. On Monday and Thursday afternoons, when she irons shirt collars, she thinks of the slit necks and the blood, and she waits. If it’s summer she goes out to sweep a little after putting away the clothing and until her husband arrives. If it’s windy she sits in the kitchen and knits. But she doesn’t always find sleeping men or staring cadavers. One rainy morning, when she was twenty, she was at a prison, and she made fun of the chained prisoners; one night when the kids were kids and were all living at home, she saw in a square a disheveled woman looking at a gun but not daring to take it out of her open purse. She walked up to her, put the gun in the woman’s hand and stayed there until a car parked at the corner, until the woman saw a man in gray get out and look for his keys in his pocket, until the woman aimed and fired. And another night while she was doing her sixth grade geography homework, she went to look for crayons in her room and stood next to a man who was crying on a balcony. The balcony was so high, so far above the street, that she had an urge to push him to hear the thud down below, but she remembered the orographic map of South America and was about to leave. Anyhow, since the man hadn’t seen her, she did push him and saw him disappear and ran to color in the map so she didn’t hear the thud, only the scream. And in an empty theater, she made a fire underneath the velvet curtain; in a riot she opened the cover to a basement hatchway; in a house, sitting on top of a desk, she shredded a two-thousand-page manuscript; in a clearing of a forest she buried the weapons of the sleeping men; in a river she opened the floodgates of a dike. Her daughter’s name is Laura Inés, her son has a fiancée in San Nicolás and he’s promised to bring her over on Sunday so she and her husband can meet her. She has to remind herself to ask her sister-in-law for the recipe for orange cake, and Friday on TV is the first episode of a new soap opera. Again, she runs the iron over the front of the shirt and remembers the other side of the doors that are always carefully closed in her house, that other side where the things that happen are much less abominable than the ones we experience on this side, as you can easily understand.
The Unmistakable Smell of Wood Violets [Tr by Womack]
Translated for the first time in Ann and Jeff Vandermeer's Big Book of Science Fiction (Vintage, 2016):
The news spread fast. It would be correct to say that the news moved like a flaming trail of gunpowder, if it weren't for the fact that at this point in our civilization gunpowder was archaeology, ashes in time, the stuff of legend, nothingness. However, it was because of the magic of our new civilization that the news was known all over the world, practically instantaneously. "Oooh!" the tsarina said. You have to take into account that Her Gracious and Most Illustrious Virgin Majesty Ekaterina V, Empress of Holy Russia, had been carefully educated in the proper decorum befitting the throne, which meant that she would never have even raised an eyebrow or curved the corner of her lip, far less would she have made an interjection of that rude and vulgar kind. But not only did she say "Oooh!," she also got up and walked through the room until she reached the glass doors of the great balcony. She stopped there. Down below, covered by snow, Saint Leninburg was indifferent and unchanged, the city's eyes squinting under the weight of winter. At the palace, ministers and advisers were excited, on edge. "And where is this place?" the tsarina asked. And that is what happened in Russia, which is such a distant and atypical country. In the central states of the continent, there was real commotion. In Bolivia, in Paraguay, in Madagascar, in all the great powers, and in the countries that aspired to be great powers, such as High Peru, Iceland, or Morocco, hasty conversations took place at the highest possible level with knitted brows and hired experts. The strongest currencies became unstable: the guarani rose, the Bolivian peso went down half a point, the crown was discreetly removed from the exchange rates for two long hours, long queues formed in front of the exchanges in front of all the great capitals of the world. President Morillo spoke from the Oruro Palace and used the opportunity to make a concealed warning (some would call it a threat) to the two Peruvian republics and the Minas Gerais secessionist area. Morillo had handed over the presidency of Minas to his nephew, Pepe Morillo, who had proved to be a wet blanket whom everybody could manipulate, and now Morillo bitterly regretted his decision. Morocco and Iceland did little more than give their diplomats a gentle nudge in the ribs, anything to shake them into action, as they imagined them all to be sipping grenadine and mango juice in the deep south while servants in shiny black uniforms stood over them with fans. The picturesque note came from the Independent States of North America. It could not have been otherwise. Nobody knew that all the states were now once again under the control of a single president, but that's how it was: some guy called Jack Jackson-Franklin, who had been a bit-part actor in videos, and who, aged eighty-seven, had discovered his extremely patriotic vocation of statesman. Aided by his singular and inexplicable charisma, and by his suspect family tree, according to which he was the descendent of two presidents who had ruled over the states during their glory days, he had managed to unify, at least for now, the seventy-nine northern states. Anyway, Mr. Jackson-Franklin said to the world that the Independent States would not permit such a thing to take place. No more, just that they would not permit such a thing to take place. The world laughed uproariously at this. Over there, in the Saint Leninburg palace, ministers cleared their throats, advisers swallowed saliva, trying to find out if, by bobbing their Adam's apples up and down enough, they might be able to loosen their stiff official shirts. "Ahem. Ahem. It's in the south. A long way to the south. In the west, Your Majesty." "It is. Humph. Ahem. It is, Your Majesty, a tiny country in a tiny territory." "It says that it is in Argentina," the tsarina said, still staring through the window but without paying any attention to the night as it fell over the snow-covered roofs and the frozen shores of the Baltic. "Ah, yes, that's right, that's right, Your Majesty, a pocket republic." Sergei Vasilievich Kustkarov, some kind of councilor and, what is more, an educated and sensible man, broke into the conversation. "Several, Your Majesty, it is several." And at last the tsarina turned around. Who cared a fig for the Baltic night, the snow-covered rooftops, the roofs themselves, and the city of which they were a part? Heavy silk crackled, starched petticoats, lace. "Several of what, Councilor Kustkarov, several of what? Don't come to me with your ambiguities." "I must say, Your Majesty, I had not the slightest intention--" "Several of what?" The tsarina looked directly at him, her lips held tightly together, her hands moving unceasingly, and Kustkarov panicked, as well he might. "Rep-rep-republics, Your Majesty," he blurted out. "Several of them. Apparently, a long time ago, a very long time, it used to be a single territory, and now it is several, several republics, but their inhabitants, the people who live in all of them, all of the republics, are called, they call themselves, the people, that is, Argentinians." The tsarina turned her gaze away. Kustkarov felt so relieved that he was encouraged to carry on speaking: "There are seven of them, Your Majesty: Rosario, Entre dos Rios, Ladocta, Ona, Riachuelo, Yujujuy, and Labodegga." The tsarina sat down. "We must do something," she said. Silence. Outside it was not snowing, but inside it appeared to be. The tsarina looked at the transport minister. "This enters into your portfolio," she said. Kustkarov sat down, magnificently. How lucky he was to be a councilor, a councilor with no specific duties. The transport minister, on the other hand, turned pale. "I think, Your Majesty...," he dared to say. "Don't think! Do something!" "Yes, Your Majesty," the minister said, and, bowing, started to make his way to the door. "Where do you think you're going?" the tsarina said, without moving her mouth or twitching an eyelid. "I'm just, I'm going, I'm just going to see what can be done, Your Majesty." There's nothing that can be done, Sergei Vasilievich thought in delight, nothing. He realized that he was not upset, but instead he felt happy. And on top of everything else a woman, he thought. Kustkarov was married to Irina Waldoska-Urtiansk, a real beauty, perhaps the most beautiful woman in all of Holy Russia. Perhaps he was being cuckolded; it would have been all too easy for him to find that out, but he did not want to. His thoughts turned in a circle: and on top of everything else a woman. He looked at the tsarina and was struck, not for the first time, by her beauty. She was not so beautiful as Irina, but she was magnificent. In Rosario it was not snowing, not because it was summer, although it was, but because it never snowed in Rosario. And there weren't any palm trees: the Moroccans would have been extremely disappointed had they known, but their diplomats said nothing about the Rosario flora in their reports, partly because the flora of Rosario was now practically nonexistent, and partly because diplomats are supposed to be above that kind of thing. Everyone who was not a diplomat, that is to say, everyone, the population of the entire republic that in the last ten years had multiplied vertiginously and had now reached almost two hundred thousand souls, was euphoric, happy, triumphant. They surrounded her house, watched over her as she slept, left expensive imported fruits outside her door, followed her down the street. Some potentate allowed her the use of a Ford 99, which was one of the five cars in the whole country, and a madman who lived in the Espinillos cemetery hauled water all the way up from the Pará lagoon and grew a flower for her which he then gave her. "How nice," she said, then went on, dreamily, "Will there be flowers where I'm going?" They assured her that there would be. She trained every day. As they did not know exactly what it was she had to do to train herself, she got up at dawn, ran around the Independence crater, skipped, did some gymnastic exercises, ate little, learned how to hold her breath, and spent hours and hours sitting or curled into strange positions. She also danced the waltz. She was almost positive that the waltz was not likely to come in handy, but she enjoyed it very much. Meanwhile, farther away, the trail of gunpowder had become a barrel of dynamite, although dynamite was also a legendary substance and didn't exist. The infoscreens in every country, whether poor or rich, central or peripheral, developed or not, blazed forth with extremely large headlines suggesting dates, inventing biographical details, trying to hide, without much success, their envy and confusion. No one was fooled: "We have been wretchedly beaten," the citizens of Bolivia said. "Who would have thought it," pondered the man on the Reykjavík omnibus. The former transport minister of Holy Russia was off breaking stones in Siberia. Councilor Sergei Vasilievich Kustkarov was sleeping with the tsarina, but that was only a piece of low, yet spicy, gossip that has nothing to do with this story. "We will not allow this to happen!" Mr. Jackson-Franklin blustered, tugging nervously at his hairpiece. "It is our own glorious history that has set aside for us this brilliant destiny! It is we, we and not this despicable banana republic, who are marked for this glory!" Mr. Jackson-Franklin also did not know that there were no palm trees or bananas in Rosario, but this was due not to a lack of reports from his diplomats but rather a lack of diplomats. Diplomats are a luxury that a poor country cannot afford, and so poor countries often go to great pains to take offense and recall all the knights commanders and lawyers and doctors and even eventually the generals working overseas, in order to save money on rent and electricity and gas and salaries, not to mention the cost of the banquets and all the money in brown paper envelopes. But the headlines kept on appearing on the infoscreens: "Argentinian Astronaut Claims She Will Reach Edge of Universe," "Sources Claim Ship Is Spaceworthy in Spite of or Because of Centuries-Long Interment," "Science or Catastrophe?," "Astronaut Not a Woman but a Transsexual" (this in the Imperialskaya Gazeta, the most puritan of the infoscreens, even more so than the Papal Piccolo Osservatore Lombardo), "Ship Launches," "First Intergalactic Journey in Centuries," "We Will Not Allow This to Happen!" (Portland Times). She was dancing the waltz. She woke up with her heart thumping, tried out various practical hairstyles, ran, skipped, drank only filtered water, ate only olives, avoided spies and journalists, went to see the ship every day, just to touch it. The mechanics all adored her. "It'll work, they'll see, it'll work," the chief engineer said defiantly. Nobody contradicted him. No one dared say that it wouldn't. It would make it, of course it would make it. Not without going through many incredible adventures on its lengthy journey. Lengthy? No one knew who Langevin was anymore, so no one was shocked to discover that his theory contradicted itself, ended up biting its own tail, and that however long the journey took, the observers would only perceive it as having lasted minutes. Someone called Cervantes, a very famous personage back in the early years of human civilization--it was still debated whether he had been a physicist, a poet, or a musician--had suggested a similar theory in one of his lost works. One autumn dawn the ship took off from the Independence crater, the most deserted part of the whole desert republic of Rosario, at five forty-five in the morning. The exact time is recorded because the inhabitants of the country had all pitched in together to buy a clock, which they thought the occasion deserved (there was one other clock, in the Enclosed Convent of the Servants of Santa Rita de Casino, but because the convent was home to an enclosed order nothing ever went in or out of it, no news, no requests, no answers, no nothing). Unfortunately, they had not had enough money. But then someone had had the brilliant idea which had brought in the money they needed, and Rosario had hired out its army for parades in friendly countries: there weren't that many of them and the ones there were weren't very rich, but they managed to get the cash together. Anyone who was inspired by patriotism and by the proximity of glory had to see those dashing officers, those disciplined soldiers dressed in gold and crimson, protected by shining breastplates, capped off with plumed helmets, their catapults and pouches of stones at their waists, goose-stepping through the capital of Entre Dos Rios or the Padrone Giol vineyards in Labodegga, at the foot of the majestic Andes. The ship blasted off. It got lost against the sky. Before the inhabitants of Rosario, their hearts in their throats and their eyes clouded by emotion, had time to catch their breath, a little dot appeared up there, getting bigger and bigger, and it was the ship coming back down. It landed at 06:11 on the same morning of that same autumn day. The clock that recorded this is preserved in the Rosario Historical Museum. It no longer works, but anyone can go and see it in its display cabinet in Room A of the Museum. In Room B, in another display case, is the so-called Carballensis Indentic Axe, the fatal tool that cut down all the vegetation of Rosario and turned the whole country into a featureless plain. Good and evil, side by side, shoulder to shoulder. Twenty-six minutes on Earth, many years on board the ship. Obviously, she did not have a watch or a calendar with her: the republic of Rosario would not have been able to afford either of them. But it was many years, she knew that much. Leaving the galaxy was a piece of cake. You can do it in a couple of jumps, everyone knows that, following the instructions that Albert Einsteinstein, the multifaceted violin virtuoso, director of sci-fi movies, and student of space-time, gave us a few hundred years back. But the ship did not set sail to the very center of the universe, as its predecessors had done in the great era of colonization and discovery; no, the ship went right to the edge of the universe. Everyone also knows that there is nothing in the universe, not even the universe itself, which does not grow weaker as you reach its edge. From pancakes to arteries, via love, rubbers, photographs, revenge, bridal gowns, and power. Everything tends to imperceptible changes at the beginning, rapid change afterward; everything at the edge is softer and more blurred, as the threads start to fray from the center to the outskirts. In the time it took her to take a couple of breaths, a breath and a half, over the course of many years, she passed through habitable and uninhabitable places, worlds which had once been classified as existent, worlds which did not appear and had never appeared and probably would never appear in any cartographical survey. Planets of exiles, singing sands, minutes and seconds in tatters, whirlpools of nothingness, space junk, and that's without even mentioning those beings and things, all of which stood completely outside any possibility of description, so much so that we tend not to perceive them when we look at them; all of this, and shock, and fear more than anything else, and loneliness. The hair grew gray at her temples, her flesh lost its firmness, wrinkles appeared around her eyes and her mouth, her knees and ankles started to act up, she slept less than before and had to half close her eyes and lean backward in order to make out the numbers on the consoles. And she was so tired that it was almost unbearable. She did not waltz any longer: she put an old tape into an old machine and listened and moved her gray head in time with the orchestra. She reached the edge of the universe. Here was where everything came to an end, so completely that even her tiredness disappeared and she felt once again as full of enthusiasm as she had when she was younger. There were hints, of course: salt storms, apparitions, little brushstrokes of white against the black of space, large gaps made of sound, echoes of long-dead voices that had died giving sinister orders, ash, drums; but when she reached the edge itself, these indications gave way to space signage: "End," "You Are Reaching the Universe Limits," "The Cosmos General Insurance Company, YOUR Company, Says: GO NO FURTHER," "End of Protected Cosmonaut Space," etc., as well as the scarlet polygon that the OMUU had adopted to use as a sign for that's it, abandon all hope, the end. All right, so she was here. The next thing to do was go back. But the idea of going back never occurred to her. Women are capricious creatures, just like little boys: as soon as they get what they want, then they want something else. She carried on. There was a violent judder as she crossed the limit. Then there was silence, peace, calm. All very alarming, to tell the truth. The needles did not move, the lights did not flash, the ventilation system did not hiss, her alveoli did not vibrate, her chair did not swivel, the screens were blank. She got up, went to the portholes, looked out, saw nothing. It was logical enough: "Of course," she said to herself, "when the universe comes to an end, then there's nothing." She looked out through the portholes a little more, just in case. She still could see nothing, but she had an idea. "But I'm here," she said. "Me and the ship." She put on a space suit and walked out into the nothing. When the ship landed in the Independence crater in the republic of Rosario, twenty-six minutes after it had taken off, when the hatch opened and she appeared on the ramp, the spirit of Paul Langevin flew over the crater, laughing fit to burst. The only people who heard him were the madman who had grown the flower for her in the Espinillos cemetery and a woman who was to die that day. No one else had ears or fingers or tongue or feet, far less did they have eyes to see him. It was the same woman who had left, the very same, and this calmed the crowds down at the same time as it disappointed them, all the inhabitants of the country, the diplomats, the spies, and the journalists. It was only when she came down the gangplank and they came closer to her that they saw the network of fine wrinkles around her eyes. All other signs of her old age had vanished, and had she wished, she could have waltzed tirelessly, for days and nights on end, from dusk till dawn till dusk. The journalists all leaned forward; the diplomats made signals, which they thought were subtle and unseen, to the bearers of their sedan chairs to be ready to take them back to their residences as soon as they had heard what she had to say; the spies took photographs with the little cameras hidden away in their shirt buttons or their wisdom teeth; all the old people put their hands together; the men raised their fists to their heart; the little boys pranced; the young girls smiled. And then she told them what she had seen: "I took off my suit and my helmet," she said, "and walked along the invisible avenues that smelled of violets." She did not know that the whole world was waiting to hear what she said; that Ekaterina V had made Sergei Vasilievich get up at five o'clock in the morning so that he could accompany her to the grand salon and wait there for the news; that one of the seventy-nine Northern States had declared its independence because the president had not stopped anything from happening or obtained any glory, and this had lit the spark of rebellion in the other seventy-eight states, and this had made Mr. Jackson-Franklin leave the White House without his wig, in pajamas, freezing and furious; that Bolivia, Paraguay, and Iceland had allowed the two Peruvian republics to join their new alliance and defense treaty set up against a possible attack from space; that the high command of the Paraguayan aeronautical engineers had promised to build a ship that could travel beyond the limits of the universe, always assuming that they could be granted legal immunity and a higher budget, a declaration that made the guarani fall back the two points that it had recently risen and then another one as well; that Don Schicchino Giol, the new padrone of the Republic of Labodegga at the foot of the majestic Andes had been woken from his most recent drinking bout to be told that he had now to sign a declaration of war against the Republic of Rosario, now that they knew the strength of the enemy's forces. "Eh? What? Hunh?" Don Schicchino said. "I saw the nothingness of everything," she said, "and it was all infused with the unmistakable smell of wood violets. The nothingness of the world is like the inside of a stomach throbbing above your head. The nothingness of people is like the back of a painting, black, with glasses and wires that release dreams of order and imperfect destinies. The nothingness of creatures with leathery wings is a crack in the air and the rustle of tiny feet. The nothingness of history is the massacre of the innocents. The nothingness of words, which is a throat and a hand that break whatever they touch on perforated paper; the nothingness of music, which is music. The nothingness of precincts, of crystal glasses, of seams, of hair, of liquids, of lights, of keys, of food." When she had finished her list, the potentate who owned the Ford 99 said that he would give it to her, and that in the afternoon he would send one of his servants with a liter of naphtha so that she could take the car out for a spin. "Thank you," she said. "You are very generous." The madman went away, looking up to the skies; who knows what he was searching for. The woman who was going to die that day asked herself what she should eat on Sunday, when her sons and their wives came to lunch. The president of the Republic of Rosario gave a speech. And everything in the world carried on the same, apart from the fact that Ekaterina V named Kustkarov her interior minister, which terrified the poor man but which was welcomed with open arms by Irina as an opportunity for her to refresh her wardrobe and her stock of lovers. And Jack Jackson-Franklin sold his memoirs to one of Paraguay's more sophisticated magazines for a stellar amount of money, which allowed him to retire to live in Imerina. And six spaceships from six major world powers set off to the edges of the universe and were never seen again. She married a good man who had a house with a balcony, a white bicycle, and a radio which, on clear days, could pick up the radio plays that LLL1 Radio Magnum transmitted from Entre Dos Rios, and she waltzed in white satin shoes. The day that her first son was born a very pale green shoot grew out of the ground on the banks of the great lagoon.
USD (DXY) up 0.08%, EUR down 0.04%, GBP down 0.50%, JPY down 0.12%, CNY Onshore up 0.12%, CNH Offshore up 0.02%, AUD down 0.23%
VIX up 0.65% to 9.25
Gold up 0.13% to $1,269.01
Silver down 0.11% to $16.62
Copper up 0.25% to $305.40
WTI Crude down 0.79% to $50.39
Brent Crude down 0.18% to $56.90
Natural Gas down 0.44% to $2.91
Corn down 0.07% to $3.49/bu
Wheat up 0.06% to $4.41/bu
Bitcoin up 1.55% to $4,414.56
Treasuries 2yr yields are up ~1.3bps at 1.500%, 10yr yields are up ~1.6bps at 2.364% and 30yr yields are up ~0.9bps at 2.899%
Japan 10yr yields 0.045%, up ~1.0bps on the day
France 10yr yields 0.750%, up ~1.9bps on the day
Italy 10yr yields 2.156%, up ~1.8bps on the day
Spain 10yr yields 1.704%, up ~1.8bps on the day
Germany 10yr yields 0.474%, up ~2.2bps on the day
Trading Update
What’s happening this morning? It was another slow evening of news other than the German Aug factory order numbers (which were very strong although the euro and Eurozone stocks are both in the red), a few US earnings reports (COST and YUMC), andsome M&A (GIMO, HON, JWN, PENN/PNK, SNCR, and more). The overall macro narrativeremains the same as it was at the Thurs close (see below for an update on the macro narrative as well as potential upcoming risks). The major Asian indices generally saw gains – TPX +0.28%, NKY +0.3%, Hang Seng +0.28%, HSCEI +0.54%, Taiwan +0.14%, Australia +1.04%, and India +0.5-7% (mainland China and Korea were both closed). There weren’t any huge themes in Asia although Macau casino stocks were weak in HK on back of underwhelming Golden Week visitor numbers (autos and financials led HK on the upside). Australia’s 1% rally was led by banks, miners, and telecoms. The major Eurozone indices are trading off small (~10-20bp); autos are outperforming while banks, retail, energy, and utilities lag. The GBP is extending its losses from Thurs amid more uncertainty around UK PM May (the DXY spiked ~50bp Thurs and is up small so far Fri morning). US S&P futures are trading down 1-2 points.
Calendar for Fri 10/6 – the focus will be on the US jobs report for Sept (8:30amET), US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug (10amET), US consumer credit for Aug (3pmET), and Fed speakers (Kaplan 8:30amET on CNBC, Bostic 9:15amET, Dudley 12:15pmET, Kaplan 12:45pmET, and Bullard 1pmET). o US jobs preview – there is very little anticipation or focus on the Sept jobs report (Fri morning 8/6 8:30amET) as 1) most are anticipating large storm-related distortions and 2) at this point in the cycle it only requires ~75K monthly adds to keep the UR steady (as was discussed in this JPMorgan report http://bit.ly/2fbT6cE). The St is in print at +80K for adds (vs. ADP for Sept at +135K and Aug BLS +156K) w/a 4.4% UR (unchanged w/Aug) and wages +0.3% M/M and +2.5% Y/Y (vs. Aug +0.1% M/M and +2.5% Y/Y). It’s very difficult to see the Sept BLS report changing the near-term US monetary policy trajectory (w/ongoing normalization and a FF hike on 12/13). The potential for a hike on 11/1 is very low and if anything the Sept CPI on Fri 10/13 may be a more important data point than jobs on Fri 10/6. Instead, the bigger Fed uncertainty has nothing to do w/data or policy but instead concerns staffing (i.e. who will be the next chair? A Trump announcement could come as soon as next week – Powell and Warsh are the frontrunners according to media reports w/the former appearing to have a slight edge).
Top Headlines for Friday
Eco data recap for Fri morning 10/6 – the big data came out of Germany where factory orders for Aug beat expectations by a wide margin (orders +3.6% M/M vs. the St +0.7% and +7.8% Y/Y vs. the St +4.7%). See JPMorgan’s comments on the German data (http://bit.ly/2y42sh4). Japan’s wage inflation figures for Aug were soft, as expected (http://bit.ly/2kuygr0). o Fed chair – markets would be comfortable w/any of the main candidates (including Powell, Warsh, Cohn, Yellen, etc.) w/the exception of one person: John Taylor. Bloomberg. o Fed update – Kansas City Fed President George spoke Thurs night and said the US economy needed further rates hikes (http://cnb.cx/2kqTiqj). JPMorgan’s Mike Feroli published an updated FOMC hawk/dove chart following the confirmation of Quarles (http://bit.ly/2z1jSti). o Japan’s “Party of Hope” unveils an economic agenda that pledges to rely less on aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus – Reuters http://reut.rs/2ghahXu o AUD hit as RBA’s Harper doesn’t rule out a rate cut in a WSJ article. http://on.wsj.com/2xW3nkD
UK PM May the subject of more speculation amid disclosure of plot to topple her; former party chairman, Grant Shapps, said May’s leadership should now be challenged. Reuters http://reut.rs/2yMrmzB
Spain/Catalonia – Spain’s Constitutional Court ordered the suspension of the Catalan parliament’s regional session scheduled for Mon; Catalonia had planned on declaring independence at the session. Reuters http://reut.rs/2xlDfjC o Spain’s gov’t will change rules and make it easier for firms to move their legal base out of Catalonia – Reuters http://reut.rs/2z1WQCF
Tax update - there is a lot of focus on taxes in the US as the Senate Budget Committee (right at the Thurs close) and the full House (at ~1pmET Thurs afternoon) advance budget resolutions (the full Senate will presumably vote within the next two weeks). This is a necessary step in the tax process (as these resolutions contain the reconciliation instructions allowing tax to pass via a simple majority in the Senate) but also a relatively minor one. Far more complicated will be agreeing on rates, deduction schedules, deficits, etc., and if anything all the press in the last few days and weeks point to divisions within the GOP on these matters being larger than anticipated. o Schumer warns that the proposal to eliminate the SALT deduction will kill the GOP tax plan – Bloomberg. https://bloom.bg/2xXX8KL o GOP desire to repeal the estate tax runs into resistance - from Republicans. As a result this piece of the 9/27 tax blueprint (among others) may wind up being scrapped - WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2gf9G8E o Fed officials express concern over tax plans – Fed officials warned the tax plan may only provide a temporary boost to growth while fueling inflation and driving debt to unsustainable levels – Reuters http://reut.rs/2xWMrdG
Republican headaches keep growing as donors withhold money, a tax consensus fails to materialize, and “establishment” figures depart the scene (Strange losing to Moore, Corker retiring, etc.). Republican leaders are increasingly concerned about the party’s grip on the House and Senate should it fail to pass a tax bill. Leaders “fear that the inchoate populism that Mr. Trump personifies, and which Mr. Bannon is attempting to weaponize against incumbents, is on the march” – NYT http://nyti.ms/2y3lUKT
Trump looks to jolt NAFTA – the White House is considering a proposal that would represent a radical shift to the principles underlying NAFTA. According to rule changes being considered, automobiles would need to have a specific level of US-made content in order to qualify for tariff breaks (right now autos only need to have a specific level of content from within the NAFTA region). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2y4LXlo
Trump makes cryptic comment ahead of a dinner with US military leaders. Trump said the dinner might represent “the calm before the storm”. Asked repeatedly by reporters to clarify his comments, Trump said, “You’ll find out” – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2xXI2r6
Trump was “furious” over NBC’s Tillerson “moron” article; John Kelly was forced to rearrange his schedule and stayed in Washington in order to try and calm tensions – NBC. http://nbcnews.to/2fOGx3B
Iran/Trump – Trump will “decertify” the Iran nuclear accord next week (speech on 10/12) and declare the agreement as not being in the US national interest according to the Washington Post (article out at ~2:40pmET Thurs afternoon). This is consistent w/what the AP and Politico reported earlier in the week. Note that Trump’s 10/12 declarations won’t end the Iranian nuclear pact as it will be up to Congress whether re-impose sanctions on Tehran (and Trump will hold off on recommending such a step). Washington Post http://wapo.st/2z1zeOw o Decertifying the Iran Deal Wouldn’t Have to Kill It – WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2y40dKY
North Korea – US lawmakers are pressuring the Trump White House to toughen sanctions against North Korea – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xlKdVQ
The Economist's lead article this week speaks to sentiment at the moment and this is one of the big reasons why stocks are proving to be so resilient. "Asset prices are high across the board. Is it time to worry?" (http://econ.st/2xVXOjv). o The WSJ notes that a key European junk-bond index is now yielding less than 10yr US TSYs although it offers a reasonable explanation for this ostensibly irrational price level – WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xkwYVb
Company-specific news update from Thurs night. There were a few earnings reports out Thurs AMC but for the most part it was another slow evening. COST EPS beats thanks to better SG&A and favorable tax while GMs were light; Sept same-store-sales beat w/upside in the US (the stock ended down 3% during the Thurs after-hours trading session). YUMC’s results came in ahead of expectations (EPS/same-store-sales) and it increased capital return. SNCR reentered M&A talks w/Siris Capital (Siris is looking to buy SNCR’s Intralinks and may take a ~20% equity stake in SNCR); SNCR ended up ~27% during the Thurs after-hours trading session. According to the WSJ, HON is pursuing an acquisition of Evoqua Water Tech in a deal that could be worth $3B (http://on.wsj.com/2yseCSp). The WSJ reported (during trading on Thurs http://on.wsj.com/2xjE24p) on merger talks between PENN and PNK (the firms have been unable to agree to terms but PENN is still interested in buying PNK).
JWN buyout not completely dead – the Nordstrom family is exploring a new deal structure w/Leonard Green that would involve less debt. The family is trying to raise more equity (although it isn’t clear where the money will come from). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2ggTvbh
GIMO – Elliot’s takeover talks w/the company have ground to a halt according to Reuters over price disagreements – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fNCepo
SUM, ASHG – SUM has made a rival bid for ASHG as it looks to scuttle the existing Ash Grove-CRH PLC transaction. Ash Grove’s board said the offer could result in a superior proposal and that it would engage in talks with the third party. Bloomberg.
AMZN: the one market where Amazon is failing to dominate: Hollywood. The WSJ discusses AMZN’s failure to become a force in content. WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2xZcJtr
Macau casino stocks slump during Fri trading as Golden Week visitor numbers disappoint expectations – Bloomberg https://bloom.bg/2fOuGmd
Identifying risks – what could go wrong?
Reflation enthusiasm is undercut by less aggressive CB normalization, dramatic curve flattening, and/or a softening in nominal growth. Of all the reflation pieces (monetary policy normalization, expansionary fiscal policy, firming inflation, and ongoing real growth strength), the last piece (real growth) is increasingly being taken for granted.
Bank investors wind up focusing too much on reflation/yields (which are tailwinds) but miss weakening credit (higher provisions) and tepid loan growth.
The first speech by the next Fed chair unsettles sentiment (assuming the chair isn’t Yellen).
The tax process slows in Washington as Republicans prove incapable of reaching a consensus on rates, deductions, and deficits.
Paul Ryan decides to “pull a Boehner”, stepping down as Speaker out of frustration with his inability to pass legislation.
The final tax bill results in materially higher rates for upper-income Americans.
May winds up stepping down as UK PM, sowing ongoing Brexit uncertainty.
Abe does much worse than anticipated during the upcoming Japan election (10/22).
North Korea conducts an above-ground nuclear bomb test (or even worse, an atmospheric test).
Iran decides to resume its nuclear weapons program, sparking an immediate escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions (Trump’s Iran speech is coming up on 10/12).
Washington introduces (or threatens to introduce) tough new regulations aimed at internet/social media companies following the Russia election investigations (note that US internet giants will be testifying before Congress on 11/1).
Prominent members of the Trump team decide to leave the gov’t (the market would be particularly sensitive to Tillerson, Mattis, Kelly, and/or Cohn departing; recent media reports suggest the Tillerson-Trump relationship is particularly strained).
Macro Update
The pro-reflation bias commenced back on 9/11 and has been propelled ever since by ongoing real growth strength, firming inflation, normalizing monetary policy/rhetoric, and expansionary fiscal policy (in particular in the US w/the 9/27 tax blueprint but also in Germany following that country’s election outcome and fin min change).
This enthusiasm can extend for a few more weeks but the ECB/BOE decisions (on 10/26 and 11/2, respectively) will mark the culmination of a series of pro-reflation catalysts/developments and thus the trade may enter a period of extended consolidation around those central bank events.
Meanwhile the nuances of this present reflation process aren’t being appreciated – growth and corporate earnings are late-cycle (not early), multiples are already rich (although not necessarily ridiculous), inflation is only very gradually firming to target, the economy faces enormous structural headwinds in the form of labor supply and productivity growth, and while central banks are normalizing policy will stay extremely accommodative for years to come (the structural headwinds and slow tightening pace will prevent yields from materially rising and curves from significantly steepening).
The tenor of sentiment is beginning to evolve and there is definitely greater frustration w/people being forced to participate in a tape many don’t particularly love at present levels – this helps fuel runs such has occurred over the last few weeks (the SPX hasn’t closed in the red since Mon 9/25) but it also makes for a precarious setup w/a lot of weak “renters” who will be quick to sell the minute momentum pauses.
Bottom Line: the lack of major catalysts is helping the rally propagate and the calendar is relatively clear until earnings (which kick off w/banks on Thurs 10/12). The reflation impetus will likely stay in place into the ECB/BOE (10/26 and 11/2, respectively) after which a consolidation (at least) is likely (note that a lot of the “easy” tax steps are occurring now – the blueprint on 9/27, the budget resolutions, etc. However, reaching a consensus on rates, deductions, and deficits will be extremely difficult and this will become more apparent later in Oct and into Nov, around the same time as the ECB/BOE decisions).
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Oct 9
Calendar for the week of 10/9 – overall it should be a relatively slow week although a few items are in focus. The current reflation emphasis makes the US CPI on Fri 10/13 prob. the single most important eco data point of the week but there are other numbers in focus (German trade/IP for Aug and China imports/exports for Sept). The CQ3 earnings season kicks off in earnest with the banks on Thurs and Friday. Away from scheduled events, media reports suggest Catalonia could formally declare independence on Mon (although this could easily be delayed following court challenges and as the region’s leaders seek a settlement w/Madrid) while the White House may unveil its infrastructure spending blueprint during the week of 10/9 (http://bit.ly/2wwiop9). South Korean security officials have warned that North Korea may fire additional missiles between 10/10 and 10/18 while Trump’s Fed chair selection could come soon (media reports suggest Powell and Warsh are the two frontrunners). Trump is expected to deliver an Iranian policy speech on/around Thurs 10/12 during which he will declare the nuclear deal as no longer being in the US national interest. HON has said it will announce its formal portfolio review decision prior to earnings (media reports, including on CNBC, suggest it will retain its aerospace unit).
Calendar for Mon 10/9 – the day should be pretty quiet owing to the US Columbus Day holiday (equities will be open but fixed income is closed). The focus will be on the China FX reserve numbers for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning 10/7), the China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning), Germany’s industrial production for Aug (2amET), and earnings (LVMH reports results after the European close).
Calendar for Tues 10/10 – the focus will be on the German trade figures for Aug (2amET), a bunch of analyst meetings (including TECD, Santander, WDAY, and WMT), the PG shareholder meeting (at which the Trian/Peltz board seat request will be voted on), and earnings (CUDA after the close).
Calendar for Wed 10/11 – the focus will be on the US JOLTs report for Aug (10amET), Fed minutes from the 9/20 meeting (2pmET), analyst meetings (KR), and earnings (DAL, BLK, FAST, and OZRK before the open).
Calendar for Thurs 10/12 – the focus will be on Eurozone IP for Aug (5amET), the US PPI for Sept (8:30amET), Trump’s Iran speech, analyst meetings (BOX, HPQ, LSCC, and WDC), and earnings (C, DPZ, JPM, LNN, Sky PLC, and Tata Consultancy pre-open).
Calendar for Fri 10/13 – the focus will be on China’s imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning), the US CPI for Sept (8:30amET), US retail sales for Sept (8:30amET), the Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct (10amET), US business inventories for Aug (10amET), analyst meetings (SAFM), and earnings (BAC, DRFG, FHN, FRC, JBHT, Man Group, PNC, and WFC pre-open).
Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months
China mainland markets closed Mon 10/2-Fri 10/6 for the National Day holiday.
US jobs report for Sept – Fri 10/6.
US infrastructure spending - the Trump White House may unveil its long-anticipated infrastructure plan during the week of 10/9 according to House Transport chairman Rep. Bill Shuster.
North Korea - South Korea’s national security adviser Chung Eui-yong said he expected Pyongyang to act around Oct. 10 and 18 (Reuters).
WMT analyst meeting – Tues 10/10 (note that KR has an analyst meeting the next day, Wed 10/11).
PG shareholder meeting – Tues 10/10 (decision to be made on Peltz’s board seat request).
Fed minutes – minutes from the 9/20 meeting will be released Wed 10/11. 2pmET.
HON – the co will announce its portfolio review decision before earnings in Oct.
Iran - Trump is planning to deliver an Iran policy speech on 10/12 and he is expected to say that the landmark 2015 nuclear deal is no longer in the U.S. national security interest (AP)
Bank earnings – the CQ3 earnings season kicks off w/Citigroup and JPM Thurs morning 10/12 while BAC, PNC, and WFC all report Fri 10/13.
US inflation – the Sept CPI will hit Fri 10/13.
IMF/World Bank - 2017 Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund. Oct 13-15 in Washington.
CQ3 earnings – the week of Mon 10/16 is the first busy week of the CQ3 reporting season.
Fed chair decision during the week of 10/16? Based on Trump’s “two to three” weeks comment (on Fri 9/29), his decision on a Fed chair could come as soon as the week of 10/16 (this week is also the first busy period of the CQ3 earnings season, the deadline for Trump to rule on the Iran nuclear deal, and the beginning of the China National Congress on 10/18). Media reports suggest the Fed chair frontrunners are Warsh and Powell followed by Yellen and Cohn.
China - the National Congress of the Communist Party of China starts Oct 18.
China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning) – Thurs morning 10/19.
EU leaders hold summit in Brussels. Oct 19-20. Brussels.
Japan – the country will hold snap elections on Sun 10/22.
Flash PMIs for Oct – Tues 10/24
ECB meeting/press conf. Thurs Oct 26. The ECB is expected to provide guidance on LSAP tapering at this meeting (St assumes LSAP drops from EU60B now to EU40B w/6 month extension).
Fed meeting – decision Wed 11/1 (no press conf. or supplemental).
FB/TWTR testifying before Senate on Russia and the election – Wed 11/1.
BOE decision – Thurs 11/2. The BOE is expected to hike rates at this meeting.
Trump trip to China – he is scheduled to visit China in November.
GE – the co will likely hold an analyst meeting 11/13 at which it will provide a refresh of its long-term financial guidance.
US inflation – the Oct CPI will hit on Wed 11/15.
Fed meeting minutes (from the 11/1 meeting) – Wed 11/22.
Flash PMIs for Nov. Fri 11/24.
OPEC meeting – the next formal OPEC leaders meeting is Nov 30 (a decision on extending the production agreement beyond Mar ’18 could be reached at this gathering).
US gov’t funding/debt ceiling – current legislation funds the gov’t and suspends the debt ceiling until 12/8 (the debt ceiling is unlikely to become binding again until “well into” 2018).
Alabama special Senate election – Tues 12/12.
Fed meeting – decision Wed Dec 13. There will be a press conf. and supplemental. The Fed is expected to hike rates at this meeting.
My company’s carbon footprint is the size of a small country. We need to act. Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2fWXc8V
The single greatest thing Republicans need right now – Washington Post http://wapo.st/2wBTG76
1949: The Year That Set the Course of Chinese-American Relations – NYT http://nyti.ms/2z2hGSv M&A/Strategic Actions
Brooklyn Nets – multiple suitors are in talks to buy a 49% stake in the NBA deal. Mikhail Prokhorov is seeking a valuation of >$2B for the entire team. NY Post. http://nyp.st/2y3KFY0 o Brooklyn Nets – BABA denied that its vice chairman, Joseph Tsai, was in talks to buy a stake in the Nets – Reuters http://reut.rs/2yuCBRa
GIMO – Elliot’s takeover talks w/the company have ground to a halt according to Reuters over price disagreements – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fNCepo
HON - according to the WSJ, HON is pursuing an acquisition of Evoqua Water Tech in a deal that could be worth $3B (http://on.wsj.com/2yseCSp).
HPQ, Samsung – China said it will approve HPQ’s purchase of Samsung’s printer business – Reuters http://reut.rs/2y06khP
JWN buyout not completely dead – the Nordstrom family is exploring a new deal structure w/Leonard Green that would involve less debt. The family is trying to raise more equity (although it isn’t clear where the money will come from). WSJ. http://on.wsj.com/2ggTvbh
PENN, PNK - the WSJ reported (during trading on Thurs http://on.wsj.com/2xjE24p) on merger talks between PENN and PNK (the firms have been unable to agree to terms but PENN is still interested in buying PNK).
Retailers helped through bankruptcy process – Reuters notes that many retailers are obtaining help during the bankruptcy process w/many being allowed to stay in business w/their store bases largely intact – Reuters http://reut.rs/2y3NcAN
SNCR - On October 4, 2017, SNCR and Siris determined to restart discussions regarding a potential transaction. Specifically, Siris is offering to buy Intralinks for $915MM cash, invest $185MM for a convert worth ~20% of SNCR’s common shares, and cancel the ~6MM SNCR common shares it now owns.
SUM, ASHG – SUM has made a rival bid for ASHG as it looks to scuttle the existing Ash Grove-CRH PLC transaction. Ash Grove’s board said the offer could result in a superior proposal and that it would engage in talks with the third party. Bloomberg.
Unilever – the co is seeking PE bids for its spreads business by 10/19; a sale could be worth $8B – Reuters http://reut.rs/2fNDYPe
Full catalyst list
Fri Oct 6 – German factory orders for Aug. 2amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US jobs report for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 6 – US consumer credit for Aug. 3pmET.
Fri Oct 6 – Fed speakers: Bostic, Kaplan, Bullard
Sat Oct 7 – China FX reserves for Sept (Fri night/Sat morning)
Mon Oct 9 – China Caixin services PMI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 9 – German industrial production for Aug. 2amET.
Mon Oct 9 – earnings after the European close: LVMH.
Mon Oct 9 – Columbus Day holiday in the US (equities will be open while fixed income is closed).
Tues Oct 10 – German trade balance for Aug. 2amET.
Tues Oct 10 – analyst meetings: TECD, Santander, WDAY, WMT
Tues Oct 10 – PG shareholder meeting
Tues Oct 10 – earnings after the close: CUDA
Wed Oct 11 – US JOLTs report for Aug. 10amET.
Wed Oct 11 – Fed minutes from the Sept 20 meeting (2pmET).
Wed Oct 11 – analyst meetings: KR
Wed Oct 11 – earnings before the open: BLK, DAL, FAST, OZRK.
Thurs Oct 12 – Eurozone industrial production for Aug. 5amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – US PPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 12 – analyst meetings: BOX, HPQ, LSCC, WDC.
Thurs Oct 12 – earnings before the open: C, DPZ, JPM, LNN, Sky PLC, Tata Consultancy.
Thurs Oct 12 – earnings after the close: EXFO
Fri Oct 13 – China imports/exports for Sept (Thurs night/Fri morning)
Fri Oct 13 – US CPI for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US retail sales for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US Michigan Sentiment for Oct. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – US business inventories for Aug. 10amET.
Fri Oct 13 – analyst meetings: SAFM
Fri Oct 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, DRFG, FHN, FRC, JBHT, Man Group, PNC, WFC.
Mon Oct 16 – China CPI/PPI for Sept (Sun night/Mon morning)
Mon Oct 16 – Eurozone trade balance for Aug. 5amET.
Mon Oct 16 – earnings before the open: SCHW
Mon Oct 16 – earnings after the close: BRO, IEX, NFLX, Rio Tinto
Tues Oct 17 – Eurozone Sept auto registrations. 2amET.
Tues Oct 17 – German ZEW survey results for Oct. 5amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US import prices for Sept. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US industrial production for Sept. 9:15amET.
Tues Oct 17 – US NAHB housing index for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Oct 17 – earnings before the open: BMI, CMA, CSX, GS, GWW, HOG, JNJ, MS, Pearson, PLD, Remy Cointreau, UNH
Tues Oct 17 – earnings after the close: ADTN, BHP, CP, CREE, IBM, LRCX, NAVI.
Wed Oct 18 – US housing starts for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US building permits fro Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 18 – US Beige Book. 2pmET.
Wed Oct 18 – earnings before the open: ABT, Akzo Nobel, MTB, NTRS, USB
Wed Oct 18 – earnings after the close: AA, AXP, BHE, CCI, CCK, EBAY, LLNW, SLG, TCBI
Thurs Oct 19 – China Q3 GDP and Sept retail sales, IP, and FAI (Wed night/Thurs morning)
Tues Oct 24 – earnings after the close: AKAM, AMP, CMG, COF, DFS, ESRX, IRBT, T, TSS, TXN.
Wed Oct 25 – US durable goods for Sept. 8:30amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US FHFA home price index for Aug. 9amET.
Wed Oct 25 – US new home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Wed Oct 25 – earnings before the open: ALK, ALLY, ANTM, Antofagasta, AOS, BA, BAX, Dassault Systemes, DPS, FCX, FLIR, Fresnillo, HBAN, Heineken, IP, IR, KO, LEA, LH, Lloyds Banking Group, NDAQ, NSC, NYCB, Peugeot, TMO, TUP, V, WBA, WEC.
Wed Oct 25 – earnings after the close: ABX, ACGL, AFL, AMGN, CLGX, DLR, FFIV, FTI, KIM, LSTR, NOW, ORLY, PKG, PLXS, RJF, TSCO, UNM, VAR, XLNX.
Thurs Oct 26 – US wholesale inventories for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US advance goods trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – US pending home sales for Sept. 10amET.
Thurs Oct 26 – earnings before the open: Aixtron, ALLE, ALV, Anheuser Busch, APD, Bayer, BMY, BSX, BWA, CCMP, CELG, CHTR, CMCSA, CME, Deutsche Bank, ENTG, EQT, F, HLT, MMC, NEM, Nokia, ODFL, Santander, Schneider Electric, UNP, UPS, WM, XEL.
Thurs Oct 26 – earnings after the close: AIV, ATEN, CB, CDNS, EXPE, FLEX, FTNT, GILD, GOOG, HIG, INTC, LPLA, MSFT, NATI, PFG, SYK, VDSI, VRSN.
Fri Oct 27 – China Sept industrial profits (Thurs night/Fri morning).
Fri Oct 27 – US Q3 GDP, personal consumption, and core PCE for Q3. 8:30amET.
Fri Oct 27 – US Michigan Confidence numbers for Oct. 10amET.
Fri Oct 27 – earnings before the open: B, MRK, PSX, SC, TRU, Volkswagen, WY, XOM.
Mon Oct 30 – US personal income/spending and PCE for Sept. 8:30amET.
Mon Oct 30 – US Dallas Fed index for Oct. 10:30amET.
Mon Oct 30 – analyst meetings: CSX
Mon Oct 30 – earnings before the open: HSBC
Mon Oct 30 – earnings after the close: AVB, CGNX, RE, RTEC, VNO
Tues Oct 31 – US Employment Cost Index for Q3. 8:30amET.
Tues Oct 31 – US Case-Shiller home price index for Aug. 9amET.
Tues Oct 31 – US Chicago PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
Tues Oct 31 – US Conference Board Sentiment readings for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Oct 31 – earnings before the open: ADM, AET, Airbus, AMT, Barclays, BNP, CMI, ECL, GGP, K, MA, OSK, PFE, XYL.
Tues Oct 31 – earnings after the close: APC, CHRW, CXO, WFT, X
Wed Nov 1 – US ADP jobs report for Oct. 8:15amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US Markit Manufacturing PMI for Oct. 9:45amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US Manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US construction spending report for Sept. 10amET.
Wed Nov 1 – US auto sales for Oct.
Wed Nov 1 – FOMC meeting decision. 2pmET.
Wed Nov 1 – earnings before the open: AGN, APO, CLX, EL, GRMN, HFC, Novo Nordisk, ORBK, Standard Chartered, TAP, TRI.
Wed Nov 1 – earnings after the close: ALL, BHF, BXP, CAVM, CSGS, FB, LNC, MANT, MET, MUSA, OXY, PRU, QCOM, ULTI, XPO.
Thurs Nov 2 – US nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs for Q3. 8:30amET.
Thurs Nov 2 – earnings before the open: ADP, AN, BCE, CI, Credit Suisse, DISCA, H, ICE, Royal Dutch Shell, Sanofi, Swiss Re, WRK.
Thurs Nov 2 – earnings after the close: AAPL, AIG, CBS, CRUS, FLR, HLF, RMAX, SBUX, UNIT.
Fri Nov 3 – US jobs report for Oct. 8:30amET.
Fri Nov 3 – US trade balance for Sept. 8:30amET.
Fri Nov 3 – US factory orders and durable goods orders for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Nov 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Nov 7 – US JOLTs jobs report for Sept. 10amET.
Tues Nov 7 – US consumer credit for Sept. 3pmET.
Thurs Nov 9 – US wholesale trade sales/inventories for Sept. 10amET.
Fri Nov 10 – US Michigan Confidence preliminary numbers for Nov. 10amET.
Tues Nov 14 – US PPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US CPI for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Nov. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US retail sales for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 15 – US business inventories for Sept. 10amET.
Thurs Nov 16 – US import prices for Oct. 8:30amET.
Thurs Nov 16 – US industrial production for Oct. 9:15amET.
Thurs Nov 16 – US NAHB housing index for Nov. 10amET.
Fri Nov 17 – US housing starts and building permits for Oct. 8:30amET.
Mon Nov 20 – US Leading Index for Oct. 10amET.
Tues Nov 21 – US existing home sales for Oct. 10amET.
Wed Nov 22 – US durable goods for Oct. 8:30amET.
Wed Nov 22 – US final Michigan Confidence numbers for Nov. 10amET.
Wed Nov 22 – FOMC 11/1 meeting minutes. 2pmET.
Fri Nov 24 – US flash PMIs for Nov. 9:45amET.
J.P. Morgan Market Intelligence is a product of the Institutional Equities Sales and Trading desk of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC and the intellectual property thereof. It is not a product of the Research Department and is intended for distribution to institutional and professional customers only and is not intended for retail customer use. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or transmitted, in whole or in part, without J.P. Morgan’s consent. Any unauthorized use is strictly prohibited.
President Donald Trump rejected a fresh round of sanctions set to be imposed against Russia, The New York Times reported. The White House earlier contradicted the ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, who said there would be sanctions. (NY Times)
US and Britain warn of cybersecurity threat from Russia (NY Times)
Trump's administration is seeking to assemble an Arab force to replace the U.S. military contingent in Syria, according to The Wall Street Journal. The details emerged days after the U.S.-led strikes on sites associated with the country.
In an op-ed published in USA Today this morning, President Trump said the American people "are winning" and the U.S. economy is "back and roaring." He also said the new tax cut bill is lowering the size of Americans bills.
Today is Tax Day. How to deal if you still haven't filed (CNBC)
Trump's re-election campaign paid $93,000 to a law firm to fight back against Michael Wolff's White House tell-all book, "Fire and Fury." The payments were largely in compensation for taking on ex-White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. (CNBC)
Sean Hannity addressed the revelation that the unnamed client of Michael Cohen, Trump's longtime personal attorney, was in fact the Fox news host. Hannity said that Cohen has never represented him "in any matter." (CNBC)
Stormy Daniels rips Cohen after court hearing deals blow to president and his fixer (CNBC)
Sen. John McCain, who is battling brain cancer, is in stable conditionafter undergoing surgery for an intestinal infection related to diverticulitis. Cindy McCain, McCain's wife, said that he was "doing well after his surgery." (USA Today)
North and South Korea are reportedly in talks to announce a permanent end to the officially declared military conflict between the two countries. A successful summit between the Koreas later this month could help pave the way for a meeting between Kim and Trump. (Munhwa Ilbo)
China's economy grew 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018, topping the consensus estimate of 6.7 percent year-over-year growth for the quarter. The data marks the third-straight quarter of 6.8 percent growth for the world's second-largest economy. (CNBC)
Tesla (TSLA) temporarily suspended production of its Model 3 in what the automaker is calling a planned production pause. The suspension is expected to last four to five days. (BuzzFeed News)
CNBC has learned Amazon (AMZN) Business, which sells bulk items to business customers, has shelved its plan to sell and distribute pharmaceutical products after considering it last year. Instead, it is focused on selling less sensitive medical supplies.
Walmart (WMT) is close to unveiling an entirely redesigned website as it battles Amazon (AMZN) for shoppers' dollars online. The new design will be much more personalized and is expected to create a "fashion destination" online. (CNBC)
Additionally, the Supreme Court will consider whether to let states force out-of-state online retailers to collect sales taxes on purchases. South Dakota, appealing a lower court decision, is being supported by Trump's administration. (Reuters)
Facebook's product management director wrote a blog post explaining when the social network and its partners collect your personal information and when it's shared. The company reiterated that it's not selling this information. (CNBC)
UnitedHealth – The health insurer reported adjusted quarterly profit of $3.04 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.89 a share. Revenue also beat forecasts. Quarterly results were helped by strength across all the company's businesses, as well as a lower percentage of premiums paid out for medical benefits. UnitedHealth also raised its full-year earnings outlook.
Johnson & Johnson – J&J came in 4 cents a share above estimates, with adjusted quarterly profit of $2.06 per share. Revenue also exceeded forecasts, helped by a nearly 20 percent increase in international sales.
Goldman Sachs – Goldman reported quarterly profit of $6.95 per share, easily beating the consensus estimate of $4.48 a share. Revenue was well above forecasts, and the investment bank also raised its quarterly dividend.
Netflix – Netflix reported in-line earnings of 64 cents per share for its latest quarter, with the video streaming service's revenue very slightly above estimates. The stock, however, is getting a boost on stronger-than-expected current quarter guidance, and subscriber additions for the prior quarter that exceeded Street forecasts.
Roku — Steven Cohen's Point72 Asset Management has taken a 5.1 percent passive stake in the maker of video streaming devices. Roku also announced the addition of ESPN's subscription service ESPN+ to the lineup of channels available on Roku devices.
Walt Disney – Disney was upgraded to "hold" from "sell" at Pivotal Research, saying Disney appears best-positioned among video-centric media companies although it continues to see weak fundamentals overall for the industry.
Coca-Cola, PepsiCo – Goldman Sachs swapped ratings for the two beverage giants, upgrading Coca-Cola to "neutral" from "sell" and doing the opposite for PepsiCo. Goldman based its move on an improving organic growth profile for Coke, as opposed to a softer outlook that it foresees for PepsiCo.
Celanese – Celanese reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter as well as giving strong current quarter guidance. The maker of technology and specialty materials was helped in part by stronger prices for acid and other materials, especially in the China market.
General Motors – GM's financially strapped Korea unit may get financial help from state-run lender Korea Development Bank, according to the bank's chairman.
Sanofi – Sanofi is in talks to sell its generic drugs unit to private equity firm Advent International for $2.4 billion. The French drugmaker said it expects the sale to be completed before the end of the year.
Tesla – Tesla temporarily suspended production of its Model 3 in what the automaker is calling a planned production pause. The suspension is expected to last four to five days.
Facebook – Facebook must face a class action lawsuit surrounding its use of facial recognition technology on photos, according to a US District Court judge in San Francisco. Separately, asset management firm's biggest stock fund – the Global Allocation Fund – bought more Facebook shares last month after privacy issues hit the stock's price, according to Reuters.
Wynn Resorts – The hotel and casino operator announced that former CEO Steve Wynn and ex-wife Elaine Wynn have settled a long-running legal dispute. The Wall Street Journal reports that Steve Wynn paid Elaine Wynn an undisclosed amount of money, and both sides said they were pleased that the litigation was behind them.
USG — Germany's Gebr. Knauf sent a letter to the USG board, saying it would go to court if the building materials maker did not respond to its request for information. Knauf, which owns 10.5 percent of USG, wants to buy USG for $5.9 billion – a bid that USG is resisting.
Twitter – Twitter was upgraded to "equal-weight" from "underweight" at Morgan Stanley, which points to several positive factors including improving user growth.
Dollar General – JPMorgan Chase upgraded the discount retailer's stock to "overweight" from "neutral," noting an ongoing increase in same-store sales and increasing square footage in a market that the firm feels is a decade away from saturation.
Good morning traders of the stocks sub! Welcome to Tuesday and the first trading day of May! Here are your pre-market stock movers & news this morning-
President Donald Trump postponed the deadline on steel and aluminum tariffs for some allies, including the European Union, for 30 days to allow further discussions. The tariffs are already in effect against China, Japan, Russia and others. (CNBC)
Trump pushes back tariff exemptions but Europe is still not happy(CNBC)
The New York Times obtained a list of questions special counsel Robert Mueller has for Trump as part of his ongoing investigation into the 2016 presidential election. * The series of open-ended questions include the president's firing of former FBI director James Comey.
Comey: Trump should submit to Mueller interview (Axios)
GOP Senator Marco Rubio told the Economist magazine there is "no evidence whatsoever" the new tax law significantly helped U.S. workers. Rubio, who voted for the proposal, said instead corporations bought back shares and gave out bonuses.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in asked the United Nations to help verify North Korea's planned shutdown of its nuclear test site. The North, several days before the historic summit between Moon and Kim Jong Un, had promised to dismantle its site. (Reuters)
Mnuchin: 'No question' Trump sanctions brought North Korea to negotiating table (CNBC)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed a cache of files he claimed were obtained from Iran and proved the country ran a secret program to build nuclear weapons. Trump must decide in two weeks whether to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal.
Porn star Stormy Daniels filed a new lawsuit against Trump, accusing him of defaming her in a tweet that said she was pulling a "con job" on the news media. Daniels already was suing Trump seeking to void a nondisclosure agreement she signed. (CNBC)
Actress Ashley Judd sued disgraced Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein, alleging he tried to destroy her acting career after she refused his sexual advances. The lawsuit said Weinstein's actions prevented her from working in an Oscar-winning film franchise. (USA Today)
The co-founder of WhatsApp, the messaging service Facebook (FB) bought for $19 billion in 2014, is leaving the company at a time when Facebook reels from revelations of Russian election manipulation, fake news, and data leaks. (CNBC)
Facebook privacy changes leave developers steaming ahead of today's conference (NY Times) T* witter (TWTR) will bring original shows from Comcast's (CMCSA) NBCUniversal, Disney (DIS) and Viacom (VIA), among others, to its platform. The company also announced it's launching a division to help online influencers make scripted series. (CNBC)
Medicare chief Seema Verma exclusively told CNBC it's time that health care catches up with other industries when it comes to providing consumers greater transparency about prices. The agency proposed earlier this week that hospitals post their prices online.
Sanofi (SNY) and Regeneron (REGN) have agreed to lower the price of their cholesterol medicine in exchange for easier access for patients covered by pharmacy benefit manager Express Scripts (ESRX), the first of a number of deals the drugmakers hope to strike to increase use of their drug. (CNBC)
Boeing (BA) will buy aircraft parts maker KLX (KLX) for about $3.2 billion in cash or $63 per share. KLX had said it would review strategic options in December. KLX shares were losing about 10 percent in the premarket, though still trading above the offer price. (Reuters)
Merck – The drugmaker beat estimates by 5 cents a share, with adjusted first-quarter profit of $1.05 per share. Revenue was very slightly below forecasts. Merck's results were powered by strong growth in sales of its cancer drug Keytruda, an it also raised its earnings forecast for the year.
Pfizer – Pfizer reported adjusted quarterly profit of 77 cents per share, beating estimates by 3 cents a share. Revenue was slightly below forecasts, but Pfizer's bottom line benefited from stronger sales of breast cancer drug Ibrance.
Apple – DA Davidson initiated coverage on Apple with a "buy" rating, saying although the company faces challenges, its huge free cash flow allows it both to return increasing amounts of money to shareholders and make strategic acquisitions.
Under Armour – The athletic apparel maker reported a break-even quarter on an adjusted basis, compared to analyst forecasts of a 5 cents per share loss. Revenue beat forecasts, helped by stronger international sales.
Archer-Daniels Midland – The grain processor beat estimates by 18 cents a share, with adjusted quarterly profit of 68 cents per share. Revenue also topped forecasts. The company said market conditions have improved for many of its businesses, and that it is even more confident about 2018 full year performance.
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Sanofi – The drug companies announced they would cut the price of the cholesterol drug Praluent for Express Scripts customers, in exchange for greater patient access.
Facebook – Wedbush added Facebook to its "Best Ideas" list, saying the company would weather the controversy surrounding the Cambridge Analytica data breach.
WellCare Health Plans – The health insurer reported adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.47 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $2.02 a share. Revenue was essentially in line. WellCare raised its full-year forecast, based on strong performance across all its business lines.
Akamai Technologies – Akamai reported adjusted quarterly profit of 79 cents per share, 9 cents a share above estimates. Revenue also beat forecasts. The provider of internet content delivery technology saw its results boosted by its push into cloud security.
Texas Roadhouse – Texas Roadhouse matched forecasts with quarterly profit of 76 cents per share, with its revenue slightly above estimates. Comparable-restaurant sales were higher by 4.9 percent at company-owned restaurants and 3.9 percent at franchised locations.
Cognex – Cognex came in 4 cents a share above Street forecasts, with adjusted quarterly profit of 24 cents per share. The maker of machine vision technology saw revenue miss forecasts and it also gave weaker-than-expected full-year guidance.
Tenet Healthcare – Tenet reported an unexpected quarterly profit, with revenue also beating forecasts. The hospital operator also issued strong full-year guidance as it benefited from lower costs and a jump in patient visits.
KLX – Boeing will buy the aircraft parts maker for about $3.2 billion in cash, or $63 per share. KLX had said it would review strategic options in December, and The Wall Street Journal had reported last week that a deal was near.
Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts – The casino operators are on watch as gambling revenue in the Chinese territory of Macau rose a better-than-expected 28 percent in April. Gaming revenue in Macau has now risen for 21 consecutive months.
Intel – The chipmaker will receive $380 million from the Israeli government to expand its manufacturing operations in that country, according to Israeli financial newspaper Calcalist.
Citrix Systems – Citrix was added to the "Conviction Buy" list at Goldman Sachs, which notes stronger pricing in the software company's CSS support services offering.
US Foods – US Foods was downgraded to "sector perform" from "outperform" at RBC Capital, which points to overall food distribution industry stagnation.
NutriSystem – NutriSystem earned 9 cents per share for its latest quarter, beating forecasts by 3 cents a share. The diet plan provider also saw revenue come in above estimates. NutriSystem also raised its full-year forecast.
Roku – KeyBanc rates the maker of streaming video devices a "buy" in new coverage, saying it provides a unique platform in the growing streaming video market.
President Donald Trump rejected a fresh round of sanctions set to be imposed against Russia, The New York Times reported. The White House earlier contradicted the ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, who said there would be sanctions. (NY Times)
US and Britain warn of cybersecurity threat from Russia (NY Times)
Trump's administration is seeking to assemble an Arab force to replace the U.S. military contingent in Syria, according to The Wall Street Journal. The details emerged days after the U.S.-led strikes on sites associated with the country.
In an op-ed published in USA Today this morning, President Trump said the American people "are winning" and the U.S. economy is "back and roaring." He also said the new tax cut bill is lowering the size of Americans bills.
Today is Tax Day. How to deal if you still haven't filed (CNBC)
Trump's re-election campaign paid $93,000 to a law firm to fight back against Michael Wolff's White House tell-all book, "Fire and Fury." The payments were largely in compensation for taking on ex-White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. (CNBC)
Sean Hannity addressed the revelation that the unnamed client of Michael Cohen, Trump's longtime personal attorney, was in fact the Fox news host. Hannity said that Cohen has never represented him "in any matter." (CNBC)
Stormy Daniels rips Cohen after court hearing deals blow to president and his fixer (CNBC)
Sen. John McCain, who is battling brain cancer, is in stable conditionafter undergoing surgery for an intestinal infection related to diverticulitis. Cindy McCain, McCain's wife, said that he was "doing well after his surgery." (USA Today)
North and South Korea are reportedly in talks to announce a permanent end to the officially declared military conflict between the two countries. A successful summit between the Koreas later this month could help pave the way for a meeting between Kim and Trump. (Munhwa Ilbo)
China's economy grew 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018, topping the consensus estimate of 6.7 percent year-over-year growth for the quarter. The data marks the third-straight quarter of 6.8 percent growth for the world's second-largest economy. (CNBC)
Tesla (TSLA) temporarily suspended production of its Model 3 in what the automaker is calling a planned production pause. The suspension is expected to last four to five days. (BuzzFeed News)
CNBC has learned Amazon (AMZN) Business, which sells bulk items to business customers, has shelved its plan to sell and distribute pharmaceutical products after considering it last year. Instead, it is focused on selling less sensitive medical supplies.
Walmart (WMT) is close to unveiling an entirely redesigned website as it battles Amazon (AMZN) for shoppers' dollars online. The new design will be much more personalized and is expected to create a "fashion destination" online. (CNBC)
Additionally, the Supreme Court will consider whether to let states force out-of-state online retailers to collect sales taxes on purchases. South Dakota, appealing a lower court decision, is being supported by Trump's administration. (Reuters)
Facebook's product management director wrote a blog post explaining when the social network and its partners collect your personal information and when it's shared. The company reiterated that it's not selling this information. (CNBC)
UnitedHealth – The health insurer reported adjusted quarterly profit of $3.04 per share, compared to a consensus estimate of $2.89 a share. Revenue also beat forecasts. Quarterly results were helped by strength across all the company's businesses, as well as a lower percentage of premiums paid out for medical benefits. UnitedHealth also raised its full-year earnings outlook.
Johnson & Johnson – J&J came in 4 cents a share above estimates, with adjusted quarterly profit of $2.06 per share. Revenue also exceeded forecasts, helped by a nearly 20 percent increase in international sales.
Goldman Sachs – Goldman reported quarterly profit of $6.95 per share, easily beating the consensus estimate of $4.48 a share. Revenue was well above forecasts, and the investment bank also raised its quarterly dividend.
Netflix – Netflix reported in-line earnings of 64 cents per share for its latest quarter, with the video streaming service's revenue very slightly above estimates. The stock, however, is getting a boost on stronger-than-expected current quarter guidance, and subscriber additions for the prior quarter that exceeded Street forecasts.
Roku — Steven Cohen's Point72 Asset Management has taken a 5.1 percent passive stake in the maker of video streaming devices. Roku also announced the addition of ESPN's subscription service ESPN+ to the lineup of channels available on Roku devices.
Walt Disney – Disney was upgraded to "hold" from "sell" at Pivotal Research, saying Disney appears best-positioned among video-centric media companies although it continues to see weak fundamentals overall for the industry.
Coca-Cola, PepsiCo – Goldman Sachs swapped ratings for the two beverage giants, upgrading Coca-Cola to "neutral" from "sell" and doing the opposite for PepsiCo. Goldman based its move on an improving organic growth profile for Coke, as opposed to a softer outlook that it foresees for PepsiCo.
Celanese – Celanese reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter as well as giving strong current quarter guidance. The maker of technology and specialty materials was helped in part by stronger prices for acid and other materials, especially in the China market.
General Motors – GM's financially strapped Korea unit may get financial help from state-run lender Korea Development Bank, according to the bank's chairman.
Sanofi – Sanofi is in talks to sell its generic drugs unit to private equity firm Advent International for $2.4 billion. The French drugmaker said it expects the sale to be completed before the end of the year.
Tesla – Tesla temporarily suspended production of its Model 3 in what the automaker is calling a planned production pause. The suspension is expected to last four to five days.
Facebook – Facebook must face a class action lawsuit surrounding its use of facial recognition technology on photos, according to a US District Court judge in San Francisco. Separately, asset management firm's biggest stock fund – the Global Allocation Fund – bought more Facebook shares last month after privacy issues hit the stock's price, according to Reuters.
Wynn Resorts – The hotel and casino operator announced that former CEO Steve Wynn and ex-wife Elaine Wynn have settled a long-running legal dispute. The Wall Street Journal reports that Steve Wynn paid Elaine Wynn an undisclosed amount of money, and both sides said they were pleased that the litigation was behind them.
USG — Germany's Gebr. Knauf sent a letter to the USG board, saying it would go to court if the building materials maker did not respond to its request for information. Knauf, which owns 10.5 percent of USG, wants to buy USG for $5.9 billion – a bid that USG is resisting.
Twitter – Twitter was upgraded to "equal-weight" from "underweight" at Morgan Stanley, which points to several positive factors including improving user growth.
Dollar General – JPMorgan Chase upgraded the discount retailer's stock to "overweight" from "neutral," noting an ongoing increase in same-store sales and increasing square footage in a market that the firm feels is a decade away from saturation.
bigbear0083 has no positions in any stocks mentioned. Reddit, moderators, and the author do not advise making investment decisions based on discussion in these posts. Analysis is not subject to validation and users take action at their own risk. bigbear0083 is an admin at the financial forums Stockaholics.net where this content was originally posted.
DISCUSS!
What is on everyone's radar for today's trading day ahead here at StockMarket?
I hope you all have an excellent trading day ahead today on this Tuesday, April 17th, 2018! :)
J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Fri 1-13-17
Full version: [DELETED PRIOR TO MARKET CLOSE] J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Fri 1.13.17 Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors Only PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT
Morning Levels
• US futures are up 3-4 points • Asia: Japan Nikkei +0.80%, Japan TOPIX +0.62%, China -0.21%, Hong Kong +0.47%, KOSPI - 0.50%, Taiwan -0.33%, Australia -0.79% • EuroStoxx 50 +0.78%, FTSE +0.37%, DAX +0.60%, CAC +0.85%, Italy +1.18%, Spain +0.76% • USD (DXY) down 0.14%, EUR up 0.32%, GBP up 0.49%, JPY up 0.03%, CNY Onshore down 0.07%, CNH Offshore up 0.14%, AUD up 0.07% • VIX down 0.87% to 11.44 • Gold up 0.14% to $1,197.11 • Silver down 0.09% to $16.81 • Copper down 0.75% to $265.15 • WTI Crude down 1.04% to $52.46 • Brent Crude down 1.21% to $55.33 • Natural Gas down 0.21% to $3.38 • Corn down 0.28% to $3.57/bu • Wheat unch at $426.25 • Treasuries 2yr yields are down ~0.9bps at 1.165%, 10yr yields are down ~1.6bps at 2.347% and 30yr yields are down ~1.1bps at 2.949% • Japan 10yr yields 0.039%, up ~0.9bps on the day • France 10yr yields 0.776%, up ~0.5bps on the day • Italy 10yr yields 1.898%, up ~0.8bps on the day • Spain 10yr yields 1.405%, up ~0.7bps on the day • Germany 10yr yields 0.309%, up ~0.2bps on the day
Trading Update
• Market update – once again, there isn’t much to talk about overnight. China’s trade numbers were the big macro headline but those figures are hardly changing the broader macro narrative (exports fell slightly short while imports were inline). Otherwise the wires were largely void of major headlines. Asia was mixed, Eurozone stocks are rallying nicely (although are on track to end the week lower), and US futures are up a few points. • Calendar - for Friday investors will be watching US Dec PPI/retail sales (8:30amET), US Michigan confidence for Jan (10amET), one Fed speaker (Harker), and earnings (BAC, BLK, FHN, FRC, JPM, PNC, and WFC pre-open). • Eurozone stocks – the main Eurozone indices are seeing solid gains (up ~60-70bp). Most major sub-groups are trading higher but tech, fin services, banks, media, and healthcare are outperforming. Fiat Chrysler is rebounding as investors view its emissions scandal as less severe than the one that hit VW although Renault is weak as Paris prosecutors open a probe into its emissions. Technicolor is the weakest stock in the SXXP after cutting its outlook. • FX – the DXY is in the red again so far Fri morning (the DXY is tracking for a ~1% dip this week). The USD is weak vs. the GBP and EUR and is flattish against the JPY. Investors are looking forward to the Brexit speech on Tues from PM May. • Asia – the major Asian bourses were mixed: Japan (TPX +0.62%, NKY +0.8%), HK (Hang Seng +0.47%, HSCEI +0.66%), mainland China (SHCOMP -0.21%, Shenzhen -1.55%), Korea (KOSPI - 0.5%), Australia (ASX 200 -0.79%), and India (flattish for the major indices). China’s trade numbers were the big headline out of Asia (exports were a touch light while imports were inline). The Bank of Korea decision was largely consistent w/expectations. In India, INFY and TCS are both trading lower despite OK earnings from both. Taiwan didn’t trade very badly despite the underwhelming TSMC guidance. • Japan – it was an extremely quiet and relatively uneventful trading session. Focus has begun to turn to earnings with Retail +2.3% bouncing from recent weakness following Fast Retailing +1.1% and Seven&i +8.6% earnings beat. Downside was led by Nintendo -5.8%, trading close to 10% of total TPX turnover, as its 'Switch' presentation failed to impress - especially with their $299.99 pricing (street was modeling more around $250~$275). Otherwise, dispersion across sectors was low and larger moves were driven more by microheadlines: Takata traded at limit high (+16.47%) after headlines saying the co and the US Justice Department may announce a settlement as soon as Fri over air bags, SMM -4.7% got hit after Nickel's weakness overnight, while Screen -4.0% traded lower on TSMC's weakerthan- expected guidance for 1H '17. • Hong Kong - sector wise Coal outperformed +3.75% together with Chinese OEMs +2.8% while Chinese Railways were down 0.4%. In the Chinese property sector, Vanke was well bid +5.7% after China Resources Holdings has agreed to sell 15.3% of total shs out to Shenzhen Metro Group at 37.2b yuan. In the Auto sector, Great Wall Motor spiked 2.7% after announcing a positive profit alert; the rest of the sector traded higher. Despite a pullback of the commodity complex, Steel +3% and Coal pushed higher driven mainly by further NDRCdriven expectations of SOE reform/consolidation, China Shenhua +4.1% Angang Steel +2.5%. The bounce in oil prices triggered a rally in Energy names, Sinopec putting on a +3.57%, Petrochina +2.6%. • South Korea – the KOSPI ended off 0.5%. Samsung Electronics slumped ~3.45% following tech weakness in the US on Thurs (note that Samsung did a lot worse than TSMC). Hynix finished down ~0.59% (JPMorgan has a Hynix note this morning and recommends booking profits instead of chasing the rally). • Taiwan – the TAIEX ended off 0.33%. TSMC fell 1.63% after its downbeat guidance (although the local TSM did a lot better than the US ADR on Thurs which fell ~3%). The rest of tech didn’t trade too badly despite TSM (MediaTek -0.92%, Hon Hai -0.12%, etc). On the upside, outperformers included Advantech +1.5%, Quanta +0.79%, Pegatron +0.96%, Innolux +1.17%, and AUO +1.16%. • US equity macro update - the multi-month rally has been underpinned by two main developments: 1) improved nominal growth (which predated the election by a few months and is largely politically agnostic for the near-term) and 2) GOD EMPEROR Trump enthusiasm. One of these factors remains in place (growth) while the other is increasingly dubious (the political optimism – see below). However, the market isn’t anticipating instant action out of Washington and in fact the ’17 numbers (~$127-128) don’t really require any political/policy changes (the problem is more w/the 2018 numbers where the tentative ~$145 EPS forecast needs some assistance from Washington). Therefore investors may give the benefit of the doubt to GOD EMPEROR Trump and Congressional Republicans until at least the end of the summer. This faith though is finite and will likely wind up being disappointed as investors appreciate the insurmountable complexity and tradeoffs of tax reform and realize that no government, Republican or Democrat, can provide much added impetus to a full-employment economy facing the twin structural headwinds of tepid labor supply and productivity growth.
Top Headlines for Friday
• China Dec trade numbers; slight export miss and inline imports – exports came in -6.1% (vs. the St -4% and JPM -3.3%) while imports rose 3.1% (vs. the St +3% and JPM +3.4%). Takeaways from JPMorgan’s Grace Ng - While December export growth, in over-year-ago US$ terms, came in below expectations, in sequential terms, exports still rose 1.9%m/m sa, adding to the notable gain at 3.3% m/m sa in November. Besides, imports came in line with expectations, up 2.1% m/m sa in December, following the surge at 7.8% m/m sa in November. Commodity imports came in rather mixed in December, although that followed the notable broad-based gain in November. Looking ahead, the expected modest improvement in global growth going into 2017, along with CNY’s trade-weighted adjustment over the past year, would likely be moderately supportive for China’s external trade, although uncertainty regarding potential US-China trade tensions poses notable risks. http://bit.ly/2imQ8xz • China vs. US – a Chinese newspaper, the Global Times, said blocking Chinese access to its islands in the South China Sea, an idea endorsed by Rex Tillerson during his confirmation hearing, would require the US to “wage war”; "Tillerson had better bone up on nuclear power strategies if he wants to force a big nuclear power to withdraw from its own territories” – Reuters http://reut.rs/2jDzLgS • China currency bears remain despite recent CNY strengthening – Reuters notes that the PBOC may have tempered near-term cautiousness and given pause to short-term traders but sentiment around the yuan is still very gloomy. http://reut.rs/2iri3zz • OPEC unlikely to deliver fully on cut pledge – Reuters notes that some cheating is inevitable and OPEC apparently would be happy if compliance stays within a 50-80% band; OPEC sources say compliance “is never 100%” and the cartel would be content so long as the overall rate is north of 50% – Reuters http://reut.rs/2j7gPs0 • Yellen spoke Thurs night although her remarks weren’t very incremental; Yellen said the US economy doesn’t face any serious short-term obstacles. “Unemployment has now reached a low level, the labor market is generally strong and wage growth is beginning to pick up,” Yellen said Thursday in a meeting with educators. “Inflation has moved up from a very low level, and it’s a little bit under our 2 percent objective, but it’s pretty close.” Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/2in61nE • Fed unity – the WSJ notes how Fed officials, including hawks and doves, are expressing remarkable unanimity in their policy outlooks. A slew of Fed officials spoke over the last few days and most think the FOMC will hike rates 2-4 times this year (most appear comfortable w/the current three hike outlook expressed by the median 2017 dot). WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2jeH3Lk • Monetary vs. fiscal policy - the Fed continues to clearly warn Congress/GOD EMPEROR Trump that any material fiscal stimulus would likely result in a faster withdrawal of accommodation (“Evans Thurs morning became the latest in a series of Fed policymakers to quietly warn that this may not be the best moment to launch a major fiscal plan or throw too much stimulus into the economy” http://reut.rs/2j4IZUl). • US fiscal outlook weakens – the US had a deficit of $580B/3.1% of GDP in C16, up from 2.6% in C15. The 2016 figure follows 6 years of shrinking deficits and the numbers are set to worsen in the years ahead. WSJ http://on.wsj.com/2jcMomt • Tax reform/border taxes - Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) on Thursday defended the House GOP border tax proposal and called it "a little offensive" that some U.S. companies are criticizing it. "This is not controversial, and quite frankly, it's a little offensive that some of the major American companies that are importers who do business worldwide are even raising concerns of this plan, because I don't see them going to Germany or Mexico or China to raise these concerns” – The Hill http://bit.ly/2jLoQ9a • Border taxes - Larry Kudlow speaking on CNBC (at ~1:15pmET Thurs afternoon) is vehemently against the idea of border taxes and worries that this issue could doom the entire tax reform effort given how controversial it is. Kudlow at one point was being considered for an economic job in the GOD EMPEROR Trump team (it isn’t clear where that consideration stands now). GOD EMPEROR Trump hasn’t explicitly addressed the Ryan border tax blueprint. • Paul Ryan conducted a town hall on CNN Thurs night although there weren’t many materially incremental headlines out of the event. Ryan reiterated a desire to pass ACA replace legislation at the same as the repeal bills are approved. Ryan said Republicans are moving "as quickly as they can" to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, but said he doesn't yet have a date, and it will take "a little bit of time" to do so (CNN http://cnn.it/2in0HR5). • Healthcare - the NYT details how GOD EMPEROR Trump’s healthcare promises will be difficult to achieve (http://nyti.ms/2jLkQFK) while the WSJ discusses the bipartisan healthcare problem: “the sick are expensive and someone has to pay” (http://on.wsj.com/2j7eIUU). The head of the conservative House Freedom Caucus predicted Thursday that the GOP's ObamaCare replacement plan is “likely to fail” in the Senate (The Hill http://bit.ly/2jqElzM). • GOD EMPEROR Trump’s team calls on Republicans to make childcare more affordable – GOD EMPEROR Trump aids are instructing Congressional Republicans to incorporate measures into upcoming tax reform legislation to make childcare more affordable. Proposals would allow parents to deduct certain child care costs. Politico http://politi.co/2irsanV • Don’t Let the Dollar Inhibit Growth. A soaring currency could slow exports, fueling populist anger. Time for another Plaza Accord? WSJ editorial. http://on.wsj.com/2iOJGjY • Int’l company-specific news update from Fri morning. The Infosys (out Thurs night US/preopen India) and Tata Consultancy (out after the India close Thurs) earnings were decent but both stocks are getting hit in India trading Fri morning. In Europe Fiat Chrysler is rebounding as investors view its emissions scandal as less severe than the one that hit VW although Renault is weak as Paris prosecutors open a probe into its emissions. Technicolor is the weakest stock in the SXXP after cutting its outlook. • US company-specific news update from Thurs night. It was another pretty uneventful evening. DOV provided F17 guidance – the top line was fine but the EPS guide was a bit below the St. Pandora (P) published an upside preannouncement for CQ4 (the co also announced restructuring actions). Finally, RYI said that it anticipates seasonally lower revenue for the fourth quarter of 2016 compared to the third quarter of 2016 due to fewer shipping days.
Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Jan 16
• Bottom Line – the big focus during the week of 1/16 will be on earnings, US eco data (US CPI for Dec Wed morning 1/18), the ECB decision (Thurs 1/19 – this should be a non-event), China eco data (Dec IP/retail sales and Q4 GDP all out Thurs night/Fri morning), and two Yellen speeches (she will take part in a discussion Wed 1/18 at 3pmET and speaks at Stanford Thurs 1/19 at 8pmET). Also GOD EMPEROR Trump’s inauguration is Friday. Keep in mind Mon 1/16 is a holiday in the US (MLK Day). • Mon 1/16 – US markets are closed for MLK Day. BHP is scheduled to give its Q4 production update Mon night. • Tues 1/17 – this day should be pretty quiet w/no major eco numbers and only a few earnings (CMA, MS, and UNH pre-open and ADTN and CSX after the close). In addition, two Fed officials will be speaking (Dudley, Williams), Chinese President Xi gives a keynote at the Davos conf., and UK PM May is expected to give a “major” speech on Brexit. • Wed 1/18 – the big focus on Wed will be the US CPI for Dec at 8:30amET w/investors watching inflation numbers closely. Also Yellen will participate in a discussion (3pmET) and a bunch of earnings are due (AMTD, ASML, Burberry, C, FAST, GS, NTRS, SCHW, and USB pre-open and NFLX, PLXS, PTC, and SLM after the close). • Thurs 1/19 – the ECB decision (7:45amET statement, 8:30amET press conf.) should be a non-event. The other events include Yellen’s speech at Stanford (8pmET) and earnings (BBT, BK, CHKP, KEY, PPG, UNP, and WBS pre-open and AXP, IBM, and SWKS after the close). • Fri 1/20 – this day will be dominated by China’s eco data (Dec IP/retail sales and Q4 GDP out Thurs night/Fri morning), earnings (CFG, COL, GE, KSU, RF, SLB, STI, and SYF pre-open), and two Fed speakers (Harker and Williams). GOD EMPEROR Trump’s inauguration (he becomes president at 12pmET) shouldn’t be all that important (although many are fearful of investors booking profits on the “GOD EMPEROR Trump Trade” following this event).
Catalysts for 2017 – big events to watch for 2017 (preliminary list – additional events likely to be
added) • US bank earnings season kicks off Fri 1/13 (BAC, BLK, FHN, FRC, JPM, PNC, and WFC all report Fri morning). • Earnings - week of Mon 1/16 is the first big one of the CQ4 earnings season. • World Economic Forum 1/17-20 in Davos. • ECB – first ECB decision of the year will occur on Jan 19. • China eco data - Dec IP/retail sales/FAI and Q4 GDP – Fri morning 1/20. • GOD EMPEROR Trump inauguration Fri 1/20. • Oil – OPEC and non-OPEC committee Jan 21-22 Vienna meeting (this will be the first meeting to evaluate whether all the parties are adhering to the recent production agreement). • Italy – Italian Constitutional Court to hold hearing on legitimacy of Italian electoral law on Jan 24. • Japan – there is speculation Abe could call elections in the Jan timeframe. • US banks – the Fed will prob. publish the ’17 CCAstress test criteria around the end of Jan (the criteria was released Jan 28, 2016 for the last testing cycle). • US GDP – the Q4 GDP number will be published Fri 1/27. • China New Year holiday. Mainland markets closed Fri 1/27-Thurs 2/2. • Fed – first Fed decision of the year will occur on Feb 1. • Netherlands will have national elections Mar 15. • Fed meeting – first press conf./dot plot decision of the year is Mar 15. • G20 Fin Min/central bank governors meeting Mar 17-18 in Germany. • China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) usually take place in mid-Mar; the gov’t will formally publish its 2017 economic objectives at this event. • US debt ceiling - the debt limit has been suspended since late ’15 but is due to be reinstated on Mar 16, 2017. • EU Leaders Summit Mar 25 – this could be the forum at which the UK formally triggers Article 50. • WFC’s “living will” – WFC will resubmit its living will in the Mar timeframe. Normally this wouldn’t be a major event but if WFC’s living will is deemed inadequate again the Fed could raise the company’s capital requirements. • France first-round presidential election Apr 23 (run-off is May 7). • US Treasury publishes semi-annual currency report around Apr timeframe (investors will watch China’s designation closely and if it gets labeled a currency manipulator). • US gov’t funding – current spending legislation will keep the gov’t funding until Apr 28 • NATO – Montenegro is expected to become a NATO member in the spring of 2017. • G7 Leaders Summit May 26-27 in Italy. • Italy – new elections are likely in the June timeframe. • Russia – European sanctions against Russia are due to expire in June. Given the likely outcome of the French election, they will prob. not be extended (http://on.wsj.com/2iHEYUB). • China/MSCI - MSCI will announce the result of the China A shares inclusion proposal as part of the 2017 Market Classification Review in June 2017. • G20 Leaders Summit Jul 7-8 2017 in Germany. • German elections – the next German elections will be held between Aug and Oct 2017. • Chinese politics – China’s 19th National Congress will take place in the fall of 2017 and will set the country’s political path for the next five years.
Full catalyst list
• Fri Jan 13 – China imports/exports for Dec (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Jan 13 – US PPI for Dec. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 13 – US retail sales for Dec. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 13 – Michigan Confidence numbers for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Jan 13 – Fed speakers: Harker • Fri Jan 13 – earnings before the open: BAC, BLK, FHN, FRC, INFY, JPM, PNC, WFC • Fri Jan 13 - JPMorgan Healthcare Conf. Jan 9-13. San Francisco. • Mon Jan 16 – earnings out Mon night: Rio Tinto • Mon Jan 16 – ECB’s Praet speaks • Mon Jan 16 – BOE’s Carney speaks • Mon Jan 16 – US markets closed for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day • Tues Jan 17 – Fed speakers: Dudley, Williams • Tues Jan 17 – European trading updates: Alstom, Casino, Provident Financial, Renault • Tues Jan 17 – WTR earnings guidance conf. call. • Tues Jan 17 – earnings before the open: CMA, EDU, INFO, MS, SNV, UNH • Tues Jan 17 – earnings after the close: ADTN, CSX • Wed Jan 18 – US CPI for Dec. 8:30amET. • Wed Jan 18 – US IP for Dec. 9:15amET. • Wed Jan 18 – Bank of Canada rate decision • Wed Jan 18 – Fed speakers: Kashkari, Yellen • Wed Jan 18 – analyst meetings: ASNA • Wed Jan 18 – European trading updates: Burberry, Experian • Wed Jan 18 – earnings before the open: AMTD, ASML, C, FAST, GS, NTRS, SCHW, USB • Wed Jan 18 – earnings after the close: CLC, NFLX, PLXS, PTC, SLM • Thurs Jan 19 – ECB decision. 7:45amET statement, 8:30amET press conf. • Thurs Jan 19 – US housing starts and building permits for Dec. 8:30amET. • Thurs Jan 19 – Fed speakers: Yellen • Thurs Jan 19 – analyst meetings: PAY • Thurs Jan 19 – European trading updates: Ahold, British Land, Carrefour, Remy Cointreau • Thurs Jan 19 – earnings before the open: BBT, BK, CBSH, CHKP, JBHT, KCG, KEY, MTG, PPG, UNP, WBS • Thurs Jan 19 – earnings after the close: ASB, AXP, IBM, PBCT, SWKS • Fri Jan 20 – China Dec IP/retail sales/FAI and Q4 GDP (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Jan 20 – ECB survey of professional forecasters. 4amET. • Fri Jan 20 – GOD EMPEROR Trump’s inauguration • Fri Jan 20 – Fed speakers: Harker, Williams • Fri Jan 20 – earnings before the open: CFG, COL, GE, KSU, RF, SLB, STI, SYF • Mon Jan 23 – earnings before the open: BOH, HAL, MCD • Mon Jan 23 – earnings after the close: ATI, BRO, SIMO, ZION • Tues Jan 24 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Tues Jan 24 – US existing home sales for Dec. 10amET. • Tues Jan 24 – European trading updates: BHP, Dixons Carphone • Tues Jan 24 – earnings before the open: AKS, BABA, DD, DHI, FITB, GLW, JNJ, JNS, KMB, LMT, MMM, Philips, PLD, PII, SAP, TRV, VZ • Tues Jan 24 – earnings after the close: AA, CA, CNI, COF, CREE, DFS, ISRG, LG Display, NAVI, Samsung Electronics, STLD, STX, SYK, TSS, TXN • Wed Jan 25 – BP 2017 energy outlook • Wed Jan 25 – analyst meetings: KMI • Wed Jan 25 – European trading updates: Antofagasta, Fresnillo, Tod’s, WH Smith • Wed Jan 25 – earnings before the open: ABT, APH, BA, CVLT, EAT, FCX, GWW, HBAN, ITW, LOGI, PG, PGR, Novartis, NYCB, PGR, Santander, SC, STT, TXT, UTX, VLY • Wed Jan 25 – earnings after the close: BXS, CCI, CLB, DRE, EBAY, FFIV, KNX, LRCX, MCK, NOW, QCOM, T, TCBI, UNPQ, VAR, VRTX, WDC, XLNX • Thurs Jan 26 – China Dec industrial profits (Wed night/Thurs morning) • Thurs Jan 26 – US wholesale inventories for Dec. 8:30amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – US advanced goods trade balance for Dec. 8:30amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – US flash services PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – US new home sales for Dec. 10amET. • Thurs Jan 26 – European trading updates: Anglo American, Diageo, JCDecaux, LVMH, Sage Group • Thurs Jan 26 – earnings before the open: ADS, BHI, BIIB, BMS, BMY, BX, CAT, CELG, CMCSA, DGX, DOW, F, LEA, LUV, MJN, OSK, PHM, PX, RCI, RTN, SHW, Sky, STM, SWK, TROW, Unilever • Thurs Jan 26 – earnings after the close: AJG, BCR, FLEX, GOOG, INTC, JNPR, KLAC, MSFT, MXIM, PFPT, SBUX, VMW • Fri Jan 27 – China New Year holiday. Mainland markets closed Fri 1/27-Thurs 2/2. • Fri Jan 27 – US Q4 GDP. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 27 – US durable goods for Dec. 8:30amET. • Fri Jan 27 – US Michigan Confidence for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Jan 27 – earnings before the open: APD, BT, CL, CVX, HON, UBS • Mon Jan 30 – US personal income/spending for Dec. 8:30amET. • Mon Jan 30 – US PCE for Dec. 8:30amET. • Mon Jan 30 – US pending home sales for Dec. 10amET. • Mon Jan 30 – earnings before the open: BAH, EPD • Mon Jan 30 – earnings after the close: CR, GGG, IDTI, IEX, LEG, PFG, RGA • Tues Jan 31 – BOJ policy decision (Mon night/Tues morning) • Tues Jan 31 – US employment cost index (ECI) for Q4. 8:30amET. • Tues Jan 31 – US CoreLogic home prices for Nov. 9amET. • Tues Jan 31 – Chicago PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Tues Jan 31 – US consumer confidence for Jan. 10amET. • Tues Jan 31 – earnings before the open: ABC, ALLY, COH, HOG, LLY, MA, NDAQ, NUE, PFE, SMG, SPG, TMO, UA, UPS, VLO, WDR, XOM, XRX, ZBH • Tues Jan 31 – earnings after the close: AAPL, APC, BDN, CB, CHRW, EQR, MANH, PLT, X • Wed Feb 1 – China NBS manufacturing/non-manufacturing PMIs (Tues night/Wed morning) • Wed Feb 1 – US ADP employment report for Jan. 8:15amET. • Wed Feb 1 – Markit manufacturing PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Wed Feb 1 – US manufacturing ISM for Jan. 10amET. • Wed Feb 1 – US construction spending for Dec. 10amET. • Wed Feb 1 – US auto sales for Jan. • Wed Feb 1 – FOMC decision. 2pmET. • Wed Feb 1 – earnings before the open: ADP, ANTM, MO, MTH, Roche, Siemens • Wed Feb 1 – earnings after the close: ALL, CBL, CDNS, CRUS, DOX, LNC, LSTR, MAA, MET, TSCO • Thurs Feb 2 – ECB economic bulletin. 4amET. • Thurs Feb 2 – BOE policy decision. 7amET. • Thurs Feb 2 – US non-farm productivity and unit labor costs for Q4. 8:30amET. • Thurs Feb 2 – European trading updates: Aberdeen Asset Mgmt., CME, Daimler, Deutsche Bank, EL, IP, MMC, MRK, Nokia, PH, R, Vodafone, WFT, XYL • Thurs Feb 2 – earnings after the close: AIV, CCK, CMG, DATA, FEYE, GGP, GPRO, HIG, KIM, VR • Fri Feb 3 – China mainland markets re-open after being shut for the New Year holiday • Fri Feb 3 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (Thurs night/Fri morning) • Fri Feb 3 – US jobs report for Jan. 8:30amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US Markit services PMI for Jan. 9:45amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US non-manufacturing ISM for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US factory orders for Dec. 10amET. • Fri Feb 3 – US durable goods for Dec. 10amET. • Fri Feb 3 – earnings before the open: APO, ATHN, CLX, HSY, PSX, WY • Mon Feb 6 – earnings before the open: AINV, CBOE, HAS • Mon Feb 6 – earnings after the close: MAC • Tues Feb 7 – China Caixin services PMI (Mon night/Tues morning). • Tues Feb 7 – US trade balance for Dec. 8:30amET. • Tues Feb 7 – US JOLTs report for Dec. 10amET. • Tues Feb 7 – US consumer credit for Dec. 3pmET. • Wed Feb 8 – ECB’s Draghi speaks in Dutch parliament • Wed Feb 8 – earnings after the close: PRU • Thurs Feb 9 – US wholesale inventories/trade sales for Dec. 10amET. • Fri Feb 10 – US import price index for Jan. 8:30amET. • Fri Feb 10 – US Michigan Confidence for Feb. 10amET. • Tues Feb 14 – US PPI for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US Empire Manufacturing for Feb. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US CPI for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US retail sales for Jan. 8:30amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US industrial production for Jan. 9:15amET. • Wed Feb 15 – US NAHB housing market index for Feb. 10amET. • Thurs Feb 16 – ECB meeting minutes • Thurs Feb 16 – US housing starts/building permits for Jan. 8:30amET. • Thurs Feb 16 – US Philadelphia Fed for Feb. 8:30amET. • Tues Feb 21 – US flash manufacturing PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Wed Feb 22 – US existing home sales for Jan. 10amET. • Wed Feb 22 – FOMC minutes from 2/1 meeting. 2pmET. • Thurs Feb 23 – US home price purchase index for Q4. 9amET. • Thurs Feb 23 – US flash services PMI for Feb. 9:45amET. • Fri Feb 24 – US new home sales for Jan. 10amET. • Fri Feb 24 – US Michigan sentiment for Feb. 10amET.
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