Hazard Ratio - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

what is hazard ratio for dummies

what is hazard ratio for dummies - win

FUCKED UP SHIT

I guess I’m what you’d call an addict. Junkie, even. Alcohol? No, I don’t touch the stuff. I drink it, hahaha. Don’t need hands to do that, hence the punchline. Drugs? I mean, I dabble. Recreationally. Whatever you got, if it’s free, I’ll shoot it up, lick it, smoke it, stick under my eyelid, snort it right into my aorta. And I’m not particularly picky either. Captain Cody, Skag, Mud, Fidgeridoo, Herbal Speedball, Organ Oil, Demmies, Miss Emma, Kickers, Mrs. O, Yog-Sothamines, XTC, Sneeze, R-Balls; if you have them, I’ll take them. Still not addicted to the stuff though.
No, my one and only addiction is exceedingly simple, yet intolerably hard to satisfy; FUCKED UP SHIT. I’m not talking about your everyday dark web snuff mind you. I need the real deal. Something about my brain's incapability to shoot me up with dopamine, oxytocin, serotonin and endorphins (the D.O.S.E), according to several online doctors. So it’s a medical thing. Still haven’t scored a prescription for it though.
In any case, my medical condition forces me to deep dive into the fuckiest corners of society. You have your dark underground clubs, murder parties, subteranean sickofests, torture theatres, decapitation diners, and the odd organ orgies, but what I really enjoy, what makes my D.O.S.E overflow, is the ones you never hear about. The ones you have to find. No invitations, no RSVPs. One day they just pop up like a popcorn baby, and before you know it, they’re gone.
I’ve been to a few of these over the years, and they never disappoint. I already told you about the Baby Killer Incident, yeah? Then you know what I’m talking about. Fucked up shit!
I happened upon this particular one by Chance. Chance being this stripper I know that’s into some ritualistic cannibalism or other (I don’t ask), and long story short she knew the sicko who was hosting the event. I was hesitant at first, this particular sicko placing fairly high on my shitlist of sickos, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers and all. Not to mention that my D.O.S.E-withdrawals were flaring up, making me in essence nothing more than a shivering sack of suicidal human tissue on the best of days.
So there I was in an abandoned mall, shivering sack of suicidal human tissue, idly accepting assorted drugs from random passer-by deviants taking a pity on me, when this guy comes up to me, all dressed up in a pink hazmat suit with a freaky unicorn horn (which, when I look back on it, was probably a massive drill-shaped dildo) stuck to his helmet, and he goes Hey Tilly (that’s my name, Tilly), Hey Tilly, he says. I hear you like fucked up shit.
Man, word gets around, I think to myself, but at the same time these loud fucking alarm bells starts going off in my head, accompanied by Soviet Union-amounts of red flags. How the fuck do you know my name? I ask.
Your ears, he answers. The guy told me to look for a man with fucked up ears.
Well, you found’em, I say, making sure to twirl around all ballerina-like, highlighting my ugly-ass ear-stumps. And what fucking guy gave you my name?
That guy, he mumbles idly, not actually pointing to anyone. Say, what happened to them?
To who?
Your, uh, ears.
Oh, that, I say. Sliced them off as a punchline in an elaborate Van Gogh-joke. Well, two seperate jokes, actually. Both Van Gogh-related though.
The guy nods, maybe smiles, but I can’t really tell because of the dildo-helmet, and beckons for me to follow him. Now, I don’t normally follow strange men into bathrooms, but sometimes that’s exactly what you should do. I guess learning when to do it, and when not to do it is an integral skill in this setting, but you’ll figure it out one way or another, so don’t worry too much about it.
Anyway, into the bathroom we go. Like the rest of the place it’s spotless, meaning there isn’t a single fucking spot that isn’t covered in grime or dirt or bodily fluids of some description, and I wrinkle my nose in disgust as the guy waves me into an empty stall at the far end of it.
I hesitate momentarily, my mind doing some olympic-levels of mental gymnastics to calculate the risk/reward-ratio of my current situation. I land on an even 50/50 - good enough - and I saunter into the stall, only to realise it’s not a bathroom stall at all.
Unexpected, I say, my D.O.S.E-levels elevating ever so slightly.
The guy starts descending the winding staircase leading god-knows-where, looking back at me when he notices I’m still just standing there sheepishly. You coming or what? he asks.
Fuck no, I think to myself. Yeah, I say.
Now, I’m no architect, but I’ll hazard a guess and propose that winding staircases are a rare find in your standard mall bathroom, abandoned or not. This wasn’t always a mall, was it? I ask.
Good eye, the guy answers. Used to be a church. I guess capitalism always wins, huh?
I just nod, soon enough realising these fucking stairs are neverending, like one of those spirals you see in old movies, you know, when someone is getting hypnotised? Then I think back on this woman I met when I was young. Younger? Time man, it’s always going somewhere, and I never really bothered catching up to it. Anyway, I think back on this woman I bumped into on the street, and how she out of the blue asks me if I’d seen her job, and I was like what the fuck do you mean?
I’ve lost my job, she says.
It’s always in the last place you look, I note.
That’s really helpful, she says unironically. Say, could you help me with something else?
What?
Do you know, she starts. Do you know how to rewind a winding staircase?
I don’t know man, that shit always stuck with me. Some kind of riddle? An elaborate joke? A covert Operation Mindfuck? Escaped lunatic lingo? In any case, that’s how I felt when we descended those stairs. Like I was rewinding a winding staircase.
Here we are then, the guy suddenly exclaims, bringing me out of my temporal trip down memory lane.
I am wildly underwhelmed at this point, but after letting my eyes get used to the dimly lit basement chamber, I can feel my brain starting to upchuck some good fucking shit into my system.
Champagne? the guy asks, beckoning to a rather unbecoming rat-faced girl in the corner to come hither with a tray of alcoholic beverages.
Don’t mind if I’m already two steps ahead of you, I think, having snatched a bottle I found sitting by the stairs. I pop it open, and enjoy the weird expressions on their faces as I chug the whole fucking thing in a manner of seconds. Tastes like an aging puke-shit hybrid, but my think-organ seems to enjoy it, and I’m not one to start a fight with my own fucking brain.
I watch the two of them trade looks of confusion, realisation, and then something I (falsely) identify as fear, then turn my attention to the tied up naked man at the far end of the room. I think I forgot to mention him, but he was there too. In fact, he was the sole reason my D.O.S.E was elevating - the prospect of some kind of fucked up torture show enough to get my juices flowing.
Now what? the girl asks. Do we tell him?
Fuck it, the guy says, and then proceeds to bash half of my skull in with a crowbar.
You know the part in every fucking action movie where the main character knocks some poor unnamed henchman unconscious? Do you realise how fucking dangerous that is? Concussions are silent killers man. Could’ve inflicted some serious brain damage too. Those fuckers can fuck you up for life.
Anyway, I guess I must’ve been out for a few, because when I woke up, I found myself dangling from the ceiling, my body suspended mid-air by some rather sturdy-looking chains.
You fucked up royally this time Tilly, the dildo-helmet proposed.
If my jaw hadn’t felt like someone had ripped it out, then jammed it back in the wrong way around, I probably would have responded with a witty remark. As circumstances were though, I felt forced to reply with a half-hearted Guh?
Let’s show you exactly how much you fucked up, the guy says.
My mind slips in and out of what I assume is consciousness, but it’s like my thoughts are torn in half; one side continuously trying to make sense of what I’m seeing, and the other rapidly filling with nausea-inducing dread. Both are fucking screaming though, my stump-ears somehow hearing the inside of my mind lamenting as it drowns slowly in an all-consuming madness.
The naked man screams too, but he’s more physical about it. How can a supposedly regular set of lungs contain that much air, I find myself thinking. His skin is a deep shade of red, some of it undoubtedly caused by lack of oxygen, some of it by the ever-growing stream of blood ceaselessly dripping down from his soon-to-be empty eye-socket.
Pull it Ems! the guy yells.
The rat-faced girl, Ems, has this horrid fucking grin on her face. You know how an old lemon looks, like a really shrivelled up piece of lemon? All wrinkles and browning leathery texture? That was her face. All fucking rotting wrinkled lemon texture smiles.
Pull it!
Ems got the naked man’s eye firmly gripped between her thumb and index, long dirty fingernails digging into the spongy vitreous, having now pulled it about an inch or so outside of the poor fucker’s socket. And I can just tell by her posture that she’s readying herself for that final, horrible yank.
I want to close my eyes so badly at this point, you know, just fucking succumb to the madness my brain is desperately conjuring up to save me, but at the same time I can’t. I physically cannot get my eyelids to work. I don’t know why, but that fucking fact freaks me out more than anything else going on.
And then it happens. With a swift, overly dramatic motion, she rips the fucking eye all the way out, and the man’s tormented shrieks reaches sonic levels that transcends human hearing. My ears are ringing, my mind is swirling, and my eyes are itching.
Watch this Tilly, the guy says coldly. Watch this fucking shit real closely.
And I do. Barely conscious at this point, hanging onto sanity only by fucking ignoring reality as a concept, I watch as Ems drops the severed eye to the dirty grime-covered floor, the disgusting fucking thing still somehow connected to the man via the optical nerves - impossibly long squirming crimson tendrils.
What the fuck? I mumble.
I told you, the guy chuckles. I fucking told you.
It’s hard to say how many there were. Countless maybe. Countless and then some, probably. Thin crimson worms, entangled in each other, organically interwoven to form a disgusting chain from the naked man’s empty eye socket to the severed eye on the floor. I could see them slithering in perfect repulsive unison, and suddenly the eye starts...moving.
This is the best part, the guy says.
The squirming chain slowly starts retracting, the blue of the eye turning a savory shade of grime-grey as it is dragged across the floor, up the naked man's legs, stomach, neck, face, until finally, after what seems like an eternity, it pops right back into the socket with a repulsive gloooph.
My stomach wants me to vomit now, but it’s barren and dry and empty and sour, so instead my brain takes control, a tempting blank void all the way in the back of my mind presented as a possible solution. But they won’t let me go. Ems erupts in a maniacal laughter, like the sound of a chainsaw on rough concrete, and the guy soon follows. I feel the muscles in my back contracting all seizure-like; more than likely my body’s last desperate attempt at shutting me down.
The naked man has stopped screaming now, the tortured wails replaced by a deep gargle, slime and blood mixed together in the back of his throat. Maybe his nightmare will end, I think, but then I realise it won’t. It hasn’t. It’s still going.
The eye is still moving.
Being dragged now inside his skull, I see the spongy texture of it bending and morphing hideously as it squeezes past bone structures that are by far too fucking narrow, and then it disappears completely, accompanied by a soundscape of gloophs and schlucks.
The man topples over, still tied to the chair, and convulses in agony for minutes, until it all suddenly stops.
I have never experienced such silence. That’s how I imagine space, you know. A great old big fucking vast empty nothingness of all the senses.
And now, the guy says, standing over the corpse of the naked man. Now it is your turn.
Ems hideous face morphs into that smile again. Big old lemon wrinkled smile. I remember her crooked yellow fingernails so vividly, horrid jagged things inching closer and closer to my eye, until I could feel them scraping on my exposed pupil.
I guess my mind found a way out right then. Fucking took it long enough though, but I figure I must have passed out, maybe from the pain, maybe from the fear, maybe from the exhaustion. Most likely neither of those, though.
When I woke up, I was alone, face down in my own sour-dry vomit on the ground. No naked corpse man, no dildo-helmet guy, no lemon-smiled Ems. I spent a good fifteen minutes checking my eyes, trembling fingers tracing them, you know, just to see if they were still there. And they were. They were fucking solid. They were fucking perfect.
I guess I spent a few weeks or so recuperating from that shit, but I’ve never felt quite the same. Turns out there’s a reason for that.
It’s weird you know, how I didn’t realise it sooner. I might be a fucked up piece of shit, but I’m no dummy. Gotta hand it to them though, it was a clever way to do it. Offering you a drink. I guess that’s how they got it in the naked man too. I suppose that’s why they told me I fucked up. Took too much, as the saying goes. Chugged the whole infestation.
I cut myself shaving this morning. Just a tiny nick, you know. But where you’d expect blood, there was none. Instead I was greeted with the unseemly sight of a thin crimson worm, dangling restlessly by my nose.
Now if that’s not some FUCKED UP SHIT, I don’t know what is.
TCC
submitted by hyperobscura to nosleep [link] [comments]

Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)

Hello, dummies
It's your old pal, Fuzzy.
As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great.
What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. I do my bit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post.
That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way.
We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps.
Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy.
TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle.
Ready? Let's get started.
1. The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life
The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows:
Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself.
Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part.
You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus.
That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it.
Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets?
2. A Hedging Taxonomy
The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now.
(i) Swaps
A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one.
Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered.
The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game.
I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging.
There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested.
Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure).
(ii) Forwards
A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me.
Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways.
People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances.
These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them.
(iii) Collars
No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray!
To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts.
(3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs
You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years.
First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA.
Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire.
Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking?
Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama.
Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details.
I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here.
Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post.
*EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
submitted by fuzzyblankeet to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

why does cox regression give me weird results?

Hey everyone,
I'm trying to see if RVD predicts overall mortality in a group of patients. RVD is a dummy categorical variable (0,1; 1=event). When I run the same code for age (continuous) or gender (categorical), no issues. But here I get very strange outcomes.
My code:
proc phreg data=tvr;
class rvd /param=ref ref=first;
model time2*event(0)= rvd /rl ties= efron;
run;

My outcome:

Parameter ParameterEstimate HazardRatio 95% Hazard Ratio ConfidenceLimits P-value
RVD 18.26528 85606988 0.000 - . 0.9961
Full screenshot: https://imgur.com/0C9fgA0

I'd appreciate any help to understand what is going on or fix my code if possible.
submitted by Naj_md to sas [link] [comments]

Return of the RaveLord (Shiranui for Casual)

Howdy. Welcome to the F, where the jokes are made up, and the tuners don't matter.
This post is an update from yesterday wherein I had a build, and folks gave me some excellent tips about how to improve it, and man were they right. So, I'm back to see what else I could do.

So, lets begin.
Monster Value As the Headstone Reads
Shiranui Solitaire 3 Makes any tuner super easy to search, but it took me a lot longer to figure out why he was so good. Tribute him for Uni-Zombie, toss whatever works best for you as effect, and pop off.
Shiranui Spiritmaster 3 I wanna see him, and he's rarely undead.
Shiranui Spectralsword 2 Artifacts have nothing on this guy
Shiranui Spectralsword Shade 1 Running at one still because I've no reason to alter the ratio at this point
Shiranui Squire 1 Keeping her at one. She is a lovely first turn play but the hilarious problem is that Shiranui really wants a GY (as any zombie deck would), and the play you could make here; Samuraisaga, while quite nice, doesn't do anything in the first turn unless you had an amazing time throwing your deck away; which you did not
Uni-Zombie 3 Its not fair how nice this guy is. He comes with his own soundtrack. Run 4 if Konami ever decided to make even worse decisions.
Mezuki 3 He might as well be a monster reborn. Thanks for coming.
Gozuki 1 Turns out, I was not very fair to him. He's actually dummy useful on field and in GY. Reading. I should do it more.
Doomking Balderdoch 2 He is Lord of the Rave, but he also puts down folks that shouldn't be there, sometimes by stopping their pranks with negation, but most of the time he removes them with maximum force through a banish. He just demands the proper venue.
Necroworld Banshee 2 ZW is best searched. Drop her into the GY by whatever means and enjoy the lightshow.
Jack A' Booran 1 Dropped him to 1 but I might actually put him back to 2. He does a lot for the deck but actually, sometimes you cannot afford the discard.
Glow-up Bloom 1 He slithers on to the floor to help you end games. Afterwards, who knows the antics he will cause. What a scamp, he is.
Ash Blossom & Joyous Spring 3 Eeyep, the Soulburner SD exists. Anyway she's a fire zombie, as funny as that is; as is probably the best hand trap right now.

Spell Value Justification
Zombie World 2 Run Equal to the amount of Banshee. You really don't want to see it. You want to banish Banshee for it.
Called by the Grave 3 Might be a tad situation but I'll literally use it to remove lads I just don't want to see again. Maybe this slot could be better filled but having a defense against Ash is just so nice to have.
Twin Twisters 2 Speaking of defense, I upped TT to 2. Sometimes the discard can be a hazard but more often than not, you'll find better ways to benefit. I probably won't up it again.
Foolish Burial 1 Would You Use The Bathroom For Seventeen Quadrillion Dollars?
Gold Sarcophagus 1 Squire and Spiritmaster might still be the best targets, but if you wanna Solitaire for the coolest reasons; be my guest.
Super Polymerization 2 Some lads Side this boy. I Main it. Is that a mistake? Thats info I could benefit from.
Monster Reborn 1 Good Card is good.

Traps Value Why Would You Do this?
Shiranui Swallow's Slash 2 Turns out that using this on your own Synchro can have benefits, just be careful. Its like Double Lasers from the Edge. Its not safe.
Rivalry of the Warlords 2 Dunno how to feel about this one. I feel its too limiting. Might be willing to cut for Return of the Zombie or something.

Extra Deck Monster Value Why he is yet another Boss Monster?
Shiranui Samuraisaga 2 A stepping stone that can get your toys off of the top shelf.
Shiranui Shogunsaga 2 I love him deeply and how he can your foes LP in one easy move, towards mid-game in particular.
Shiranui Sunsaga 1 His Radiance. He arrives like the meteor that took out the Dinosaurs but more
Dawn Dragster 1 He returns. What does he do? What he does, is tell your foe 'no' at least once.
Beeleze, of the Diabolic Dragons 1 Hunga Bunga Number Big.
PSY-Framelord Omega 1 What he does here is go Back
Scarlight Red Dragon Archfiend 1 A good generic option. I could swap for other stuff but I think I like keeping him around. Keeps Omega humble when the Banlist can't.
Crystal Wing Synchro Dragon 1 In which you manage to find yet more ways to refuse your opponents "right" to do things
Vampire Sucker 1 She's finally back, performing for you
Avendread Savior 1 Do you have Doomking? Cool. Make Sucker. Otherwise make this fellow.
Borrelsword Dragon 1 Do not ask what you can do to end the game. Ask the game how it can end
Yuki-Onna, the Absolute Zero Mayakashi 1 If she's here you probably won already but she's great to have nonetheless in case you did not.
Dragonecro the Nethersoul Dragon 1 Just Do The Thing, my guy. Its not that hard.
This iteration is a lot better, in that it wins more games. Ghost Meets Girl is a good card, but we had better options.

Any tips will be entertained. Thanks!
submitted by Azteckh to yugioh [link] [comments]

RWBY Play-by-Play 13: 3 Episode Rundown

Welcome

This is the 13th entry into the Play-by-Play.
Just about everyone has told me the next six episodes are terrible. This is incredibly shocking news, considering how narrowly this show avoided being scrapped. In response to this news, I will be taking a step back from these episodes. Instead of the levels of detail I usually scrutinize with, I will instead only focus on major happenings, important moments, and seriously funny jokes.
This is all in an attempt to power through these upcoming episodes quickly.
It means a drop in quality for these blogs, a loss of detail and resolution, but also the ability to move on quickly to greener pastures.
You all claim volume 2 is a major jump in quality, and I'm inclined to believe you. You have been very upfront and honest so far, readily accepting the apparent flaws in this volume, so I feel I can trust you. To that end, I am endeavoring to get there ASAP.
I hope this works out. I don't like intentionally reducing the quality of my work, but in this case it may be justified for the sake of my sanity and yours.
If you all don't like how this particular blog entry turns out, let me know your thoughts and, if I agree with your assessment, I will adjust accordingly.
This change is only for the next six, as 'The Stray' and 'Black and White' were called out as worth my time, so they will be done in the normal fashion.
Okay, let's see how this goes.

Recap

Our teams are formed. Who ended up with who is no surprise, considering the intro.
Roman has made a comeback, and he is buying dust from some dude in a mask, and paying with Visa gift cards. We've learned that Dust is basically magical energy in physical form, so whatever he's using it all for can not be a good thing. My guess is he's either trying to supply an illicit army with 'ammunition' or he's building a bomb. A very large bomb, at that.
The last episode was incredible. Stunning. I wanted it twice more on my own time and just really drank it in. I am unsatisfied with my entry for that episode, because I don't think it does it justice. I wish I could redo it, but what's done is done. All I can do is move on.

The Badge and The Burden

We open with a Window
Geddit? kek.
Nobody wakes up this adorably. Not even a princess
This isn't going to end well
OMG RUBY!
Okay, props for that. Weiss was being way too cute. Definitely had to break that up. Knock her down a peg.
"Gooood morning Team RWBY!"
Dawww. My heart could melt.
"What in the world is wrong with you?!"
Other than being too cute for words, kind of a lot actually.
Consider this screenshot
Yang's objects include: A candelabra, Ruby's dog pillow, ruby's headphones, the bravest hairbrush known to man, a picture, what looks like a tiny version of Pyrrha's shield for some reason, a thermos, what looks like a bottle of lotion, and, of course, Dust for Dummies.
She kept the Dust for Dummies book. I guess Ruby really does intend to read it. To 'make it up' to Weiss. Adorable.
Blake's objects include the same bottle of lotion, a toothbrush, a book, and 'Shi-nee' brand toothpaste. Shi-nee. Schnee. Wow.
"A magical clean for a magical girl"
Ruby, savage with that whistle
I guess that's Weiss' weakness. Whistles.
Bonzai!
Smut, eh?
So as much as you read high-minded books about men with two souls...
I love these school uniforms
The jacket, vest, blouse, and bolo tie is very classy and cute. Same with the plaid skirts. They just sing classy and cute. Fun and conservative. If I had ladybits, it would be an outfit I'd wear just because it looks good.
It also seems the girls are allowed some leeway for self-expression. Ruby keeps her cape and adds leggings to increase her modesty.
Weiss wears the uniform in what I can only assume is the official approved fashion, very fetching.
Yang, little tart that she is, goes for the Zettai ryōiki look.
Blake continues to wear her confounding bow. I hate you, bow. You make me look like a fool.
It makes sense, if you consider Pyrrha's speech about anonymity and expression from a few episodes back. Even though they have uniforms, they are allowed some level of personalization. Some self-expression. That seems very important in this world to the point a combat school wouldn't dare to limit it. You must wear the uniform, but you are not required to wear only the uniform. Very nice, very consistent world building. I like it.
Oh dear
Ding ding bzzzt
That made me laugh harder than it had any right too.
Oh deargod no.
Young ladies, I forbid you from sleeping in such deathtraps!
Where did all those books comes from? Also loving Weiss' luggage in a corner, stacked all neatly, hah.
The Pacman stack is real
Blunderbuss axe?
Wow... I question it's practicality....
This is the mustache of a man who would use a blunderbuss axe
Suddenly it all makes sense.
Deathstalker: Giant scorpion
Beowolf: Bipedal wolf demon
Boarbatusk: It's just a boar...
Nevermore: Giant crow demon
Ursa: Bear Demon
Got it.
Out of all of them, nevermore is my favorite name. It's so perfectly ominous, and yet so perfectly descriptive.
Deathstalker is my least favorite. It sounds like the gamertag of a 12 year old.
xX_Deathstalker420_Xx
ick.
Creatures of Grimm. Creatures of Grimm. So Grimm is something else, and these are just the creatures. So what's Grimm then? This world's Devil (in the biblical sense) or just some sort of general idealized badness...
We know the Creatures of Grimm almost wiped out humanity until Dust happened, so that sounds pretty biblical. Grimm being some sort of Devil figure makes sense in that context, with Dust being a gift from the heavens.
Maybe that's what happened to the moon. It's where Dust came from. The moon sacrificed itself to being Dust to the world and save humanity, also born from Dust.
It's all just idle speculation, but it's a workable theory....
Vale and three kingdoms. Vale is a kingdom?
This little tiny city is a kingdom?!
Man...this world sucks.
Dude's kind of a perv, eh?
I love the belly physics on this guy....
"Blah blah blah"
OMG dying... He literally says blah blah blah. Takes me back to high school...
Peter is this guy's name. Peter. He looks like a Peter.
Ugh, Ruby no.
Prof. Port, eh?
Peter Port?
Yeah, that makes sense.
"Grimm Studies day 1 notes:"
Honestly, I don't blame her. It seems like he's just telling some sort of stupid story. Still, she should know better than that, being a leader and all, but I get it.
Nice handwriting though.
Weiss does not approve
The Beowolf. The. One.
He's telling some grandiose story about beating one Beowolf. Those things Rubles destroyed by the dozen?
What is with this guy.
Oh geez.
Weiss is losing it
And, honestly, I'm on her side. Ruby needs to step up to the plate and be someone worth following. Leadership is a badge and a burden, not to put too fine a point on it.
No one is paying attention, except Weiss is is literally shaking in her chair
"I do sir!"
She sounds like such a whiney stuck up bitch. Fitting.

The Badge and the Burden part 2

Ummm...costume change?
What happened to the uniform? That is a major oversight.
Really started this episode off on a sour note.
Yang is so awesome
THE LITTLE FLAG!
It's too much. "Fight well!" bhahaha.
She is such a little cutie.
Yang's big toothy grin here is too much
She only got mad at Ruby, when everyone had something to say. And it was all well-wishes and cheerleading. That's not good.
Boarbatusk really knocked her ass over teakettle
"Bold new approach" what an asshole, hahaha.
Ruby gives actually useful combat advice and what's Weiss' reaction?
Rawr
I think I was right, Weiss is having a serious problem dealing with Ruby as a leader. And honestly, I don't blame her.
Weiss may be a frigid bitch, but she's right a majority of the time. Her people skills could use some work.
Also, didn't she promise to be nicer?
Awww. She looks like a kicked puppy
Because, in a way, she kind of is.
Nice moves.
Awwwww.....
I know Ruby isn't being a great leader but... she doesn't deserve this.
Bicker Bicker Bicker....
I find myself on Weiss' side here. She's being too harsh, but making some good points.
Uh oh, lol
Awwwww, she's so crushed
Too mean, Weiss. Too mean.
"I enjoyed your lecture"
You little suck-up.
"DEAR GIRL, CONFESS TO ME YOUR STRIFFE!"
I love this guy.
"...That's preposterous"
BAHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH (gasp) BAHAHAHAHHAHA
Hello Crimestoppers? I just witnessed a cold-blooded murder.
I'm gonna need a minute...
...
...
...
And we're back. Oh god. Fucking Crushed. Okay, moving on.
"I've made more mistakes then any man, woman, and child on this planet"
Whoa. That's...heavy.
Our headmaster is definitely more than he seems. Was he a General is some great war and ordered a bunch of people to their deaths or something?
Must have some sort of crazy dark past.
Between this and the "he wasn't even there" line we are definitely getting a sense of the scale of his mystery, but very little clues as to it's nature. I can't even hazard a guess outside of wild speculation. I like it.
"Do you?"
That's the question right there. Do you think you're a bad leader? Really think about that. Really look back and consider. Would you follow you? I wouldn't. I'd sooner follow Weiss because, bitch she may be, she's smart and capable.
If Ruby shaped up and gets her shit together though, then she could be the type of inspirational leader that people would follow into hell. That's not something I could say about Weiss.
Wait, Port has followed him for years and never been lead astray? But what about all those mistakes?
Was Port just one of the lucky ones, or did these mistakes happen a long long time ago, before Port?
The Professor doesn't look that old. In fact, him and Peter are about the same age, I'd wager. So what gives? He must be older than he looks.
This mystery is so intriguing. I'm gonna go with "older than he looks" as a sort of working theory.
"After seeing how exceptional I am"
Oh, shut your fucking mouth. You ain't all that.
"Your exceptional skill is matched by your poor attitude"
Dropping those truth bombs.
Ozpin drops some truth bombs, too.
Damn, Port. Your wisdom is as great as your belly.
I love this entire sequence. It's tropey, but its done really really well. Ozpin's VA really sells it, and so does Port's.
Of course Yang is a sprawl-sleeper
It fits her personality so well.
She seems strangely unguarded, considering her target is asleep right underneath her. She must be absolutely confident in her cover. Which makes sense, because Blake has shown zero indication of knowing who she is. Outside of stalking her in the Emerald Forest. I am dying to know what her play is.
"Cream and five sugars"
Of course. Of course that's how she takes her coffee. I bet Nora takes hers with 7.
Awwwwwwww
Weiss is such a rollercoaster.
"I always wanted bunkbeds as a kid"
AWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
My heart. Can't take it. Too sweet.
Let's just hope it sticks this time.

Jaunedice, Part 1

It's Jaune vs Generic Huntsman mk 1
And from the looks of things, Jaune is already losing. As expected.
Why are they fighting?
"This is the part where you lose"
Right?
Oh, it's sparring class
Are those...health bars?
"Mr. Arc's aura has dropped into the red"
Okay, so aura is measurable and quantifiable. While that takes away some of the mystical mystery, it makes a lot of sense. Aura is what makes Hunters who they are. It powers their...powers. It shields them from harm. If there's one thing you'd want to be able to measure, it would be that.
Nothing being able to would be like driving a car without a fuel gauge.
While I think I would have preferred Aura to be a little more mystical to offset the techno-fantasy future aesthetic a bit, I don't hate it.
Is it just me, or does she look a bit horrified?
Do you think she's put the pieces together? Or is she just worried about the target of her crazy desperate affections?
Here's a question: Why is a girl like her desperate? Seems like such a gorgeous slab of woman could get whatever she wanted, whenever she wanted. Generic Huntsman mk. 1 is pretty sexy, why fawn over this...weak-ass nobody?
Pyrrha, you are a mystery...
"Speak for yourself"
Hey, hush. He may be a rotten lying bitch who's gonna get someone killed (probably Pyrrha) but that's no reason to wish death.
Actually, I think that's my new prediction. I've let go of the Pyrrhic Victory thing (that was dumb) but I think I'm going to guess Jaune and her and gonna get all lovey-dovey, but he's gonna make some boneheaded call and get her killed. Then he gets all boohooey and shapes up into a proper warrior, teams up with Ruby, and saves the fucking world.
We'll see.
Vital Festival?
Combat tournament?
Sounds cool!
BAHH!
Too close.
Nora is telling some story about the middle of the night (it was day)
And Yang is just...rapt attention
She is so excited about everything. Oh, I adore her.
They were surrounded by Ursai (They were beowolfs)
DOZENS OF THEM!
Yang just nods in excitement. Awww.
Jaune's looking like droopy-dog on downers
Must be feeling like a fucking fool after that fight.
Good.
Ruby notices
♫ Love is in the air ♫
I'm still getting a strong "love interest" vibe from these two. Are we gonna get into some sort of love triangle with them and Pyrrha? Is that why people hate these episodes? Because, honestly, they arn't all that bad really...
Weiss, of course, doesn't give shit. But she is sitting with Ruby, so that's a good sign on the 'best friend' front, eh?
Pyrrha notices, too
See what I mean? I'm sensing an incoming love triangle.
inb4 "That's my man!"
I wonder who would win between Ruby and Pyrrha? They're both A-class fighters. It'd be a tossup.
Dream? I guess that makes sense. Classic Nora.
Pyrrha and Ruby are already both fishing around. Yeah, if this devolves into a love triangle, I may just have to skip it..
What the fuck?!
...Bunny ears?
She's a rabbit furry.
Also we've established that Team CRDL (I think that's how it was spelled. I honestly don't remember) are bullies. Okay then.
Their designs all suck, too. So bland and samey. Dudes in armor. Cardin's hot, though.
She is just a tiny little thing, isn't she?
Wait a minute...
Bunny ears and human ears...
...
...Screw me...
Now I don't know what to think!
You know what? No. I'm done speculating on that. Other than her first appearance where I thought her bow was cat ears, only to find out it was a bow, I have no reason to assume she's anything else but a human who wears a bow. I think I just want her to be a catgirl. But she's not. No evidence.
Here's something more concrete, we just saw our first furry. I don't know why it took me so long to realize this but...where are all the Catgirls? Horsemen? Werewolves? Where, in short, are all the furries? A whole school of Hunters, and only one furry?
So either they are super rare, or they are super discriminated against, or possibly both. The ratio is hard to ignore. Why did this never dawn on me before?
Considering we've only seen one, and there's apparently a rights protest going on, I'm going to assume both. Rare and Hated.
Which would explain why Blake would want to hide it..
NO! Stop it. Just because you want it doesn't make it so.
Moving on.
Cardin Winchester is picking on Jaune.
"He's a bully"
Eyeroll
Then we have a sequence where Cardin is being a jerk. It's very....afterschool special.
The rocket locker thing is fucking cool, though. Very convenient.
Out walking around and need your equipment in a hurry? Rocket locker!
It seems dangerous, but also just the sort of thing you might need when the monster infested forest is within walking distance of the facility.
"We'll break is legs!"
Oh...god. She's serious isn't she? That's...dark. But the delivery of the line is so cute.
Her being excited as the prospect of going all Godfather on who is nothing- more than a schoolyard bully is really terrifying...
She would do it, too. She would do it, and she would laugh and giggle and smile.
Okay, Nora is now scary. O_O
"Ow, that hurts!"
She's a cute little bunny rabbit!
The animation of Cardin grabbing the ears is...so disgusting. Ugh.
Also Cardin just grabbing her ears and pulling is evil. Now I kinda want to break his legs....
"I told you it was real"
"What a freak"
These lines lend a lot of credence to my "rare and hated" theory. They're so rare these kids weren't even sure if the ears were real. And they find them "freakish" instead of normal.
Poor little bunny rabbit
Anyone else getting Zootopia vibes?
"It must be hard to be a Faunus"
Faunus. Not furry. Okay, good to know.
Also not everyone finds them freakish. Some people pity or sympathize with them.
Or, in Blake and Nora's case, righteous anger.
So, yeah, I was right in episode one. On the nose anti-racism message. How tiring.
So we have an obvious and on-the-nose anti-bullying message and obvious and on the nose anti-racism message. Add in an incipient love-triangle and you just might have the more tedious and obvious story ever aired.

Wrap-up and Review

While these episodes aren't the worst thing ever, I can see why they draw some ire. The leadership thing was pretty well handled, but the racism and bullying thing is just...ick. It's so afterschool special.
There was a lot of valuable information to be gleaned from these episodes, though. Some good world-building.
Interestingly, the voice acting seems to have stepped up across the board again. Ruby sounds ever more like a girl, and less like a nasally woman, so kudos on that. Blake hasn't made much progress, and still sounds like an amateur reaching for an emotion, instead of just feeling it.
Pyrrha and Yang continue to steal the show, VA-wise, as well as favorite character-wise.
I hope the less detailed entry is okay. On a normal episode there wold have been a lot more screenshots and general reactions. I tried to jsut focus on the really funny stuff, the really cute stuff, or the really important stuff.

Links

I'm gonna do links a little differently. Tell me if you prefer the shorter links section, or if you want me to list them all every time, or whatever else. I don't think linking all of them is sustainable or even necessary.
First Entry
Previous Entry

Play of the Game

"...That's Preposterous"
Eliminated Weiss 100♥
submitted by TellAPhony to RWBY [link] [comments]

A Sailor's Dictionary

Abandon: Wild state in which a sailor acquires a boat.
Aboard: 1). A piece of construction lumber. 2). What one becomes when one is a-uninterested.
Above Board: Above decks, therfore, meaning to be out in the open, visible to all; honest, straight forward, etc.
Abreast: An object searched for by male lookouts. Only one?
Afterguy: Last guy out of the bar.
American Practical Navigator (Bowditch): Ancient nautical treatise, generally though to deal with navigation, which to the present day has resisted all attempts to decipher it. Often found on board ship as a decorative element or paperweight.
Amidships: Condition of being surrounded by boats.
Anchor: 1). Any of a number of heavy, hook-shaped devices that is dropped over the side of the boat on the end of a length of rope and/or chain, and which is designed to hold a vessel securely in place until (a) the wind exceeds 2 knots, (b) the owner and crew depart, or (c) 3 a.m. 2.) A device designed to bring up mud samples from the bottom at inopportune or unexpected times. 3). The thing rotting in the bilge of every racing yacht (unseen).
Anchor Light: A small light used to discharge the battery before daylight.
Azimuth Bar: Where Azimuths hang out.
Backstay: 1). What unsteady folks should do in heavy weather. 2). The last thing to grab as your falling overboard.
Baggywrinkle: Effect of sun and salt spray on your face.
Bar: 1). Long, low-lying navigational hazard, usually awash, found at river mouths and harbor entrances, where it is composed of sand or mud, and ashore, where it is made of mahogany or some other dark wood. Sailors can be found in large numbers around both. 2). Land based nesting and pre-mating natural habitat frequented by sailors when they force themselves to go ashore.
Bare Boat: Clothing optional or sailing naked.
Bar Buoy: What you will be looking for to lead you to a good time.
Bare Poles: Sailing with unclothed persons from Eastern Europe.
Barometer: Meteorological instrument which sailors use to confirm the onset of bad weather. It's readings, together with heavy rain, severe rolling, high winds, dark skies and deep cloud cover indicate the presence of a storm.
Battery: Electrochemical storage device capable of lighting a lamp of wattage approximately equal to that of a refrigerator lamp for a period of 15 minutes after having been charged for two hours.
Beam Sea: A situation in which waves strike a boat from the side, causing it to roll unpleasantly. This is one of the four directions from which wave action tends to produce extreme physical discomfort. The other three are bow sea' (waves striking from the front),following sea' (waves striking from the rear), and `quarter sea' (waves striking from any other direction).
Beating to windward: A method of flogging crew to increase upwind performance when racing.
Berth: 1). Any horizontal surface whose total area does not exceed one half of the surface area of an average man at rest, onto which at least one liter of some liquid seeps during any 12-hour period and above which there are not less than 10 kilograms of improperly secured objects. 2). Little newborn addition to the crew. 3). Sometimes the result of removing the last article of clothing.
Bifurcation Buoy: Buoy that you can't tell if its coming or going.
Binoculars: Entertainig shipboard kaleidoscope which when held up to the light reveals interesting patterns caused by salt spray scratches and thumb prints. Uncapped, its lens may be used to collect small amounts of salt from spray through evaporation.
Bitter End: 1) Finish of a race when you are last over the line. 2) Wrong end of a siphon hose. 3) Time to alert the bartender in the English pub.
BOAT: 1). Break Out Another Thousand. 2). A hole in the water surrounded by wood/plastic/steel/aluminium into which you pour all your money.
BOAT Bucks: Monetary unit for yachties, for the sake of simplicity with a fixed conversion ratio of 1.000 with the local currency.
Boat ownership: 1). Standing fully-clothed under a cold shower, tearing up 100-dollar bills. 2). Boat ownership is like riding in a convertible with the top down in a cold rainstorm, steadily throwing 100 dollar bills out the window. Except for the fact, that you cannot actually ride in the boat, because it is broken.
Boom: 1). Laterally mounted pole to which a sail is fastened. Often used during jibing to shift crew members to a fixed, horizontal position. 2). Loud noise made during a surprise jibe sometimes quieted by a grinder before swimming. 3). Sound made when a spirit stove is used to convert boat into a liquid asset. 4). Also called boom for the sound that's made when it hits crew in the head on its way across the boat. For slow crew, it's called `boom, boom.'
Boomkin: Small, very young boom, less than one year old.
Bos'n: Short for Boatswain, pronounced "bosun", the person in charge of the deck crew, and the deck and rigging in general. In the modern Navy the Bos'n is a Warrant Officer, while a Bosn's Mate is a Petty Officer.
Bottom Characteristics: With regard to human beings, the definition speaks for itself.
Bottom Paint: 1). What you get when the cockpit seats are freshly painted. 2). The most dented can of paint.
Bow: 1). The part of the boat that no one should have to work on. 2). Temporary section of an offshore Catamaran. 3). A physical act performed to acknowledge those who are applauding your fine sailing skills. 4). Gesture from the helmsman as he crosses the finish line first. 5). Best part of the ship to ram another with. 6). Front part of multihulls often found underwater. 5). What you do after performing an outstanding docking maneuver.
Boxing The Compass: What you might attempt to foolishly do after drunkenly returning to the ship.
Brass Monkey Weather: Refers to very cold weather.
Broach: Piece of jewelry that you would not want to wear in heavy weather at sea.
Broad Reach: How a lady of the evening might grab at you as you walk down a dimly lit pier.
Bulkhead: 1). A very anal retentive sailor (see also Stern). 2). Discomfort suffered by sailors who drink too much. 3). Uni-sex bathroom. 4). Discomfort suffered by sailors who drink too much. 5). Boater with a very large cranium.
Bunk: 1). A small uncomfortable area for wet sailors to attempt sleep. 2). Location to store unused sails.
Buoy: 1). Opposite of girlie or flying gull. 2). Navigational aid. There are several types and colors of buoys of which the most numerous are: -green can (seen as a fuzzy black spot on the horizon) -red nun (seen as a fuzzy black spot on the horizon) -red or green day beacon(seen as a fuzzy black spot on the horizon), and -vertically striped black-and-white channel marker (seen as a fuzzy black spot on the horizon)
Burdened Vessel: The boat which, in a collision situation, did not have the right-of-way. See PRIVILEGED VESSEL.
Captain: See FIGUREHEAD
Calm: Sea condition characterized by the simultaneous disappearance of the wind and the last cold beverage.
Can Buoy: (Pronounced Can BOY) Male with diarrhea.
Canvas: An abrasive sailcloth used to remove excess skin from knuckles
Capsize: Interior diameter of any piece of headgear, usually expressed in inches [sometimes kilometers].
Catamaran: Boat design involving two hulls therefore twice as likely to hit something or develop a leak, yet taking twice as long to sink.
Cathead(s): Popular menu item in some overseas food stores.
Caulk: Any one of a number of substances introduced into the spaces between planks in the hull and decking of a boat that give a smooth, finished appearance while still permitting the passage of a significant amount of seawater.
Celestial Fix: What you need every day.
Chart: 1) Large piece of paper that is useful in protecting cabin and cockpit surfaces from food and beverage stains. 2) Type of nautical map which tells you exactly where you are aground or what you just hit.
Charley Noble: Many a rookie sailor has been sent to find Charley Noble. Usually after much searching and being unable to find the person named, he will eventually discover that Charley Noble is the galley stove pipe. This is akin to being put on lookout duty for the mail buoy.
Chine: 1) Word used after, "rise and ..." 2) What the sun does.
Chock: 1). Sudden and usually unpleasant surprise suffered by Spanish seaman. 2). Full right up to here...
Circuit Breaker: An electromechanical switching unit intended to prevent the flow of electricity under normal operating conditions and, in the case of a short circuit, to permit the electrification of all conductive metal fittings throughout the boat. Available at most novelty shops.
Clew: 1) Evidence leading to recovery of a missing sail. 2) Indication from the skipper as to what he might do next. 3) Oriental crewmember. 4) What a new sailor often doesn't have any of.
Cloud Bank: Where you store clouds, which gather interest for future use.
Club, Yacht Club, Racing Association: Troublesome seasonal accumulation in costal areas of unpleasant marine organisms with stiff necks and clammy extremities. Often present in large numbers during summer months when they clog inlets, bays, and coves, making navigation almost impossible. The infestations are most serious along the coasts of Conneticut, Massachusetts, and Maine. They can be effectively dislodged with dynamite, but, alas, archaic federal laws rule out this option.
COB: 1). Cash Over Board. 2). Play ducks and drakes with BOAT's
Coiled: Relatively mild upper respiratory ailment commonly contracted at sea by sailors from Brooklyn.
Comfort: A term not used in conjunction with racing yachts (see also Interior).
Command: Mnemonic used to remember how orders at sea are to be given: Confuse Obscure Mispronounce Mumble Abbreviate Nasalize Drool.
Companionway: 1.) Another name for a hole to fall into. (see also Hatch) 2.) A double berth. 3) Narrow channel.
Compass: Navigational instrument that ... indicates the presence of machinery and magnets on board ship by spinning wildly.
Co-Tidal Hour: Not to be confused with coital hour, which is something entirely different and probably more fun.
Course: The direction in which a skipper wishes to steer his boat and from which the wind is blowing. Also, the language that results by not being able to.
Crew: Heavy, stationary objects used on shipboard to hold down charts, anchor cushions in place and dampen sudden movements of the boom.
Cruising: 1). Waterborne pleasure journey embarked on by one or more people. A cruise may be considered successful if the same number of individuals who set out on it arrive, in roughly the same condition they set out in, at some piece of habitable dry land, with or without the boat. 2). Fixing your boat in exotic locations.
Cunningham: 1). A very sly or clever Pig 2). A complicated term for a downhaul.
Current: Tidal flow that carries a boat away from its desired destination, or toward a hazard.
Dangerous Waters: Lying to your spouse.
Dead Reckoning: 1). A course leading directly to a reef. 2). What a Southern Doctor pronounces after a sailor goes to Davy Jone's Locker. 3). Using a map instead of a chart.
Deadrise: Getting up to check the anchor at 0300 or waking up before sunrise.
Deck: A complete set of playing cards.
Deep six: To discard something, specifically to throw it in the water. Water depth is measured in fathoms, six feet to a fathom. The term "deep six" comes from the throwing of the lead to determine water depth and indicates a depth "over six fathoms."
Deviation: 1). Any departure from the Captain?s orders. 2). Shipboard orders given by a landlubber. 3). A ship full of deviates.
Dinghy: 1). Ideally it should have sufficient stability to carry the entire crew at least 50 boat-lengths away from their vessel before foundering... 2). Sound of the ship's bell. 3). Dark, dirty place.
Displacement: Accidental loss. Occurs when you dock your boat and can't find it later..
Distress Signals: International signals which indicate that a boat is in danger. For example, in: American waters: the sudden appearance of lawyers, the pointing of fingers, and repression of memories; Italian waters: moaning, weeping, and wild gesticulations; French waters: fistfights, horn blowing, and screamed accusations; Spanish waters: boasts, taunts, and random gunfire; Irish waters: rhymthic grunting, the sound of broken glass, and the detonation of small explosive devices; Japanese waters: shouted apologies, the exchange of calling cards, and minor self-inflected wounds; English waters: doffed hats, the burning of toast, and the spilling of tea.
Dock: Where you take a sick boat to.
Dockline: Direct telephone access to a physician.
Draft: What you might want to avoid for cold viruses or the military.
Eight Bells: Are heavy.
Emergency mooring lines: Old ropes too rotten to use regularly but too good to throw away.
Engine: Sailboats are equipped with a variety of engines, but all of them work on the internal destruction principle, in which highly machined parts are rapidly converted into low-grade scrap, producing in the process energy in the form of heat, which is used to boil bilge water; vibration, which improves the muscle tone of the crew; and a small amount of rotational force, which drives the average size sailboat at speeds approaching a furlong per fortnight.
Equator: A line circling the earth at a point equidistant from both poles which separates the oceans into the North Danger Zone and the South Danger Zone.
Estimated Position: A place you have marked on the chart where you are sure you are not.
Etiquette: Marine custom establishes a code of social behavior and nautical courtesy for every conceivable occasion. Thus, for example, a boat belonging to another boatman is always referred to as a "scow", a "tub", or a "pig-boat". When one skipper goes aboard another's boat, he does not hesitate to tell him frankly about any drawbacks or disadvantages he finds in comparison to his own craft. Sailors welcome every opportunity to improve their vessels, and so he knows that his remarks will be greatly appreciated. When one sailboat passes another, it is customary for the captain of the passing boat to make a bladderlike sound with his lips and tongue, and for the captain of the passed boat to return the courtesy by offering a smart salute consisting of a quick upward movement of the right hand with the second digit extended.
Fall off: To cause conscious crew members to become frantic and yell "Man overboard".
Fid: Similar to a Marlin Spike, but usually larger, and made of wood. Used in the same way as a Marlin Spike but usually for larger rope and cable. See Marlin Spike.
Figurehead: Decorative dummy found on sailboats. See CAPTAIN.
First Mate: Crew member necessary for skippers to practice shouting instructions to.
Fix: 1) The estimated position of a boat. 2) True position a boat and its crew in are in most of the time.
Flag: Any of an number of signalling pennants or ensigns, designed to be flown upside down, in the wrong place, in the wrong order, or at an inappropriate time.
Flashlight: Tubular metal container used on shipboard for storing dead batteries prior to their disposal.
Fluke: 1). Portion of an anchor that digs securely into the bottom, holding the boat in place. 2). Any occasion when this occurs on the first try.
Flying Bridge: Type of card game played on a sea plane.
Flying jib: Any jib when the sheets have gone overboard.
Foreguy: First guy to the bar.
Foul Wind: 1) Breeze produced by flying turkey or goose. 2) An odor
Freeboard: 1). Food and liquor supplied by the owner. 2). Free lumber. 3). Cruise on a vessel you don't pay for.
Freezing the Balls off a Brass Monkey: A brass monkey is a brass triangle which is put on the ground and used to keep cannonballs in a neat pile or pyramid beside a gun. When the weather gets very cold the brass triangle contracts more than the iron and causes the cannonballs to roll off, hence the saying.
Fuel: Sailboats without auxiliary engines do not require fuel as such, but an adequate supply of a pale yellow carbonated beverage with a 10 percent to 12 percent alcohol content is essential to the operation of all recreational craft.
Fuel Tanks: Giving thanks for having enough fuel on board.
Galley: 1. Ancient: Aspect of seafaring associated with slavery 2. Modern: Aspect of seafaring associated with slavery
Gimbals: Movable mountings often found on shipboard lamps, compasses, etc., which provide dieting passengers an opportunity to observe the true motions of the ship in relation to them, and thus prevent any recently ingested food from remaining in their digestive systems long enough to be converted into unwanted calories.
Give Way Vessel: The boat which, in a collision situation, did not have the right of way.
Great Circle Route: 1). Ship's course when the rudder is jammed or stuck.. 2). Depression left in a seat cushion. 3). Mark around your eye after sailor's pub brawl.
Grinder: Crewmember stationed near the boom and who enjoys swimming. (see boom).
Gybe: A common way to get unruly guests off your boat.
Gybe Set A great way to end up on Port Tack right in front of the whole Fleet that's approaching the mark on Starboard.
Halyard: Something that only breaks or jams when you're winning.
Hanging locker: A small, enclosed space designed to keep foul weather gear wet and to turn all other clothing green.
Hatch: 1). Opening on a boat made to fall in. (see also Companionway) 2). Container on board in which to keep or store eggs. 3). What lookout wears on his head while cruising polar regions.
Hazard: 1.) Any boat over 2 feet in length. 2.) The skipper of any such craft. 3.) Any body of water. 4.) Any body of land within 100 yards of any body of water.
Head: Toilet, square rigged ships sailed down wind (that means the wind blew from the stern to the bow), that was the nature of the beast. With no indoor plumbing sailors would do their thing over the side. No experienced sailor would piss in the wind, so he would go the the head (front) of the ship to take care of his needs.
Head up: Leaving the boat toilet seat up. When boat skipper is female, leaving the head up is a serious offence.
Headway: 1) What you are making if you can't get the toilet to work. 2) Desert the cook makes, similar to "curds 'n whey".
Heave-Ho: What you do when you?ve eaten too much Ho.
Heave to: 1). Second person to get sick. 2). Newcomers quite often find themselves heaving too. 3). What seasick sailors do.
Heavingline: 1). Rope used to hold on to while being sick, often found after making headway. 2) Location next to a rhumb line.
Helmsman: 1). Nut attached to the rudder through a steering mechanism. 2). One who might actually listen to the tactician. 3). Crew member who might enjoy an uncontrollable jibe. (see Boom).
Hydrophobia: Basic test of fundamental sanity.
Inside Overlap: Part of a race that resembles a political debate
Interior: A term not used in conjunction with racing yachts.
Inside Overlap: The part of a race that resembles a political debate.
Jack Lines: "Hey baby, want to go sailing?"
Jib: A dialect of the English language peculiar to certain peoples of African heritage.
Jibe: 1). To speak in jib (see above). 2). To speak an untruth. 3.) Either you like it or you don?t and it gets you.
Keel: 1.) A very heavy depth sounder primarily used on Unamarans (monohulls or leaners) 2.) Term used by 1st mate after too much heel by skipper.
Ketch: 1) Disagreeable clause in boat-purchase contract. 2) Sailboat with good wine in the cabin
Knot: Connection between two or more ropes... having the property that the link cannot be parted or broken in any way other than severing it with a knife, except if it is subjected to steady stress in the course of normal use.
Knot meter: An instrument for measuring the speed with which any line will become tangled.
Landlubber: 1) Anyone on board who wishes he or she were not. 2) Anyone on board who shouldn't be.
Latitude: The number of degrees off course allowed a guest.
Lazy Guy: Most sailors when they're not Racing.
Lazy Jack: 1). Title given to the guy who's crewed on other boats one time only. 2). Item found in trunk of car that has very good tires and/or often left at home by trailer sailors.
Leadership: In maritime use, the ability to keep persons on board ship without resorting to measures which substantially violate applicable state and federal statutes
Leak: A situation calling for LEADERSHIP
Leech: A crewmember that never seems to have a dime when its time to pay for drinks or meals.
Leeward: Brother of Jay Ward, creator of Bullwinkle and Rocky.
Life Line: Phone Call.
Life Preserver: 1. Any personal flotation device that will keep an individual who has fallen off a vessel above water long enough to be run over by it or another rescue craft. 2. A mildewed device for emergency use, stowed under the extra lines and anchors.
Loggerhead: To be at loggerheads; whalers, when a whale was harpooned, would fasten the line to a timber in the boat called a loggerhead, which would take the strain of the whale's pull. Also, to have a disagreement.
Lubber line: Two or more guests waiting to get ashore.
Luff: The Front part of a sail that everyone but the helmsman seems to pay attention to (see also Telltales)
Luff up: Something racers do to each other to catch the back of the fleet Head (see Stern Pulpit)
Marina: Commercial dock facility. Among the few places, under admiralty law, where certain forms of piracy are still permitted, most marinas have up-to-date facilities for the disposal of excess amounts of U.S. currency that may have accumulated on board ship, causing a fire hazard.
Marine Flashlight: Waterproof place to store dead batteries.
Marlin Spike Seamanship: A general term referring to the working of rope, cable, etc. Encompasses tying of knots, bends, lashing and other activities. Sailors, even modern day ones, often take great pride in their marlinspike seamanship. Even on modern missile cruisers, it is not unusual to see a Knot Board, made by a member of the crew, displaying many different kinds of knots, both usefull and decorative.
Mast: A religious service performed at the waterfront.
Mile (Nautical): A relativistic measure of surface distance over water - in theory, 6076.1 feet. In practice, a number of different values for the nautical mile have been observed while under sail, for example: after 4 p.m., approximately 40,000 feet; in winds of less than 5 knots, about 70,000 feet; and during periods of threatening weather in harbor approaches, around 100,000 feet.
Mizzen: An object you can?t find.
Mooring: The act of bringing a boat to a complete stop in a relatively protected coastal area in such a fashion that it can be sailed away again in less than one week's time by the same number of people who moored it without heavy equipment and no more than $100 in repairs.
Motor Sailer: A sailboat that alternates between sail/rigging problems and engine problems, and with some booze in the cabin.
Noserly: What to call the wind direction when it comes from where you're going.
Nun Buoy (pronounced Nun BOY): A religious transvestite.
Oar: Sea-going woman of ill repute
Oar Lock: Security device that sea-going women of ill repute have on their doors.
OD Paint: Paint applied Over Dirt.
Oil: Thick viscous substance poured by sailors on troubled waters in former times, but now more frequently on troubled beaches, troubled marshes and troubled seabirds.
Overboard: No longer On Board ship, usually by falling off of one. One of the limited occasions when disembarkation from the vessel implies a shortening rather than lengthening of the life span of the individual involved.
Painter: A line you use to tow the dingy... also especially useful for preventing Tack.
Passage: Long voyage from A to B, interrupted by unexpected landfalls or stopovers at point K, point Q and point Z.
Passenger: A form of movable internal ballast which tends to accumulate on the leeward side of sailboats once sea motions commence.
Permanent mooring: A sunken boat, anchored.
Pitch or Roll: The ships motion swaying when from side to side. Pitch means to rock fore and aft. Thus, the old salt's crusty remark "roll, roll you son of a bitch, the more you roll, the less you'll pitch."
Points: Traditional units of angular measurement from the viewpoint of someone on board a vessel. They are: Straight ahead of you, right up there; Just a little to the right of the front; Right next to that thing up there; Between those two things; Right back there, look; Over that round doohickey; Off the right corner; Back over there; Right behind us.
Pop the Chute: The sound a Poly Chute makes just as it blows apart.
Port: 1. An alcoholic beverage made from fermented grape juice and served aboard a sailboat. 2. A fine wine, always stowed on the left side of the boat.
Porthole: A glass-covered opening in the hull designed in such a way that when closed (while at sea) it admits light and water, and when open (while at anchor) it admits, light, air, and insects (except in Canadian waters, where most species are too large to gain entry in this manner). Are also found on the starboard side!
Portside: Is reserved for red headed sailors only.
Pratique: Technical maritime term for customs procedure on entering foreign waters. When passing through customs, particularly in the tropics - the most common foreign destination for American pleasure craft - it is customary to display a small amount of that country's official currency in a conspicuous place and to transfer it to the officer who examines the boat's documents during the parting handshake. A nice sharp slap on the back as the captain effects the transfer shows he cares about appearances. And it is by no means out of place for the skipper to add a friendly word or two, such as "Here, Sparky, this is for you. Why don't you go out and buy yourself some joy juice and get stupid?" incidentally, these inspectors are justly proud of their educational attainments, and the savvy boat owner can win some fast friends by remarking with surprise and admiration on their ability to read and write.
Privileged Vessel: The vessel which in a collision was "in the right". If there were witnesses, the owner could bring an admiralty court case - know as a "wet suit" or a "leisure suit" - against the owner of the other boat, and if he proves "shiplash", he could collect a tidy sum.
Prop: What you use your arm for to support your chin.
Propwash: Works best on bright work.
Propeller: Underwater winch designed to wind up at high speed any lines or painters left hanging over the stern.
Pulpit: Somewhere you pray you are going to pick up a mooring buoy.
Quarter berth: Bank reservered for 25 cent coins.
Queeg: Affectionate slang term for ship's captain.
Ram: An intricate docking maneuver sometimes used by experienced skippers.
Racing: Popular nautical contact sport
Rapture of the Deep: Also known as nautical narcosis. Its symptoms include an inability to use common words, such as up, down, left, right, front, and back, and their substitution with a variety of gibberish which the sufferer believes to make sense; a love of small, dark, wet places; an obsessive desire to be surrounded by possessions of a nautical nature, such as lamps made from running lights and tiny ship's wheels; and a conviction that objects are moving when they are in fact standing still. This condition is incurable.
Reef point: The part of a rock sticking out of the water.
Ring Buoy: Otherwise known as a ring bearer in weddings
Rope: There is some confusion over the term rope. Rope is considered to be the bulk source of line. While the rope is stored waiting for use it is properly termed "rope." Once it has been taken from storage and put to use it should then be called line.
Rope ladder: A ladder designed to get you into the water but not back out.
Round Rigger: 1) Opposite of a square rigger. 2) Crew member who hides in a rum barrel.
Round Down: A bad, bad thing for a bowman out on the spinnaker pole.
Round Up: Easiest way to get the oncoming watch on deck.
Rudder: 1). A large, heavy, vertically mounted, hydrodynamically contoured steel plate with which, through the action of a tiller or wheel, it is possible, during brief intervals, to point a sailing vessel in a direction which, due to a combination of effects caused by tide, current, the force and direction of the wind, the size and angle of the waves, and the shape of the hull, it does not wish to go. 2). More Discourteous. Bob was rude, but George was even rudder. 3). Name for people having ruddy complexions.
Running free: Cruising without using the engine.
Rhumbline: Three or more crew waiting for a beverage.
Sailboat Race: Two sailboats going in the same direction.
Sailing 1). The fine art of getting wet and becoming ill, while going nowhere slowly at great expense. 2). Standing fully clothed in an ice-cold shower tearing up boat bucks* as fast as you can go. (*) see also "Boat Bucks"
Sailing language: See COURSE.
Schooner: A sailboat with a fully stocked liquor cabinet in the cabin.
Scupper: 1) Meal after lunch. 2) Place where you eat dinner.
Seabag: Aging mermaid.
Seacock: 1) Nautical rooster. 2) Male sailor's most important piece of equipment.
Seamanship: The ability to get out of a situation that a better sailor would not have gotten into in the first place.
Sea Monster: Mythical giant sea creature... Obviously a preposterous supersti...
Sewerman: A sailor that has a fetish for wet soggy nylon.
Sextant: 1). An entertaining, albeit expensive, device, which, together with a good atlas, is of use in introducing the boatman to many interesting areas of the earth's surface which he and his craft are not within 1,000 nautical miles of. 2). A cover suspended over the cabin and cockpit to shade certain recreational activity. 3). A device for detecting the night-time activity of guests. 4). Canvass shelter devices used while camping when the kids are in school.
Shake a Leg: There was a time when women went to sea with their sailors on certain ships. The crew and their women slept in hammocks, slung on hooks. When the Bos'n rousted out the crew for a sail change or other evolution he would yell "Shake a leg". He could then tell by the leg if it was a crewman that had to be rolled out.
Sheet: 1.) A line made to rip gloves or hands part. Has ability to tangle on anything. 2.) A cool, damp, salty night covering.
Shipshape: A boat is said to be shipshape when every object that is likely to contribute to the easy handling of the vessel or the comfort of the crew has been put in a place from which it cannot be retrieved in less than 30 minutes.
Ship-to-shore Radio: Combination radio transmittereceiver that permits captains and crew members to obtain wrong numbers and busy signals while at sea.
Shoreline: Used to dock boats.
Shower: Due to restricted space, limited water supplies, and the difficulty of generating hot water, showers on board ship are quite different from those taken ashore. Although there is no substitute for direct experience, a rough idea of a shipboard shower can be obtained by standing naked for two minutes in a closet with a large, wet dog.
Shroud: Equipment used in connection with the wake.
Skeg: What sea-going beer comes in.
Slip: Next to last article of clothing a woman removes
Sloop: A sailboat with beer and/or wine in the cabin.
Snatch Block: Men use to spend a lot of time at sea. They must have been shaped very differently in those days
Son of a Gun: Many people use this, with no inkling of the original meaning. Going back to the days of sail, when a woman gave birth on (or under) the gun deck, the child was said to be a son of a gun. Usually the father's name was not known, hence calling some one a son of a gun is short of calling him a bastard.
Sonic Boom: Fast jibe.
Spanner Wrench: One of the most useful tools for engine repair; in come cases, the only suitable tool. Not currently manufactured.
Spinnaker: 1) Large sail used in dead calms to keep the crew busy. 2) An extremely large, lightweight, balloon-shaped piece of sailcloth frequently trailed in the water off the bow in a big bundle to slow the boat down.
Splice: Method of joining two ropes by weaving together the individual strands of which they are composed. The resulting connection is stronger than any knot. Splicing is something of an art and takes a while to master. You can work on perfecting your technique at home by practicing knitting a pair of socks or a stocking cap out of a pound or so of well-cooked noodles.
Spring line: 1) Line purchased at the beginning of the season. 2) Coils of metallic rope.
Square Rigger: 1) Rigger over 30. 2) Sailor who goes to sleep early. 3) Opposite of a round rigger.
Stand On Vessel: Vessel that in a collision was "in the right". If there were witnesses, the owner could bring an admiralty court case - know as a "wet suit" or a "leisure suit" - against the owner of the other boat, and if he proves "shiplash", he could collect a tidy sum.
Starboard: 1.) A motion picture produced by George Lucas. Science Fiction. 2.) A special board used by skippers for navigation (usually with "Port" on the opposite side.) 3) Listless movie actor.
Stem Fitting: The hole made in a competitors boat when your helmsman misjudges a Port/Starboard crossing
Stern: 1). A facial expression frequently seen on the faces of very serious skippers (see also Bulkhead). 2). Way you feel after bashing the dock.
Swell: A wave that?s just great.
Swimming: A form of solo waterbourne navigation, often employed after going Overboard.
Strut: Peculiar way of walking
Submarine: Long sandwich.
Swell: 1) Wave that's just great. 2) Best of something. 3) Mound made by mosquitoes you'll probably scratch.
Tabernacle: Something similar to pulpit, but a different religion.
Tack: 1). To shift the course of a sailboat from a direction far to the right, say, of the direction in which one wishes to go, to a direction far to the left of it. 2). Good manners. 3). A common sticky substance left in the cockpit and on deck by other people's kids, usually in the form of foot- or hand-prints. (See Gybe for removal technique). 4). A maneuver the skipper uses when telling the crew what they did wrong without getting them mad.
Tactician: 1) One who counts screws and nails. 2) The luckiest or sorriest member of a crew. 3) Kind term for a Smart Ass or Arrogant SOB or Dumb Ass or Lucky SOB
Tell tales: 1) Talk about last night on shore. 2) Crew member who lets the guests know that the skipper usually gets seasick. 3) Stories about the skipper's last race.
Throw Line: Excuse used by baseball pitcher after blowing it.
Toe: Stub your "toe"? Well then, it's time to brush up on your nomenclature! In nautical terms, a toe is a catchcleat or snagtackle. A few others: head - boomstop; leg - bruisefast; and hand - blistermitten.
Tiller: Operator of farm equipment.
Topping lift: Wind strong enough to raise a toupee.
Uniform: As worn by yacht club members and other shore hazards, a distinctive form of dress intended to be visible at a distance of at least 50 meters which serves to warn persons in the vicinity of the long winds and dense masses of hot air associated with these tidal bores.
Union Jack: Cousin to Uncle Sam.
Variation: The change in menu effected when the labels have soaked off the canned goods.
Vang: Name of German sea dog.
Varnish: High-fiction coating applied as a gloss over minor details in personal nautical recollections to improve their audience-holding capacity over frequent retellings.
Wake: Similar to an Irish burial.
Weather Helm: Marked tendency of a sailboat to turn into the wind, even when the rudder is centered. This is easily countered by wedging a heavy object against the tiller. See CREW.
Weigh: To weigh anchor means to lift on the anchor until it is clear of the bottom. The instant the anchor is free of the bottom the anchor is said to be aweigh, signifying that the ship is now free to maneuver, as in the U.S Navy song "Anchors Aweigh."
Wench: A thing you grind till it squeals.
Winch: 1). A thing you grind till it squeals or groans. Not to be confused with 'wench', which has a similar definition.. 2). A female practicer of the occult. A sorceress.
Windward: The direction the wind is coming from, also known as a) the way back to land/marina/slip way, b) the direction you'd like to be going in, c) the direction that doesn't involve being stuck on a lee shore d) the direction that will become downwind as soon as you no longer wish to be going that way.
Wharf: Sound made by Vang when he wishes to be fed.
Whelk: Sound made by Vang to show that he doesn't like that dry, lumpy dog food you put in his dish.
Whip: Useful accessory if that dry, lumpy dog food is all you happen to have on board.
Windlass: Condition resulting from successful treatment in a windward.
Windward: Section of hospital for boaters with chronic gas problems.
Yacht: Commonly used to describe any boat prior to its purchase, and by many boat owners to describe their vessel to persons who have never seen it and are likely never to do so.
Yacht Club: Troublesome seasonal accumulation in costal areas of unpleasant marine organisms with stiff necks and clammy extremities. Often present in large numbers during summer months when they clog inlets, bays, and coves, making navigation almost impossible. They can be effectively dislodged with dynamite, but, alas, archaic federal laws rule out this option.
Yacht Broker: Form of coastal marine life found in many harbors in the Northern Hemisphere generally thought to occupy a position on the evolutionalry scale above algae, but somewhat below the cherrystone clam.
Yawl: 1). Southern version of ahoy. 2). A sailboat from Texas, with some good bourbon stored down yonder in the cabin.
Xebec: Small three masted mediterranean sailing vessel or a useful word in Scrabble.
Zeyphyr: A warm, pleasand breeze named after the mythical Greek god of wishful thinking, false hopes, and unreliable forecasts.
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what is hazard ratio for dummies video

Interpreting Hazard Ratios - YouTube EBIT and EBITDA explained simply - YouTube Statistics 101: Multiple Linear Regression, The Very Basics How to Interpret and Use a Relative Risk and an Odds Ratio ... Relative Risk & Odds Ratios - YouTube The Definition of the Hazard Function in Survival Analysis ... Cox proportinal hazards model using SPSS (survival ... Kaplan Meier curve and hazard ratio tutorial (Kaplan Meier ... Hazard Ratios and Survival Curves - YouTube Learn how to set up your data for survival analysis in ...

The hazard ratio, sometimes called a relative hazard, is typically used to compare time to event data between two treatment groups. The hazard ratio of death for the intervention group compared with the control group was 0.46 (0.22 to 0.95). The hazard ratio was derived as the ratio of the hazard of death for the intervention group to the hazard of death for the placebo group across the study The hazard ratio is a measure of the magnitude of the difference between the two curves in the Kaplan–Meier plot, while the P value measures the statistical significance of this difference. These two definitions serve only as starting points for our present goal in arriving at accurate, correct definitions. The following are the correct definitions. The numerical value of the hazard ratio Put another way, a hazard ratio above 1 indicates a covariate that is positively associated with the event probability, and thus negatively associated with the length of survival. In summary, HR = 1: No effect; HR ; 1: Reduction in the hazard HR > 1: Increase in Hazard; Note that in cancer studies: A covariate with hazard ratio > 1 (i.e.: b > 0) is called bad prognostic factor; A covariate Odds Ratio, Hazard Ratio and Relative Risk Janez Stare1 Delphine Maucort-Boulch2 Abstract Odds ratio (OR) is a statistic commonly encountered in professional or scientific medical literature. Most readers perceive it as relative risk (RR), although most of them do not know why that would be true. But since such perception is mostly correct, there is nothing (or almost nothing) wrong with that Put another way, a hazard ratio above 1 indicates a covariate that is positively associated with the event probability, and thus negatively associated with the length of survival. In summary, HR = 1: No effect; HR ; 1: Reduction in the hazard HR > 1: Increase in Hazard; Note that in cancer studies: A covariate with hazard ratio > 1 (i.e.: b > 0) is called bad prognostic factor; A covariate Key facts about the hazard ratio • Hazard is defined as the slope of the survival curve — a measure of how rapidly subjects are dying. • The hazard ratio compares two treatments. If the hazard ratio is 2.0, then the rate of deaths in one treatment group is twice the rate in the other group. The Hazard ratio (HR) is one of the measures that in clinical research are most often difficult to interpret for students and researchers. In this post we will try to explain this measure in terms of its practical use. You should know what the Hazard Ratio is, but we will repeat it again. Let’s take […] Hazard ratio is an instantaneous risk meaning the risk of failure at time t given that the subject has survived up to the beginning of the the time interval (or up to t-1) while relative risk is usually a cumulative risk during the entire follow-up time. Hazard ratio is similar to incidence density ratio (incidence rate ratio) in which the denominator for incidence density is person-time. See hazard ratio (haz′ărd), HR 1. In biostatistics, the calculated likelihood that a particular intervention will make a study outcome more or less likely to occur. A hazard ratio of 1.0 indicates that the variable has no impact on the outcome. A hazard ratio of less than 1.0 indicates that the variable decreases the likelihood of the outcome. A ratio The term hazard ratio is commonly used in medical literature when describing survival data. It is important to realise that survival data are not just used to describe the number of people who survive or die over a period of time. These data are increasingly being used in medical research and statistics to describe how many people can reach a certain point in time without experiencing a hazard

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Interpreting Hazard Ratios - YouTube

In this video, I define the hazard function of continuous survival data. I break down this definition into its components and explain the intuitive motivatio... Learn how to declare your data as survival-time data, informing Stata of key variables and their roles in survival-time analysis. Copyright 2011-2019 StataCo... RR and OR are commonly used measures of association in observational studies. In this video I will discuss how to interpret them and how to apply them to pat... About Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Terms Privacy Policy & Safety How YouTube works Test new features Press Copyright Contact us Creators ... What do EBIT and EBITDA mean? How to calculate EBIT and EBITDA? Why are the financial metrics EBIT and EBITDA important to measure the financial success of a... What if you have more than one independent variable? In this video we review the very basics of Multiple Regression. It is assumed that you are comfortable w... A brief conceptual introduction to hazard ratios and survival curves (also known as Kaplan Meier plots). Hopefully this gives you the information you need to... The Kaplan Meier (Kaplan-Meier) curve is frequently used to perform time-to-event analysis in the medical literature. The Kaplan Meier curve, also known as ... This video wil help students and clinicians understand how to interpret hazard ratios. This video provides a demonstration of the use of the Cox proportional hazards model using SPSS. The data comes from a demonstration of this model within the...

what is hazard ratio for dummies

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